does CFR stand for Case Fatality Rate?

Who still refuses to call this a pandemic. The news from Italy are mostly bad but they don’t match the Chinese data according to ages.

In China we had 80% deaths over 60, in Italy we are 6 out of 6 over 75. This is probably due to Italian population being more healthy in general and older.

Yes

Italy hasn't been infected long enough to have meaningful death numbers yet. I wrote a post in 2p2 trading thread that this thread was extracted from which breaks down down the time to death and progression of the disease. It was the same thing in the "rest of China", they had 0.1% 3 weeks into infection which is now up to 0.7%. Italy should have zero deaths so far except in the super old/quickly killed.

Ok , this makes sense. But did the virus follow the same pattern in China ?

The first two known deaths were from people in their 60s.

Btw I’m not stating anything conclusive here .I’m just seeing the data and commenting what caught my mind and throwing possible hypothesis.

Agree in deferred/advantage accounts perhaps but taxable is another story.

What's the easiest way to make a simple bet that the market hasn't properly priced in the potential effect of this virus on the world economy yet?

Go back in time a few days and buy puts on whatever you like at all time highs.

At this point the best bets are probably on very highly valued computer hardware related stocks (we know there will be a tangible prolonged impact, severe this quarter and next, due to supply chain issues + Asian economy issues). I would love CCL and RCL and similar cruise companies short except for their very very healthy P/E and balance sheets (<10 and growing), especially after being down nearly 10% today.

I like Tesla end of year puts just because they're likely to have a shocker quarter across Asia and Europe and have had a huge irrational run up the last 8 months, and will also be hit very hard in a recession (all their products are luxuries), but that's probably a separate bet.

I actually like CCL at these levels, espeically with that dividend. RCL still a little high. Maybe can short that one.

Balance sheets don't matter whatsoever in a pandemic.

it matters how long a company can hang on before laying people off, cutting investments or selling assets to ensure they stay solvent

their balance sheets = cruise ships.

and i'm sure there's a giant mass of investors lining up to run up the bid on cruise ships right now.

Only 71 dead in China means nothing, they had an unusual high number yesterday because of late reporting so they were due a lower one today.

https://www.nytimes.com/2020/02/24/w...gtype=Homepage

If you're trading often enough to pay all your taxes as short term gains you should be using the same strategy. Long term gains would need to be considered though, yeah.

Analysis of 50k COVID-19 patients finds 4.8% mortality rate and 21.3% severity
https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1....18.20024539v1

I have not read the full paper (published 23 Feb in MedxRiv). Here is the abstract. Worth noting it is a preprint and has not been peer reviewed.

Thoughts on this Moderna company providing the first vaccine to be tested? Obvious spot to long or too late to the party?

Neither. I posted weeks ago every major pharma was already talking to WHO to get their clinical trials in. Vaccine development is way faster than it was during the days of SARS. The biggest expenses are, by magnitudes, clinical trials. An opportunity to accelerate that process and have WHO/CCP foot big chunks of the bill is obviously.... attractive.

They are racing to beat the WHO/CDC ones that are supposed to be ready for trials in... 10 weeks? (They said 3 months a few weeks ago).

Pump and dump, wouldn't touch it here

I am so glad this the forum finally created a thread about this virus.

I figured this would be a great place for me to discuss a strange situation that I got involved with because you guys are a bunch of gamblers and can relate and give me some decent feedback and maybe advice.

Sorry in advance if this is a D rail at my house if you want to move it to some other forum do what you Gotta do but I find this to be an interesting topic of discussion I would like to hear some feedback from 2+2 so here it goes

I made a wacky prop wager with somebody recently they wanted to bet me that there was going to be a pandemic in California on January 28, 2020 we made the wager and I gave them a five day window up until February 3, 2020. He was away during that the coronavirus would spread in California to a pandemic. He asked me for a receipt for his wager that I gave him a little better than 9 to 1 odds on $10. The receipt said California experience is pandemic between the above dates his $10 to my $92 and change.

Moments after he posted up his 10 bucks with Cash App he start showing me articles about how there was a plane that landed at California with some people from China on it that we're about to get quarantined. He started flipping out saying that was proof that he won the bet and I wasn't paying immediately for a couple reasons. I didn't see any reports that there was a pandemic in California at that time and there was only two people that were diagnosed with it previously before those set dates. He ended up freaking out and like getting really angry and just for him to come down I paid him the money but like a day later I said to him But I made a mistake paid him an error and that the wager was not actually one yet. Anyways he continues going on about how he won because there was two people that had been previously diagnosed and how there was a plane that landed after the wager was made and refused to pay it back. So long story short between that gap there was maybe like two or three more people were diagnosed. No pandemic was ever reported in California. So we went back-and-forth via text for the following few days about how each of us thought we won. Eventually I pretty much said keep the money as a gift I wave the white flag my reputation is not worth A few bucks and that it appears that this little bit of money was more important to him then his honesty or reputation. Shortly after I started reading some articles about how California was specifically not in a pandemic status which I shared with him and pretty much flat out demand my money back because A few bucks and that it appears that this little bit of money was more important to him than his honesty or reputation. Shortly after I started reading some articles about how California was specifically not in a pandemic status which I shared with him and pretty much flat out demand my money back because it was paid an error and he did not win the wager. He got really mad at me for going back-and-forth which does make some sense but at the end of the day if the wager didn't win then that's not his money to keep. Mistakes happen in casinos all the time where money Hass to get refunded. Recently about a week or two ago it seems like we came to an agreement that he was going to refund 40 bucks of it and I guess I'm OK with that. So far he hasn't paid anything though I told him to take his time with it as long as I get the money eventually

Anyways this was a good lesson to not do stupid ambiguous prop bets but based on the information here I'm just curious as to what other people think about it and how they would've possibly handle the situation if they were silly enough to get themselves in my shoes. Cheers

you got grimmed

There are strong incentives for companies developing vaccines to raise money now and/or pump their stock price with forward looking statements, so I would be very skeptical, idk about Moderna specifically.

WHO-China joint mission says the virus has peaked in China.

https://www.who.int/dg/speeches/deta...-february-2020

The WHO are basically China's lap-dogs at this point. I wouldn't believe anything those clowns are saying.

last week I played an entire Day 1 with 50-yr old Asian man who had spent three weeks in beijing during january. he showed minor cold symptoms. do i need to be concerned? do the other ~500 runners need to be concerned?

Odds of contracting it in Beijing for three weeks in January: about 1 in 20,000, adjusting for all variables.