I know, you troll b/c you can't address my points.

This says more about you than it does about me.

That's not really what I was saying. I was saying that this adversely effects the energy sector, which is a larger component than transports in the S&P. Compare major cuts to energy profit margins, cuts to employment and increased default risk vs marginally lower costs in transports, which won't even matter if there's a recession. Look at the S&P late 2014 - early 2016 when oil and other commodities were crashing.


It is not the only reason, but it's most of the reason tonight. Oil prices effects the US much more directly than the city of Milan does. I can't remember a single time oil jumped down $10+ in one day.

Or the war can deepen. Trade accordingly.

cliff notes. doctor watches too much US news. assumes raging problems such as masses of people buying enough supplies to fill a bomb shelters and stealing all the masks from hospitals, and showing up at the er with *gasp MINOR symptoms! he also worries quarantines will prevent people from attending weddings.

IF only the doctors in Italy could have such worries instead of deciding which person gets an intensive care bed and which one gets left to die rather than waste a bed on a slim chance of survival.

Now I'm tilted having read that. That idiot needs to lose his medical license. 1.1M shares. That post will be directly responsible for killing people.

i almost ripped into the post on facebook today when a friend shared it. good thing I didn't you cant say anything critical of healthcare workers no matter how far their head is up their ass.

Chill out on personal insults.

No one enjoys ego battles in current event threads. For some reason they always bring out the pent up flame wars.

'British volunteers to be infected with coronavirus amid scramble to develop vaccine'


https://uk.yahoo.com/news/volunteers...113818006.html

I'm willing to pay for Boris Johnson's 3500gpb to get him into the program.

Cross post from politics forum: exponential growth and epidemics.

Welp, this is comforting https://mobile.twitter.com/FYang_EP/...23843097649154

Elon Musk elaborates on "The Coronavirus panic is dumb" tweet.

https://twitter.com/elonmusk/status/1236557371310133248

Not particularly meaningful without an estimate of range for R0/CFR.



Life is so unfair.

Am I right or am I right? Look at the markets now!!!

He was actually relatively civil that last exchange. I'm good.

So USA should report 6000 cases in what, 14 days at most? And if they were under testing more like 10-12 days. So definitely 60,000+ cases by april 7th (that's hopelessly optimistic) . That's where I'm looking for the drastic tone shift from Trump and maybe the moves designed to mimic China.

I think any reports more optimistic than that are good opportunities to trade around.

Btw did inovio actually announce results or just some melt up?

I don't understand why estimates of future cases do not take into account that there will be a tremendous ramp up of high tech masks that actually work.

Source? Timeline?

Not clear if you mean some new hitherto uninvented mask technology, or increased supply of existing technology.

It will be very important for healthcare professionals which will help a lot if they are available but your average bod wont use them competently even if they have them (from what I've heard) - may even be worse than isolating themselves if it gives them false confidence.

But others may know better

Any reasonable estimate has the growth rate declining over time and is expressed as a wide range due to quarantines, social distancing, hygiene, and use of masks.

We also have no idea how much that will help. It currently looks like most transmission is probably not directly through the air... but that's poorly understood at this point.

Either alternative seems reasonable. It would be pretty simple if Leslie Groves was in charge.

China has done an incredible job tracing back all known cases to locate and test people they've been in contact with the stop the spread

there are documented cases of people's only contact having been using the same elevator at different times or having stood next toeach other briefly at a checkout line at a market

this disease is transmissive to unprecedented levels that simply wearing a mask won't resolve

and thus far nearly all data points to masks only prevent those with the virus from breathing it on others not so much prevents healthy people from breathing it in - the real danger is touching the virus and at some point transferring it to your mouth

right now in china, there are basically no new cases each day outside of wuhan because everyone is wearing masks and constantly washing hands/using purell and when they locate someoene with it they go to extreme lengths to trace back their travels

in fact, the majority of new cases in China are assymptomatic people flying in from other countries who are tested during their quarantine on arrival

that's what's scary, that the new cases in China are people who are not Chinese and have no idea they are sick and feel healthy enough to fly to China for business, really drives home how many people have the disease and have no idea

if you wear a mask but a sick person rings up your groceries your getting the disease, if you wear a mask but push the elevator button a sick person pushed and then forget and rub your eyes before washing then you're getting sick too

masks are great and all but everyone needs to be wearing them and even then there are still many other ways to get sick

the simplest thing anyone can do beyond washing hands and purelling is avoid large crowds and stop eating food you didn't prepare yourself and avoiding anything raw like salads

I don’t see this as a reasonable statement.

“I think that we will see the rapid development and mass production of a new high tech mask that hasn’t been invented yet but which will materially reduce the rate of transmission” is a reasonable statement. Key word being think.

“I don’t understand why we aren’t already treating this as a foregone conclusion and adjusting our estimates accordingly” is not. I think you are trying to be intellectually provocative here and are overstating your case.

Highly intelligent poker player holds forth on the virus, fails to understand how manufacturing ramps and supply chains and viral transmission works, so gets the analysis comically wrong. Score one for chezlaw. Not that the "experts" are doing any better though. This crisis wouldn't exist otherwise.

If I had one shot at a Manhattan project to address COVID-19, I would focus on vaccines or therapeutics, not masks.

Some existing masks (eg. N-95) are somewhat effective IF people use them correctly, but they are inconvenient, single-use, acutely under-supplied, and do not prevent all transmission vectors. If people do not use them correctly they are ineffective (and potentially counterproductive).

The idea of inventing a new mask is interesting, and technically trivial compared to the Manhattan Project. Not sure about supply though.

Perhaps you are alluding to qualitative differences between generations in regards to how they face up to existential threats? I do not think this virus will be the greatest difficulty we face in the next decade, and I am not inspired by the response from governments thus far.

If we’re going to do a Manhattan project, I think an antiviral that works broadly against coronavirus and flu will be amazing. In the alternative, the technology and infrastructure to deploy mass vaccines in a matter of weeks.

There's a bunch of stuff in here I'd love sources for. By all accounts this thing is less contagious than the flu. Are you sure of your transmission info? I'd like to see compelling data. Because based on your post Korea simply shouldn't be seeing the slow down they are. Too densely populated.

Koreans aren't going out in public dawg