Two Plus Two Publishing LLC
Two Plus Two Publishing LLC
 

Go Back   Two Plus Two Poker Forums > >

Notices

Business, Finance, and Investing Making money, investing in markets, and running businesses

Reply
 
Thread Tools Display Modes
Old 09-15-2020, 08:27 PM   #9326
Borish Johnson
enthusiast
 
Join Date: Apr 2020
Posts: 83
Re: Coronavirus

Thought this would be of interest to some. Basically a write-up for hospitals on how to treat this. The MATH+ protocol I've heard mentioned a bunch here and there so it's getting used to some degree.

https://www.evms.edu/media/evms_publ...9_Protocol.pdf
Borish Johnson is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 09-15-2020, 08:40 PM   #9327
RikaKazak
Carpal \'Tunnel
 
Join Date: Jul 2005
Posts: 9,572
Re: Coronavirus

Quote:
Originally Posted by onemoretimes View Post
It's not even just about the economy. It's about the development of the kids. They have them sitting on computers now doing "virtual learning" instead of school and keeping them from playing sports. Kids need social contact to develop properly. And we are taking it from them because grandma might get sick. What needs to happen is grandma do everything virtually and let the kids go about their business.
100% this.

In March we didn't know, so it was wise to over isolate over prepare etc. But now we do know, and it's not a big deal at all for kids. Stop crippling our kids so 87 year old grandma can live 2 more years. If she would rather isolate she can, if she says, "I've lived long enough, if I get it I get it"...like my dad...then that's their choice. But not allowing second graders back to school in September is just soy boy mentality.
RikaKazak is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 09-15-2020, 10:32 PM   #9328
JoeC2012
veteran
 
Join Date: May 2012
Location: Suplex City
Posts: 2,297
Re: Coronavirus

Quote:
Originally Posted by RikaKazak View Post
just soy boy mentality.
Lol imagine being over 21 and saying this
JoeC2012 is online now   Reply With Quote
Old 09-16-2020, 12:07 AM   #9329
RikaKazak
Carpal \'Tunnel
 
Join Date: Jul 2005
Posts: 9,572
Re: Coronavirus

Quote:
Originally Posted by JoeC2012 View Post
Lol imagine being over 21 and saying this
Low T is a problem plaguing this generation of men. It causes them to be weak, scared, and frantic. (Basically causes them to think emotionally instead of logically)

21-55 year old men that are scared of corona in September probably have a really high chance of being low T. (Now if they interact with a high risk individual I get it, but if you’re a 35 year old healthy male and afraid, you’re just a pussy at this stage).
RikaKazak is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 09-16-2020, 01:05 AM   #9330
JoeC2012
veteran
 
Join Date: May 2012
Location: Suplex City
Posts: 2,297
Re: Coronavirus

Quote:
Originally Posted by RikaKazak View Post
Low T is a problem plaguing this generation of men. It causes them to be weak, scared, and frantic. (Basically causes them to think emotionally instead of logically)

21-55 year old men that are scared of corona in September probably have a really high chance of being low T. (Now if they interact with a high risk individual I get it, but if you’re a 35 year old healthy male and afraid, you’re just a pussy at this stage).
This is some 4chan ****, I have never in my life heard a successful/well adjusted guy blame his or the world's problems on lack of testosterone
JoeC2012 is online now   Reply With Quote
Old 09-16-2020, 01:11 AM   #9331
pontylad
banned
 
pontylad's Avatar
 
Join Date: Sep 2008
Location: meh, fr, 6 max or hu?! :S:S
Posts: 8,410
Re: Coronavirus

Quote:
Originally Posted by RikaKazak View Post
Low T is a problem plaguing this generation of men. It causes them to be weak, scared, and frantic. (Basically causes them to think emotionally instead of logically)

21-55 year old men that are scared of corona in September probably have a really high chance of being low T. (Now if they interact with a high risk individual I get it, but if you’re a 35 year old healthy male and afraid, you’re just a pussy at this stage).
What ****ing nonsense.
pontylad is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 09-16-2020, 04:35 AM   #9332
O.A.F.K.1.1
Ted Patrick
 
O.A.F.K.1.1's Avatar
 
Join Date: Dec 2007
Location: Deep Coma
Posts: 23,768
Re: Coronavirus

Meat heads itt.
O.A.F.K.1.1 is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 09-16-2020, 08:53 AM   #9333
Cuepee
veteran
 
Cuepee's Avatar
 
Join Date: Feb 2010
Posts: 2,079
Re: Coronavirus

Quote:
Originally Posted by ToothSayer View Post
This is completely wrong. The baseline is almost irrelevant and it's only the R that matters. Why? Because exponentiation is far more powerful. Let's say the US has 5x the active cases of Europe right now. Let's say some moderate level of distancing remains (which it will).

After 15 weeks of late fall and winter:

100,000 * 1.8^ 15 = 674 M (the entire population of Europe)
500,000 * 1.2^15 = 7.7M (not many people at all)

The difference caused by partial immunity is incredible. A lot of key areas in the US are at 20% infected, some of the very high spread communities like minorities over 30%, and the effect on R is even higher - like 30-50% - due to the fact that it's the most social/active/irresponsible nodes now immune. Thus if R is 3 without distancing it's going to be at 0.5-1 lower in the US. That's huge. the difference between a hospitals-overwhelmed hard lockdown pandemic and a manageable slow burn.

This has all been modeled by the UK influenza expert group in the UK back in March; here is what I've described above in graph form according to expert influenza modellers:



You can see how the "burn through in a manageable way in summer" second wave is far less severe, and total deaths far lower, than the "get it very low through summer" strategy that Europe followed.

What's more, the US situation can easily be contained by marginally increasing restrictions (see for example Texas and Florida among others which went into rapid decline when this was done) in a manageable way that doesn't mess up lives and economies. That option isn't open to the lower immunity, higher R communities come winter.

People don't intuitively understand exponential growth which is why most people (including experts) comically screwed up the analysis and impact of this when it was first spreading. You're making the same mistake above.
I always get irked by people speaking in absolutes but I will try to put that aside.


But lets first simply address that first point.

I understand how the exponential will close the distance, GIVEN ENOUGH TIME, but you are putting in some massively flawed assumptions.

First off you assume these countries would see the exponential explosion happening in real time and do nothing to counter it.

Second you assume the US will not see directional changes and will continue to fall.

The US, due to very poor management is still, in most regions dealing with its first wave. We have seen almost everywhere, that when you beat that first wave down and seem to have it under control, it comes back and R starts to rise as things re-open more and more.

So Georgia, Florida, Texas, etc can still look forward to the types of resurgences Europe is seeing and this time in the Fall/Winter months.

What I am saying is that you are making almost every 'good outcome' assumption based on the US and almost every 'bad outcome' assumption based on Europe in an attempt to frame it as "US doing great, everyone else is doing badly' and that is nonsense.

None of those countries would want to change spots with the US heading into the Fall/Winter and have this mass of ALREADY infected populace walking around and all the NEW DAILY CASES being added as opposed to a massively lower baseline that when the R again starts to rise they have so few cases that they have time to check it again.


You need only look at Canada as an example. They squashed the virus before the reopening. Things really started to rise in each province with R spiking but with so few cases they have been able to gradually (without reclosing) been able to bend those curves back down.

It is the LOW BASELINE that allowed that time and made it such that they did not have to resort to extreme measures again.


The US with its exceptionally high baseline has almost no room for error. You see an uptick or change in R at those already sky high levels, and it could instantly put the healthcare system at risk of tipping over.

So your conclusions seem far more 'optimistic' in all assumptions re the USA and assuming worst case in all other, in an attempt to frame the US as handling this great and others not. I will leave it to others to figure out the 'why'.
Cuepee is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 09-16-2020, 08:55 AM   #9334
Borish Johnson
enthusiast
 
Join Date: Apr 2020
Posts: 83
Re: Coronavirus

Quote:
Originally Posted by RikaKazak View Post
Low T is a problem plaguing this generation of men. It causes them to be weak, scared, and frantic. (Basically causes them to think emotionally instead of logically)

21-55 year old men that are scared of corona in September probably have a really high chance of being low T. (Now if they interact with a high risk individual I get it, but if you’re a 35 year old healthy male and afraid, you’re just a pussy at this stage).
Beyond parody
Borish Johnson is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 09-16-2020, 09:17 AM   #9335
chezlaw
Limey Bastard
 
chezlaw's Avatar
 
Join Date: Jan 2004
Location: London
Posts: 39,618
Re: Coronavirus

Quote:
Originally Posted by ToothSayer View Post
Actually I'm talking about the future/winter wave. Do you disagree with the above?

And yes it's hilarious that the self righteous Euroclowns are now getting clobbered by the virus while the US numbers go down (the US basically played out the UK SAGE expert working group advice on how to avoid a devastating winter second wave, while Europe patted themselves on the back), but that has exactly zero to do with my post above. That's your own insecurity.
No comment on other countries than the UK but yes the Experts were very good. Execution has been awful. Unfortunately I'd love this post to look foolish but it's seems as much the statement of the obvious now as it did a couple of months ago:
Quote:
Originally Posted by chezlaw View Post
Okay so you and no doubt others think the divergence from the advice is correct.

I don't see it like you do at all. The opening up is in it's early stages and so far the contact tracing has been able to cope. That doesn't imply that as the opening up continues, the furlough scheme winds down and the schools go back that the contact tracing wont get overwhelmed. If if it does get overwhelmed then cases will start to rise dramatically and winter will be round the corner.
The system is at, if not past, breaking point, schools are barely back, universities are about to go back. Business are going back. And winter is almost here.

We need a near miracle now because otherwise the winter wave is going to be appalling in the UK. Not making a political point about the pros and cons of brexit either way but as an added bonus we have what was, until recently the biggest political upheaval of our lifetime, slap bang in the middle of it.
chezlaw is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 09-16-2020, 09:20 AM   #9336
Cuepee
veteran
 
Cuepee's Avatar
 
Join Date: Feb 2010
Posts: 2,079
Re: Coronavirus

The argument I address with Tooth above parallels what Trump and his people were trying to paint in early August.

In early August S.Korea started to have a rapid rise in R and cases from their almost zero baseline. Trump tried to suggest they were doing worse and that is by arguing the absolute numbers are not what matters.

That is a BS argument. The reason exponential growth is a threat as it has the POTENTIAL to result in high absolute numbers that MIGHT overwhelm the healthcare system in the future if left unchecked.

That is NOT worse than having already high enough numbers that any turn in R could almost immediately overwhelm your healthcare facilities as the US has.

Look at the chart below. Yes S.Korea has some big growth in early August. But with the baseline so low it had very little impact and more importantly, they had lots of time to bend the curve.

THAT is why having a lower baseline. going into Fall/Winter is so important and you have heard almost all the US top healthcare officials continually repeating that.



Pretending anyone would want to be in the US position and not S.Korea in early Aug by ignoring absolute numbers and only looking at growth is asinine. Just as doing so now going into the Fall/Winter is also asinine.

And make no mistake as I am not saying an exponential R is not a problem, but what I am saying is countries now understand it as a warning bell and with a low baseline can and do react and change it, as they have the low baseline and the time.

Last edited by Cuepee; 09-16-2020 at 09:32 AM.
Cuepee is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 09-16-2020, 10:21 AM   #9337
ToothSayer
Carpal \'Tunnel
 
ToothSayer's Avatar
 
Join Date: Jul 2015
Location: BFI Thought Leader
Posts: 11,497
Re: Coronavirus

You need to read more and write less.
ToothSayer is online now   Reply With Quote
Old 09-16-2020, 10:24 AM   #9338
ToothSayer
Carpal \'Tunnel
 
ToothSayer's Avatar
 
Join Date: Jul 2015
Location: BFI Thought Leader
Posts: 11,497
Re: Coronavirus

Quote:
Originally Posted by chezlaw View Post
No comment on other countries than the UK but yes the Experts were very good. Execution has been awful.
No, the experts in the UK were the world's greatest morons who needlessly killed a lot of people (and would have been more if not for public pressure). They assumed that eradication or keeping it very low was impossible (they were wrong) and took the worst of both worlds as a result: initial high death and then extended extreme restrictions such that both people and the economy are fatigued coming into winter, without any of the US low-death summer burn to get the benefit of immunity.
ToothSayer is online now   Reply With Quote
Old 09-16-2020, 10:50 AM   #9339
tgiggity
Pooh-Bah
 
tgiggity's Avatar
 
Join Date: Oct 2016
Location: Rosarito
Posts: 4,738
Re: Coronavirus

Quote:
Originally Posted by ToothSayer View Post
You need to read more and write less.
tgiggity is online now   Reply With Quote
Old 09-16-2020, 12:07 PM   #9340
BCI23
grinder
 
Join Date: Jun 2008
Location: MN
Posts: 562
Re: Coronavirus

Quote:
Originally Posted by ToothSayer View Post
What's dumb about this? This summer has been amazing for corona containment in the US. It's burned through a large proportion of the most socially active nodes in most major US cities.

In the first wave through blue states, it burned through 30% of some suburbs. Most of the high spread socially infected nodes and high-spread groups (like minorities) as well as the least socially responsible/most touchy feely are now immune. High spread minority suburbs like Kings and Queens hit 30% immunity rates; that's enough to reduce R from 3 to 1.8 or so and 1.3 or so with minor social distancing. That's the difference between hospitals overflowing and a slow manageable burn that infects relatively few people all winter.

In the southern wave in summer it inoculated many of the young and socially active and minorities in the southern states (the highest spreaders), with the lowest possible death rates.

R has been reduced enough that the US probably does not have to shut back down; some minor distancing will be enough to keep it manageable. Europe is in a far worse situation for the coming winter. It's burnt through too few (with a high death rate) such that they've barely changed R and are staring at a big second wave.
As just a guy who just watches the trends and the data, i agree with TS. This virus seems to be so contagious that there is nothing you can do to stop it from eventually spreading everywhere, its just a matter of time. Areas of the US that have been hit very hard (NY/NJ, AZ) seem to have infected enough of the population to dramatically slow the spread.

Most countries in Europe have a reported 5k-8k cases per 1m of population, about 1/4th of the reported penetration of the US. The surge we are seeing in europe isn't surprising to me as i don't think this virus can be contained, you can only delay its inevitable spread. Europe suppressed the virus all spring and summer but eventually areas slip up because people don't want to be locked down forever and the virus runs its course. It appears the inevitable has arrived in Europe where as the US let it run its course all spring and summer in most parts of the country. Just my opinion of course.
BCI23 is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 09-16-2020, 12:11 PM   #9341
BCI23
grinder
 
Join Date: Jun 2008
Location: MN
Posts: 562
Re: Coronavirus

Seedless, how scared of the virus are you today in September? I think everyone was uneasy about it in Feb/Mar when we knew very little about it.
BCI23 is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 09-16-2020, 12:26 PM   #9342
wheelflush
veteran
 
wheelflush's Avatar
 
Join Date: Nov 2006
Location: maggie's farm
Posts: 2,272
Re: Coronavirus

Quote:
Originally Posted by ToothSayer View Post
I would guess the lack of exercise, normal life and socializing from distancing and lockdowns will have a greater long term impact on the young than corona will. By a big margin.
my kids weren't going outside anyway, but these wildfires aren't helping any. their childhood memories are going to be confined to 4 walls and a screen, reruns on netflix. no mentors, no coaches, no field trips, no church, no scouting, no sports, no dating, no bands. adolescents need exposure to the world. this is the opposite of that.
wheelflush is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 09-16-2020, 12:35 PM   #9343
Seedless00
journeyman
 
Seedless00's Avatar
 
Join Date: Mar 2020
Posts: 344
Re: Coronavirus

Quote:
Originally Posted by BCI23 View Post
Seedless, how scared of the virus are you today in September? I think everyone was uneasy about it in Feb/Mar when we knew very little about it.
Yea, not worried about it that much now. In Feb/March I was scared though (I have no shame in that and I admit it). I'd rather be scared of a new virus then be ignorant and just think "it's just the flu!" especially considering what we saw in Wuhan and Italy with hospitalizations. I think the introduction of vaccines has made humans desensitized to viruses (why we probably have such an anti-vax sentiment here in the U.S). It was completely rational to be at least somewhat worried back in Jan - March.

Last edited by Seedless00; 09-16-2020 at 12:49 PM.
Seedless00 is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 09-16-2020, 01:22 PM   #9344
Seedless00
journeyman
 
Seedless00's Avatar
 
Join Date: Mar 2020
Posts: 344
Re: Coronavirus

I tend to view a lot of the "look, it was not that lethal and therefore there was nothing to worry about" crowd in a similar way that I view degenerate/bad poker players, they are outcome oriented minded. It's like the poker player that calls of his entire stack on the turn with only an 18% probability of actually winning on the river. When he/she hits one of those 9 outs on the river, they therefore think they made the correct play because they won the hand. Another thing though with these types of people is that their analysis was not even correct anyways, these same people were saying the virus is less lethal than the flu early on, or they would say it's just as lethal as the flu. The thing you will find with degenerates though is they will never admit they were wrong, and they tend to think emotionally versus analytically/strategically. These is why I could care less about what these people think, they think "we got this right" when in reality they're just chimps.

Last edited by Seedless00; 09-16-2020 at 01:28 PM.
Seedless00 is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 09-16-2020, 01:28 PM   #9345
Shuffle
Carpal \'Tunnel
 
Shuffle's Avatar
 
Join Date: Jan 2011
Posts: 10,910
Re: Coronavirus

Quote:
Originally Posted by Seedless00 View Post
I tend to view a lot of the "look, it was not that lethal and therefore there was nothing to worry about" crowd
The fatality rate will increase significantly this Fall and Winter from the drop in temperatures.
Shuffle is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 09-16-2020, 01:46 PM   #9346
chezlaw
Limey Bastard
 
chezlaw's Avatar
 
Join Date: Jan 2004
Location: London
Posts: 39,618
Re: Coronavirus

Quote:
Originally Posted by ToothSayer View Post
No, the experts in the UK were the world's greatest morons who needlessly killed a lot of people (and would have been more if not for public pressure). They assumed that eradication or keeping it very low was impossible (they were wrong) and took the worst of both worlds as a result: initial high death and then extended extreme restrictions such that both people and the economy are fatigued coming into winter, without any of the US low-death summer burn to get the benefit of immunity.
ok. I thought you were warming up to the experts in your recent posts but ok we will keep disagreeing in that.

Maybe we still agree that the UK is in grave danger of being seriously clobbered this winter.
chezlaw is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 09-16-2020, 01:51 PM   #9347
BCI23
grinder
 
Join Date: Jun 2008
Location: MN
Posts: 562
Re: Coronavirus

Quote:
Originally Posted by Seedless00 View Post
I tend to view a lot of the "look, it was not that lethal and therefore there was nothing to worry about" crowd in a similar way that I view degenerate/bad poker players, they are outcome oriented minded. It's like the poker player that calls of his entire stack on the turn with only an 18% probability of actually winning on the river. When he/she hits one of those 9 outs on the river, they therefore think they made the correct play because they won the hand. Another thing though with these types of people is that their analysis was not even correct anyways, these same people were saying the virus is less lethal than the flu early on, or they would say it's just as lethal as the flu. The thing you will find with degenerates though is they will never admit they were wrong, and they tend to think emotionally versus analytically/strategically. These is why I could care less about what these people think, they think "we got this right" when in reality they're just chimps.
Totally understand and agree that anyone who was never scared of the virus is dumbass because we had nowhere near enough info to conclude anything.

The post you had before you edited was that you have high T and were scared in March/Feb but the point being made in the previous posts was that people who are still scared in September have low T so i was curious if you were still scared in September but sounds like you are not.
BCI23 is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 09-16-2020, 01:57 PM   #9348
ToothSayer
Carpal \'Tunnel
 
ToothSayer's Avatar
 
Join Date: Jul 2015
Location: BFI Thought Leader
Posts: 11,497
Re: Coronavirus

Quote:
Originally Posted by wheelflush View Post
my kids weren't going outside anyway, but these wildfires aren't helping any. their childhood memories are going to be confined to 4 walls and a screen, reruns on netflix. no mentors, no coaches, no field trips, no church, no scouting, no sports, no dating, no bands. adolescents need exposure to the world. this is the opposite of that.
Use the time to develop their internal life. It's far more important to life success anyway than all of the above. Get them reading books (a good helping of the classics are a must-read for an adolescent) and thinking about things. Turn off their Netflix, take away their phone and computer some hours a day and make them get bored. Take an extended trip to country if you work from home, rent a farmhouse or a cottage in a national park or something. Can go outside then. There's a lot you can do with corona time if you're willing to think outside the box. Not that most parents will of course and the whole thing is definitely bad if not creatively structured.
ToothSayer is online now   Reply With Quote
Old 09-16-2020, 09:23 PM   #9349
WorldBoFree
old hand
 
Join Date: Dec 2009
Posts: 1,534
Coronavirus

What are everyone’s thoughts about Trump taking control of CDC communications and guidelines to the states and seemingly going for herd immunity now?

He called it “herd mentality” though...
WorldBoFree is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 09-17-2020, 09:04 AM   #9350
ToothSayer
Carpal \'Tunnel
 
ToothSayer's Avatar
 
Join Date: Jul 2015
Location: BFI Thought Leader
Posts: 11,497
Re: Coronavirus

My thoughts? I think that you and Cuepee are both obsessed with Trump to the point of being mentally unwell. Any objective analysis show's he's not even a notable factor in the spread of corona in the US, yet all your posts are about him. And I am not the one driving this discussion; you guys have been mentioning him incessantly since I stopped responding to your Trump posts, proving that it's indeed you that is the problem in the thread. I'd said from the beginning, long before Trump blame started, that Trump (and most politicians) are pretty much irrelevant to the spread of corona; it's the expert bureaucrat response and population characteristics that has always been the driving factor for how this has and will play out.

Meanwhile, in Europe, which has now soared past the US and is on an ugly trajectory as the weather cools, a nice graphical representation for Cuepee about why current absolute numbers are largely irrelevant for how this plays out over time, and are FAR less important than R:



I did the math for you earlier which should have settled it, but above you can see it in graphical form. At this point the dumb theories are fully vanquished. Proven false:

- Trump is a meaningful cause of spread (nope)
- Europe was low over summer because of low-threshold herd immunity via T Cells (nope)
- Europe will/has handled this better than the US (nope, they were dealt a far better hand thanks to centralized systems and a cowed populace and no CDC testing screwup, and ended up in a worse spot)
ToothSayer is online now   Reply With Quote

Reply
      

Thread Tools
Display Modes

Posting Rules
You may not post new threads
You may not post replies
You may not post attachments
You may not edit your posts

BB code is On
Smilies are On
[IMG] code is On
HTML code is Off


Forum Jump


All times are GMT -4. The time now is 03:50 PM.


Powered by vBulletin®
Copyright ©2000 - 2020, Jelsoft Enterprises Ltd.
Copyright © 2008-2020, Two Plus Two Interactive
 
 
Poker Players - Streaming Live Online