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Coronavirus Coronavirus

10-11-2020 , 04:55 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by RedQueenDream
This certainly seems to be true in Europe where spring heatwaves coincided with the lockdown periods, and corona magically died away, then has re-emerged at exactly the same time as cold/flu as temperatures have dropped.
Yep.

Quote:
How successful do you think the other measures (lockdown/distancing etc) are going to be in a winter setting vs a summer one?
I mean, harsh lockdowns will always work. Anything short of that is an open question and probably depends more on population behavior and existing immunity more than anything. Much of the US for example won't need to lock down because of this high impact summer immunity burn through, which has been highly effective at vaccinating the worst spreader nodes.
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Do we know much about avoiding flu and other virus transmission overall? Seems like in most places they are just everywhere for months with little way of avoiding unless you hibernate or go to another warmer part of the world?
Yeah it's not really possible imo. Best strategies:

1. Be somewhere with high immunity rates from summer burn through
2. Wear an N95 mask and glasses/goggles when you're out in public in winter
3. Go somewhere warm

I'm personally going to be fleeing Europe for the States and maybe Costa Rica
10-11-2020 , 04:55 AM
Also, what is the current consensus on best practice for drug/antibody treatment, if there is one now? thanks ;-)
10-11-2020 , 04:59 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by ToothSayer
You manage to be wrong in every post.

UK and Sweden ended up locking down hard.
HAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHA.

Sweden never had a lockdown that was ever comparable to the UKs and conflating their approach is beyond ridiculous.
10-11-2020 , 05:38 AM
Below shows the whole picture of USA cases per million rolling average from day 1.

Anyone arguing that there "might" have been an uptick in cases from the low from peak on Sep 13th really needs to sit down and think about there super obvious to everyone cognitive biases.

10-11-2020 , 05:45 AM
Also whilst we are on the subject,

UK can never be used as example of lockdowns or X strategy does not work, because X strategy has been an absolutely massive cluster **** of implementation from day 1.

Any strategy is mooted if its implementation is absolutely incompetent as has been the case in the UK.
10-11-2020 , 06:08 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by ToothSayer
The EU is already above US rate, starting from a WAY lower base over summer. Like the idiot Brass who argued with me at the start of the thread, you're not taking into account the lag. I'm looking at reality now while you're comparing infection rates from 4 weeks ago (current daily deaths represent infection rates 4 weeks ago).
The USA will also move up in 4 weeks, how will the EU death rate move over the US death rate in 4 weeks, when currently there are more new infections in USA than in EU? Why doesn't the EU need to move above the USA for your theory to come true?

Quote:
It's you who is gone. You come from the worst death rate country in Europe (far worse than the US), but rather than deal with the losers in your own country, you (and other losers in the EU) attacked the US when you had very low numbers. Now Europe is in a FAR worse position that the US - very low immunity, a much higher R and (now) a higher daily infection rate. That's why you clowns over there are having to restrict again, while 95% the US is doing just fine.
Oh shut up. Belgium is first because our (1) wave 1 was terrible and (2) we are the only country in the world who count as many deaths as we do. We are not even first in Europe in excess death, and you know that, but that doesn't fit your narrative to attack me.
If EU regains control in the coming weeks & Winter, it is guaranteed that USA will catch up to Belgium. What will you say then?

Quote:
What color is the sky in your world? Europe is already worse, and their R is higher, and their (now guaranteed from existing infections) death rate is higher.

Are you going to reflect on what an utter clown you were, attacking the US while you had very low rates (paid for with a bad economy and severe personal freedom restrictions), while your leaders are now dealing with a situation far worse than the USA? It's comical. Europe has done everything wrong, from the initial wave to summer strategy.
You keep saying everything is R while R is lower in USA because the infection is more widely spread. It's comical. You keep hammering on this. EU has now been increasing for weeks but still hasn't caught up with the infection rate of the USA. I do think EU will catch up with USA for a little bit, but with the difference that we will get it down again in a few weeks. USA has no real hope under current assumptions.


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The only thing that matters to me are facts, data and logic.

And of course the US will be safer. Europe has just proven it can't contain spread even with a giant summer head start (paid for with suffering and economic damage).

Meanwhile the Us has a massive summer burn through of its young and spreader nodes, and has 20+% herd immunity in many key cities. And natural recent immunity from slow organic spread (which has a large effect on R), not the initial wave immunity which has a lower effect on R. The US has an R advantage over the EU, ceteris paribus, of maybe 0.3-1 depending on region coming into winter.


Again, what color is the sky in your world?

Europe just went from well under control (paid at great economic and social cost via far stricter lockdowns) to worse than US in 6 weeks. You think their leaders are doing a great job? What is wrong with you?

The US is stable and has far higher immunity with an overall death rate the same as Europe. They're kicking the crap out of Europe in how they've dealt withthis. Pretending they're doing better than the US makes you a fool.

By the way, you're finally seeing that I'm right now why R>>>>>>initial infection base. It was comical that you couldn't understand this even when explained to you.
R is not more important than initial infection base. R is more important long-term, of course. If R is high action is needed. Why is R so much better off in USA right now? R is clearly >1 and increasing in USA, it's not hard to see. The herd immunity crap you keep spouting is bull **** and we'll see what happens in Winter. The trend of the last few weeks certainly is not positive.
10-11-2020 , 07:03 AM
The stupidity here from otherwise moderately intelligent people is incredible.
Quote:
Originally Posted by bbfg
Oh shut up. Belgium is first because our (1) wave 1 was terrible and (2) we are the only country in the world who count as many deaths as we do. We are not even first in Europe in excess death, and you know that, but that doesn't fit your narrative to attack me.
If EU regains control in the coming weeks & Winter, it is guaranteed that USA will catch up to Belgium. What will you say then?
Quote:
R is not more important than initial infection base.
You still think this even though your country looks like the below? What incredible denial. The US is kicking the **** out of Beligum because stable R >>>> initial infection base, and you're still maintaining that R is not more important than the initial infection base? Really?



Using your own logic from earlier, your leaders are clearly incompetent assclowns/losers far worse than Donald Trump. I mean look at that graph! From near zero bought with harsh prolonged lockdowns to over double the rate of the US in 8 weeks. All while wearing masks and "listening to the science". Aren't you glad Belgium is managing corona so well, unlike the awful Trump USA? LOL.
10-11-2020 , 07:05 AM
Corona be like:

10-11-2020 , 08:11 AM
Quote:
It's more that Trump is a very healthy man for his age. He was lucky in the genetic lottery and doesn't drink or smoke. He's shown his health through boundless energy and crazy schedules (compare his work and campaign schedule with basement Joe who's more typical for his age - basically a geriatric). Evidence in favor of this is how early he developed his own antibodies.
HAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHA

I know you only posted that nonsense to try and TRIGGER THE LIBS, but I think it's hilarious how you just can't help say insanely stupid **** to try and create a political argument.
10-11-2020 , 08:21 AM
Trump is a very healthy man for his age, incredible energy and stamina. I'm not even sure how anyone could disagree with that. And the early antibodies he got are at the very early end of the curve and show a good immune response.

But it looks like he was hit hard by corona and is happy to be frank about that:
Quote:
Originally Posted by David Sklansky
Trump's quick recovery, assuming no relapse, seems to have been due to one of four different possible factors or maybe a combination.

1. He was one of the lucky ones his age.

2. Quick recoveries, even for seniors, are more common than we think because many of those cases don't even get reported.

3. His experimental drug or drugs did the trick.

4. He got big time attention and drugs that are already in use within a very short time from when a negative test turned positive.

Which of those possibilities make the most sense? And do you agree that if the answers can be trusted, its a good idea to figure out which of those four above played the biggest role, by delving deeply into Trumps experience? An experience we have access to now rather than later because of the fortuitous fact that the president got infected. (Some don't agree but I have no way of knowing if they are smart.)
Trump himself has spoken candidly about this on Rush Limbaugh recently. He credits the drugs. Read the whole thing if you want, but here are the key bits:

Quote:
Because I was in not great shape and we have a medicine that held me, that fixed me. It’s a great medicine, and had I not gotten it, Rush, it would have been in line for another year, probably, before they brought it out. Great company — two great companies, actually, make it — you know, make very similar things. But they both work equally well. And we’re gonna send it…

We’re already sending it starting the process. Hundreds of thousands of vials are being sent to the hospitals all over the country. People are gonna get immediately better like I did. I mean, I feel better now than I did two weeks ago. It’s crazy. And I recovered immediately, almost immediately. I might not have recovered at all from COVID.
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But, no, this is the most amazing thing that’s happened, and I was asking the doctors today — 11 guys, great people, the heads of the biggest hospitals.

It’s amazing. I guess the president has a lot of power, but everybody shows up. “What do you do?” “I’m the head of Johns Hopkins,” or (chuckles), “I’m the head of…” It’s always like that, but they’re very brilliant people, and I said, “How bad was I?” They said, “You could have been very bad. You were going into a very bad phase.” So it wasn’t like it was just gonna be like with the kids where they get it and they get sniffles and they’re better two days later, right?

This looks like it was gonna be a big deal — and you know what that means, right? That means bad, ’cause I’ve lost five people, at least five people that were friends of mine. One in particular, like, an incredible guy who went in there, went into the hospital; he was dead within three days. And I’m just saying that we have something that will cure this now. And a cure. And without us, without the Trump administration, this would never have happened.

We poured money into these cures, and we poured money into the vaccines.
Quote:

To me, it’s the biggest story. But the press doesn’t even want to report that. They talk about the vaccines. And the vaccines are very important, Rush. But this is more important because we can go in the hospitals and clean out the hospitals literally with people that… The vaccines are very important. It’s a different stage.

RUSH: Well, yeah, this is the antibodies that you speak of.

THE PRESIDENT: This is the antibody. This is the antibody, and Regeneron. It’s the most unbelievable thing I’ve ever seen. And I had a meeting with doctors today. You know, it’s always… The good thing about when our president, 11 doctors show up, and they’re all the head of Johns Hopkins and this and that. They’re great people. But Walter Reed is an incredible place. These 11 guys came in today.

They showed me stats. It’s amazing. I don’t know I would have… I don’t know that… You know, I was not in the greatest of shape.
So it seems pretty clear from this that he was in a bad way, rapidly declining and that Regeneron is the reason he immediately recovered. It's being fast tracked to all hospitals.

If the mainstream media was less severely gone in the head, this would be a big story.
10-11-2020 , 08:57 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by David Sklansky
Trump's quick recovery, assuming no relapse, seems to have been due to one of four different possible factors or maybe a combination.

1. He was one of the lucky ones his age.
I am pretty sure that the percentage of people over 70 who get coronavirus and don't get really sick from it is around 95 percent. And that a lot of the really serious cases come from nursing homes, which have their own dynamic.

So I wouldn't call Trump lucky. No one has died from the White House cluster, and I think only one person is seriously ill. So out of 34 cases, only one is serious, which seems to be right where that number should be given the age range of the people infected.

The drugs he took may have had some effect, but it's almost impossible to tell since no one knows if they helped, hurt or didn't have any effect at all on his own immune response to the pathogen.

I do know that big pharma is extremely happy right now because the moAb market is going to get huge, and that is a license for them to print money. They love those treatments because they are really expensive and have minor side effects. The problem is that their efficacy is very difficult to determine until you get a really large sample size, but the only way you do that is to start pumping it into large groups of people, which is now likely to happen.
10-11-2020 , 09:00 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by ToothSayer
So it seems pretty clear from this that he was in a bad way, rapidly declining and that Regeneron is the reason he immediately recovered. It's being fast tracked to all hospitals.

If the mainstream media was less severely gone in the head, this would be a big story.
So why hasn't Crede Bailey had the same miraculous recovery?

Maybe google him and get back to me.
10-11-2020 , 09:04 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by ToothSayer
The stupidity here from otherwise moderately intelligent people is incredible.



You still think this even though your country looks like the below? What incredible denial. The US is kicking the **** out of Beligum because stable R >>>> initial infection base, and you're still maintaining that R is not more important than the initial infection base? Really?



Using your own logic from earlier, your leaders are clearly incompetent assclowns/losers far worse than Donald Trump. I mean look at that graph! From near zero bought with harsh prolonged lockdowns to over double the rate of the US in 8 weeks. All while wearing masks and "listening to the science". Aren't you glad Belgium is managing corona so well, unlike the awful Trump USA? LOL.
Nowhere in my post did I say Belgium was currently in better shape than USA. Comparing Belgium to USA is not that relevant, Belgium is more like a crowded US state than USA. Comparing Europe or EU to USA is a much better metric. Both Europe & EU will most likely catch up to USA in new cases per day in the next week, but we are still below USA rn. Which was my point and you ignored.

I have said itt before that Europe and Belgium specifically did stupid things in August & September, and we are now paying the price for that. The difference is that Europe & Belgium are trying to resolve it, though to be fair in a flawed way since they want to protect the economy. USA leadership is basically "live, love, laugh, wash your hands". The new EU wave is worse than I anticipated (who was saying end of August we're in trouble), it's really bad. But major measures are active across Europe now, and more will follow if things don't get under control.

USA is guaranteed to still look bad in a month or 2 months, unless drastic changes happen.

At least if Trump loses in November you can start blaming his loss for things spinning out of control, which they will be.
10-11-2020 , 09:32 AM
https://www.news.com.au/world/corona...1b297731c3da74

Coronavirus: WHO backflips on virus stance by condemning lockdowns
10-11-2020 , 09:48 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by TooCuriousso1
https://www.news.com.au/world/corona...1b297731c3da74

Coronavirus: WHO backflips on virus stance by condemning lockdowns
Is that legit though? I've seen it on exactly two sites, and less than reputable ones.
10-11-2020 , 11:11 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by ToothSayer
Mike Haven has gotten involved so no more politics. Back to business
Quote:
Originally Posted by ToothSayer
It's more that Trump is a very healthy man for his age. He was lucky in the genetic lottery and doesn't drink or smoke. He's shown his health through boundless energy and crazy schedules (compare his work and campaign schedule with basement Joe who's more typical for his age - basically a geriatric). Evidence in favor of this is how early he developed his own antibodies.
.
10-11-2020 , 11:23 AM
David Sklansky literally asked about Trump's health and how it factored into his recovery, you illiterate buffoon.
10-11-2020 , 11:30 AM
Sklansky's post was not political, you stupid twisted bag of attention-seeking ****.
10-11-2020 , 03:19 PM
How do you put someone on Ignore? Not in the FAQ and I don't see the option when I view a member's profile.
10-11-2020 , 08:23 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Borish Johnson
How do you put someone on Ignore? Not in the FAQ and I don't see the option when I view a member's profile.
User Lists on the profile.
10-11-2020 , 08:31 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Shuffle
47,000 new cases, and six states (CT, KS, MI, MO, NH, and RI) did not even report today. Despite known weekend drop-off, huge increase compared to 38,000 cases full data last Sunday.

Second wave is definitely here.

This isnt hard. Every place that has gotten complacent and started opening up indoor activities has seen a spike in cases.
10-11-2020 , 11:03 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by David Sklansky
Trump's quick recovery, assuming no relapse, seems to have been due to one of four different possible factors or maybe a combination.

1. He was one of the lucky ones his age.

2. Quick recoveries, even for seniors, are more common than we think because many of those cases don't even get reported.

3. His experimental drug or drugs did the trick.

4. He got big time attention and drugs that are already in use within a very short time from when a negative test turned positive.

Which of those possibilities make the most sense? And do you agree that if the answers can be trusted, its a good idea to figure out which of those four above played the biggest role, by delving deeply into Trumps experience? An experience we have access to now rather than later because of the fortuitous fact that the president got infected. (Some don't agree but I have no way of knowing if they are smart.)
i believe its a mix of all four and the fact that hes been taking hydroxychloroquine ( if you remove the politics) from what ive read its mostly a zinc ionophore and the relationship of zinc and d3 and how poorly people do with covid who are deficient vitamin d. That and having access to probably top notch healthcare his whole life which probably put him in a less compromised state going into it. also maybe he eats healthier than he leads on but i doubt it. also cross immunities maybe he was fortunate to already have something similar to covid 19 enough to see cross immunities.
10-12-2020 , 08:12 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by fishfood69er
i believe its a mix of all four and the fact that hes been taking hydroxychloroquine ( if you remove the politics) from what ive read its mostly a zinc ionophore and the relationship of zinc and d3 and how poorly people do with covid who are deficient vitamin d.
There have been a tremendous number of studies on HCQ of varying quality (I am not going to pretend I'm anything but a layman on judging a study's quality). It has been looked at probably more than any other drug to date for this disease. This is a small collection of results from the last week alone

https://nieuws.kuleuven.be/en/conten...vipiravir-does

https://blogs.sciencemag.org/pipelin...0/09/hard-data

https://www.nejm.org/doi/full/10.1056/NEJMoa2022926

We can talk about early intervention RCTs too, with or without zinc, since this is what so many people claimed was needed

https://www.nejm.org/doi/full/10.1056/NEJMoa2016638

https://academic.oup.com/cid/advance...aa1009/5872589

https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1....15.20151852v1

There's.just.nothing.there. I am not aware of a country continuing to use it prevalently as part of standard of care anymore. Spain was one of the last holdouts and they have also stopped

https://www.usatoday.com/story/news/...ad/3311483001/

The hard data on Remdesivir also proves it's a pretty modest benefit- something but not much. Not even close to the game changer it was touted to be.
10-12-2020 , 08:43 AM
When he said (remove the politics) what he actually meant was (remove the science).
10-12-2020 , 09:14 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Borish Johnson
How do you put someone on Ignore? Not in the FAQ and I don't see the option when I view a member's profile.
Step one:



Step two:


      
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