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Originally Posted by ToothSayer
The EU is already above US rate, starting from a WAY lower base over summer. Like the idiot Brass who argued with me at the start of the thread, you're not taking into account the lag. I'm looking at reality now while you're comparing infection rates from 4 weeks ago (current daily deaths represent infection rates 4 weeks ago).
The USA will also move up in 4 weeks, how will the EU death rate move over the US death rate in 4 weeks, when currently there are more new infections in USA than in EU? Why doesn't the EU need to move above the USA for your theory to come true?
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It's you who is gone. You come from the worst death rate country in Europe (far worse than the US), but rather than deal with the losers in your own country, you (and other losers in the EU) attacked the US when you had very low numbers. Now Europe is in a FAR worse position that the US - very low immunity, a much higher R and (now) a higher daily infection rate. That's why you clowns over there are having to restrict again, while 95% the US is doing just fine.
Oh shut up. Belgium is first because our (1) wave 1 was terrible and (2) we are the only country in the world who count as many deaths as we do. We are not even first in Europe in excess death, and you know that, but that doesn't fit your narrative to attack me.
If EU regains control in the coming weeks & Winter, it is guaranteed that USA will catch up to Belgium. What will you say then?
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What color is the sky in your world? Europe is already worse, and their R is higher, and their (now guaranteed from existing infections) death rate is higher.
Are you going to reflect on what an utter clown you were, attacking the US while you had very low rates (paid for with a bad economy and severe personal freedom restrictions), while your leaders are now dealing with a situation far worse than the USA? It's comical. Europe has done everything wrong, from the initial wave to summer strategy.
You keep saying everything is R while R is lower in USA because the infection is more widely spread. It's comical. You keep hammering on this. EU has now been increasing for weeks but still hasn't caught up with the infection rate of the USA. I do think EU will catch up with USA for a little bit, but with the difference that we will get it down again in a few weeks. USA has no real hope under current assumptions.
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The only thing that matters to me are facts, data and logic.
And of course the US will be safer. Europe has just proven it can't contain spread even with a giant summer head start (paid for with suffering and economic damage).
Meanwhile the Us has a massive summer burn through of its young and spreader nodes, and has 20+% herd immunity in many key cities. And natural recent immunity from slow organic spread (which has a large effect on R), not the initial wave immunity which has a lower effect on R. The US has an R advantage over the EU, ceteris paribus, of maybe 0.3-1 depending on region coming into winter.
Again, what color is the sky in your world?
Europe just went from well under control (paid at great economic and social cost via far stricter lockdowns) to worse than US in 6 weeks. You think their leaders are doing a great job? What is wrong with you?
The US is stable and has far higher immunity with an overall death rate the same as Europe. They're kicking the crap out of Europe in how they've dealt withthis. Pretending they're doing better than the US makes you a fool.
By the way, you're finally seeing that I'm right now why R>>>>>>initial infection base. It was comical that you couldn't understand this even when explained to you.
R is not more important than initial infection base. R is more important long-term, of course. If R is high action is needed. Why is R so much better off in USA right now? R is clearly >1 and increasing in USA, it's not hard to see. The herd immunity crap you keep spouting is bull **** and we'll see what happens in Winter. The trend of the last few weeks certainly is not positive.