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Old Yesterday, 05:18 PM   #10351
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Re: Coronavirus

Wisconsin death rate rises for first time since June 6:

https://www.wbay.com/2020/10/21/wisc...-goes-back-up/
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Old Yesterday, 05:25 PM   #10352
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Re: Coronavirus

Death rate?

CFR or IFR?

If CFR then that is low, if IFR how do they know without universal testing?
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Old Yesterday, 05:33 PM   #10353
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Re: Coronavirus

CFR

Wisconsin is more remote, interior U.S. they didn't get hit hard in the first wave when testing capacity was limited and IFR (perhaps) higher. Most of their cases have been since summer.
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Old Yesterday, 05:36 PM   #10354
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Re: Coronavirus

Quote:
Originally Posted by chezlaw View Post
Anyone who's missing that has been mssing it since March. So much was about avoiding a 2nd wave as we hit winter
Sure, but even people who are accepting of a second wave seem to be mentally referring back to the first wave without realising that this is a longer harder colder meaner wave simply due to the calendar.

This has a lot to do with the first wave kicking butt for a month or so, being an event then fading.

I think a lot of people have internalised this as the process of a wave, and therefore are not cognisant of just how different this wave will be and how its going to be a much longer ongoing event without the its summer now get out of jail free card.
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Old Yesterday, 05:44 PM   #10355
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Re: Coronavirus

Indeed. The level of denial about what we have stupidly walked into is extraordinary. The whole crises has ben marked by denial and a huge dose of wishful thinking as the obvious disaster has unfolded before our eyes.
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Old Yesterday, 06:06 PM   #10356
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Re: Coronavirus

Why did nearly every European country fail to contain what was a fantastic situation (very low corona bought with long lockdowns and luck from weather which Florida/Texas etc didn't have) and keep it under control with contact tracing?

Thoughts, chez?
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Old Yesterday, 06:10 PM   #10357
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Re: Coronavirus

It was cold in Florida and Texas?
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Old Yesterday, 06:19 PM   #10358
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Re: Coronavirus

They all relaxed too quickly. People so wanted to believe it was over once lockdown worked even though it was obviously a sign that lockdown measures were needed to control the virus.

As expected back in March. You may recall it was why it was part of the reason I was defending the later lockdown. But in the UK, gross incompetence meant too many died from infections caught in hospital and care homes. The government couldn't defend it's stragey* and had to do things instead - everythign they did was stupid.

*plenty of other idiots too. Those who said we were too slow to lockdown AND now being too slow to open up, for example.

Quote:
contact tracing?
Specifically on that. They didn't relu on what contact tracing could do, they relied on what they claimed it would be able to do. Like driving very fast because someone is working on developing good enough brakes to slow you down.
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Old Yesterday, 06:32 PM   #10359
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Re: Coronavirus

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Originally Posted by O.A.F.K.1.1 View Post
It was cold in Florida and Texas?
The south has weird seasonal patterns for respiratory viruses that I don't understand. Flu seasons in subtropics seems to progress differently to temperate zones which have defined winters of high spread and summers with near zero spread.

For example, this respiratory virus kills 14,000 people and hospitalizes 177K per year. and has seasonal patterns in Florida that differ from the rest of the US and even differ across Florida's climate regions itself:


Last edited by ToothSayer; Yesterday at 06:38 PM.
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Old Yesterday, 06:44 PM   #10360
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Re: Coronavirus

Probably most flu patients off-season are going to be people with weakened immune systems, elderly in care homes. Most of the state looks normal, but maybe all the retired Villages and nursing home residents in South Florida make their flu season year round?
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Old Yesterday, 08:29 PM   #10361
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Re: Coronavirus

Poland:
7-day moving average CFR increase from less than 2% in September to 7% in October
this was 8% today

*21 day lag


They only have 5% test positivity rate, much more reliable data than U.S. and it's LOL 20% states
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Old Yesterday, 10:09 PM   #10362
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Re: Coronavirus

Quote:
Originally Posted by O.A.F.K.1.1 View Post
Exactly,

Their original position on masks are bad were based on all the studies you quote, which if you tried reading, are relevant to influenza/flu/H1NI

When they realised that C19 behaved differently and had a much higher asymptomatic carrier capacity, they changed their advice to wear masks.

The original incorrect WHO position was absolutely based on the outdated studies you cite. Dated 2009 to 2015.

Thanks for making my argument.
This ToothSayer guy seems to struggle with reading comprehension.
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Old Yesterday, 10:12 PM   #10363
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Re: Coronavirus

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Plenty of people thought corona would be bad. The difference with me was that I was right on every single point early on, merely by looking at the data and reasoning, while the experts like the WHO were wrong on every single point.
And now the script has flipped re:masks while you literally cite the studies that made them wrong and you right ex ante.

Are you brain damaged?
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Old Today, 01:42 AM   #10364
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Re: Coronavirus

It's striking how the infection rate among UK students seems to be declining. Police in the UK not ****ing around though.

Covid-19: Nottingham party students fined 40,000
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Old Today, 02:12 AM   #10365
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Re: Coronavirus

15,000 new cases in Czech Republic, by far a new record. They had 3,000/day beginning of last week and 400 or 500 last month.

Also new record in Poland-- 10,000 cases today, up from 2,000 couple weeks ago.

Germany new record 12,000 and Belgium may do hard lockdown again.

Last edited by Shuffle; Today at 02:19 AM.
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Old Today, 02:22 AM   #10366
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Re: Coronavirus

Seems like all of Europe will do another hard lockdown again November or December
But they will probably do it too late.

U.S. and U.K., I don't think the citizens will comply with a hard lockdown, even when the time for hospital collapse comes and ordered by the government.
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Old Today, 02:58 AM   #10367
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Re: Coronavirus

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Originally Posted by GodgersWOAT View Post
And now the script has flipped re:masks while you literally cite the studies that made them wrong and you right ex ante.

Are you brain damaged?
No sir, you clearly are, as evidenced by the fact that it's too much for you to understand that mask dynamics are very different in summer and winter. Winter has lots of droplet/indoor air/aerosol transmission, summer transmission is nearly entirely prolonged very close contact transmission. People also hate masks in summer and don't wear them properly, they're hot and unpleasant, so they wear them less well.

Indeed, you can see their uselessness during summer as evidenced by low mask UK, Norway, Finland doing better than masked countries over summer, and how the introduction of mask mandates in various countries made no noticeable difference to the soaring rate of infections. There wasn't a tiny blip or a tiny change of slope on the introduction of blanket mask mandates.

I was for masks early on in the pandemic when they could have made a big difference over those few weeks of R=3 spread (when the WHO and CDC were stupidly against them) and think they're absolutely useless and a red herring in warm weather/non flu season, when their droplet transmission reduction benefits are near non existent and outweighed by their many negatives (increased touching and surface spread, false sense of security which reduces distancing and action by governments).

I will likely become pro-mask again when we get closer to cold weather flu season when droplet and aerosol transmission between strangers soars and becomes a meaningful part of potential spread again. I expect your tiny brain to explode at that point.

It is really so hard for you to grasps that masks make sense in the height of flu season with its coughing, sneezing and substantial droplet/aerosol persistence, and don't make much sense out of flu season with near zero droplet/aerosol persistence? And that masks have both positives and negatives, the relative weight of which changes per season?

The data is pretty clear that that's how it is with masks. The published science will catch up with this fact eventually, just like they did (months too late) on my winter take that masks were a good idea then.
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Old Today, 03:26 AM   #10368
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Re: Coronavirus

Does anyone knows any good indian pppoker or pokerbros clubs ?
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Old Today, 04:05 AM   #10369
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Re: Coronavirus

Quote:
Originally Posted by Shuffle View Post
Seems like all of Europe will do another hard lockdown again November or December
But they will probably do it too late.
Short EUR/USD pair?
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Old Today, 04:48 AM   #10370
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Re: Coronavirus

Quote:
Originally Posted by Shuffle View Post
Seems like all of Europe will do another hard lockdown again November or December
But they will probably do it too late.

U.S. and U.K., I don't think the citizens will comply with a hard lockdown, even when the time for hospital collapse comes and ordered by the government.
UK will overwelmingly comply.
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Old Today, 05:52 AM   #10371
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Re: Coronavirus

Would say it's a 50/50 flip whether Belgium does another lockdown at this point. If it happens, will likely be announced between Friday and Wednesday.

It's crazy how much the figures keep growing.

If this is how cold temperatures are going to **** us up, we're in for some dark times.
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