from USA#9 to USA#4!

It can make great sense to pool certain therapeutics in early stages such that you can eliminate 2-3 things at once if you get no positive impact. It saves time over testing each thing individually.

And when you see a positive impact, you then need to look at what was pooled and not assume each and every component contributed to that positive impact, and instead control for each and every combination of each and ultimately identify what is working and what is not.

So I am not sure what you are saying? Are you saying distinguishing that is not important?


And BTW, the reason Trump and Co don't care about the impact of pushing these temporary uses even if they make it less likely that Science can ever control for what works or does not, is the same reason they pushed HC.

They know that whenever someone is given ANYTHING including placebo and they end up getting better, they will attribute their recovery to taking 'X'.

Trump wants the anecdotal testimony and with that he will proclaim success and why his over riding the scientists was the right thing to do. If the science is never proven and people keep dying, that is not the concern. It is the political spin that is.

....................

re Vegas and Covid - from the article:





Coronavirus cases in Nevada have surged since the state reopened casinos back in June, with infections rising from an average of around 100 to 200 per day to around 1,000 the following month.Clark County, which covers Las Vegas, has recorded 56,796 cases - making up 86 percent of all 66,010 cases across the state.A total of 1,028 people have been killed in the county, out of 1,200 statewide and its positivity rate of 11.7 percent towers over the other areas.Cases surged after casinos reopened on June 4, rising from 133 on reopening day to a peak of 787 on July 15.As of August 25, the county is now recording a seven-day rolling average of 436 new infections every day."






I would assume they're only testing residents, not tourists, so it's highly likely many more than these numbers that are being quoted have been infected in Clark County since the casinos re-opened





Cosmo gets bad press again:






"They [employees] claim the casino's public stance of a strict 50 percent capacity, testing and quarantining for any staff showing symptoms, and mask mandates for all staff and guests is nothing but a front for what is actually the most relaxed attitude of all the casinos on the strip, where staff who have tested positive for the killer virus have been welcomed back to work just three days later. This comes as cases of the deadly virus have surged in Sin City since its famous casinos began welcoming gamblers back through their doors in June - with at least 70 employees at the Cosmopolitan reportedly being infected in the last two months alone.


One woman who has worked as a pit boss at the Cosmopolitan for more than a decade told the The Daily Beast gamblers are seen walking around the casino without masks on a nightly basis.She said other gamblers smoke inside and handle cards - which the casino doesn't clean between uses - with their bare hands.'I'm scared sh**less,' she said. 'I've heard players saying that they like Cosmo better since we opened, because we have the fewest rules.'She said she is 'sick to my stomach' at the thought of spreading the virus to her family when she returns home from work.



'And it just kept getting worse, with the players not properly wearing masks, zero social distancing, and more players on the game than is allowed,' he told The Daily Beast.
He blasted the casino for being 'full of sh*t about protecting employees' as players have faced no reprimand for their risky behavior, but said he feels he has no choice but to keep turning up for work.



Several other employees also said the blame lies with upper management who they accused of turning a blind eye to the guidelines and not doing enough to protect their workforce.Staff said they had been expected to reuse disposable face masks for multiple shifts until they made numerous complaints to bosses.



https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/art...han-strip.html

Long Twitter thread but interesting re: expert biases, HIT.

https://twitter.com/AskeladdenTX/sta...78203564773378

This guy makes a lot of TSesque arguments- experts generally suck b/c of their biases and inability to evolve their thinking at all, or fast enough, in a fast moving situation. Those who were able to remain objective saw and continue to see something different.

We are going to find out very quickly in the communities where in-person school opens + have already had high spread if the low HIT seems real or not.

I did think this quote from a modeler he cites is worth calling out. This is related to a preprint rejection she received from a scientific journal, where she said her analysis showed HIT is around 20% in most locations:

This comes back to the theory that the common public and its leadership is dumb and incapable of doing the right thing without sorta kinda being forced to do it.

Most Chinese people WANT the experimental (they hear cutting edge when you say experimental) vaccines and it would actually be good for China if some of the military and medical personnel opt out. They'd end up with a natural experiment that would be useful and scapegoats for future infections.

It's a very different culture with regards to pharmaceutical safety. We can debate the ethics of (by western standards) inadequately informed consent but I wouldn't say this is a "freedom" issue.

I think this has already somewhat been established. Texas, Arizona and Florida have shown pretty conclusively how the virus acts, and that data has been bolstered by reports across Latin America, such as from Manaus, where in early May the headlines were all about mass graves, and now the headlines are that the virus has gone away on its own. No lockdowns. No special measures. It just stopped spreading.

I think the only question left is how badly this situation has been managed by the various governments of the world, and how they have failed to adjust their policies to reflect reality.

Clearly, this virus is dangerous, but it is also clear that the measures taken to stop it were both ineffective and exponentially worse than the problem itself.

The second wave isn't going to covid 19. It's going to be bankruptcies, undiagnosed cancer cases, massive deficits and other problems related to the lockdowns that will cause lasting damage to society.

I don't think this is true. Sweden took the laissez-faire approach; Norway and Denmark took the severe approach. There's some tiny chance that eventually Norway and Denmark's deaths per capita bleed up to Sweden's, but I really doubt it.

I also don't know how you explain the difference in deaths per capita between certain states (or even just between SoCal and NorCal) if the virus is this unstoppable force that only attenuates once herd immunity is reached.

Edit: And the take that the lock-down and requiring people to wear masks is exponentially worse that 200k+ is pretty debatable.

Wait, what?

Are you saying the '"virus has just gone away on its own" or saying there are erroneous reporting it has?


Also the measures taken (shut down, distancing, masks) were PROVEN effective and now are FACT. The first outbreaks and death tolls show that. By taking measures and flattening the curves and allowing time for therapeutics and other learnings to catch up and for hospitals to prepare and clear out backlogs, this second wave, despite mass numbers has been no where near as impactful, in terms of death.

YOu CANNOT say in the wake of all the efforts done that they were not needed because 'look at today's outcomes'. That would be like the cops stopping someone driving deadly speeds thru the city, and he continues on at the speed limit and gets home safely and cites that as proof as to why he could have kept tearing thru town at insane speeds.

Yeah, nothing is proven at all. It's a shocking logic fail from jsb to think it is.

Here's the thing that's proven:

1. In the height of summer (which so greatly reduces the spread rate of respiratory diseases that the flu disappears entirely) AND
2. With the old and vulnerable isolating and living abnormal lives AND
3. With partial expensive social distancing (people staying apart, things shut down like bars and sports and big events, social lives operating at partial capacity)

An immunity rate of >15% is sufficient to bring R below 1.

That's it. That's the only thing that's proven at this point. And this possibility (likelihood, even) was widely floated by many others including yours truly and Trump back in March. Things that aren't proven or even slightly indicated by the evidence:

- That herd immunity of 20% is sufficient to stop corona in normal life/cold weather
- That governments overreacted back in March
- That corona has a lower IFR than believed
- That there won't be a big lethal second wave in winter, requiring new lockdowns.

By the way:

- New York has an R of 1 (cases flat for two months) with lots of distancing still in place and a 20+% infection rate (0.17%). That's completely incompatible with a 20% herd immunity rate.



- In the hardest hit European country (Belgium with a >0.1% death including uncounted), cases are soaring lately despite distancing still in place and contact tracing which greatly reduces R:



This is completely incompatible with a 20% herd immunity rate. In fact the surge was so rapid (R > 2 in this ~10% infected country) that they introduced Europe's toughest restrictions in late July.

Meanwhile Texas, which has seen cases spike and drop, had this happen:

But jsb ignores all this for his dopey pet theory of "20%" herd immunity, based on zero logic or looking at contrary evidence. It's so dumb and unscientific.

So the coronavirus has a death rate of around half that of measles.

Which one of you a**holes will admit that this has been the biggest overreaction in human history?

Coronavirus has a death rate about 5x that of measles, and about 25x when hospitals overwhelm and care is no longer available. Unlike measles,for which there has been broad vaccination, it also spreads rapidly through the population. So the death rate is about 1000x higher than measles in Western countries. In the US, which hasn't had a measles death in 5 years, corona is 180,000/0 times more dangerous

Try getting your facts straight, first?

captain, this would be a good point for you to step in and apologize to me or at least be ashamed enough to stop posting

rickroll, don't you live in China? The police literally track all foreigners living there, with each foreigner having a case officer monitoring their behavior, and give you a hard time (including arbitrary arrests and searching your house) if you say anything critical.

Therefore anything rickroll says on China is worthless. He should be completely ignored.

tooth i'm downright impressed, didn't know you had levels

Joke? or trolling?

This line of thought is like a country martialing its army to ward off an invader. Doing so with success but some serious losses. And the citizens looking at the resultant loss and saying 'see, this hysteria, this troop martialing was not necessary. The losses were hardly significant.'

This is the worst type of results based thinking.

He wasn't joking,he's just an idiot.

LOL It was ME from the very start of this thread that said this virus has a death rate of close to 1%. Every other fool such as yourself was panicking presenting an end of world scenario. Others were saying 'ohh, but you don't understand how exponential growth works', when in fact it is they who doesn't understand, plus it does not last.

The hospitals in the West are not overwhelmed at all. Latest from the WHO is that the coronavirus has a death rate of 0.6%. What are you going to say now? The WHO is all corrupt and on the pay roll of China? Grow up you clown. What about the Harvard study which came to a conclusion of a death rate of 0.5%? More corruption I guess??

The BEST estimates right now is that flu has a death rate of 0.1%, Polio 0.38%, Coronavirus 0.6%, Measels (with huge variation) 1.45%.

Yet here you are claiming experts don't know what is going on while you do.....and these so called experts have reached the conclusion as to the death rate I said ages ago. The ONLY thing you got correct was that this is lasting longer than what I thought it would, along with the fact that you brought this to my attention and many others early on, so well done on that.

Also, you are the guy who claimed to be some big shot trader. Mr nobody who is a broke loser and lives at home with his Mommy! Didn't you have a bet with someone on here and lost (obv) then did not pay? That led to this gem of a post after ages of you posting mindless rubbish (your speciality).



LOL!!! What a complete loser.

TS obviously didn't take Jordan Peterson's advice to heart.

does anyone?

Do you think that 'death rate' does not include all the measures taken, to relieve pressures on the hospitals, to buy time for therapeutics (such as steroids, proper use of ventilators, etc) to be understood and implemented?


Do you play poker and do you have any comprehension why results based thinking is dumb?

You are looking at the result NOW (death rate WITH measures) and assuming it would be the same if nothing was done. That makes NO sense. None.

Because we locked down, after seeing what happened in Italy (overwhelmed, triaged, people choking to death by the thousands without medical care). Are you claiming the rest of the West wouldn't have been just like Italy? On what grounds? R was greater than 3 and the hospitals were near full and doubling to tripling every 10 days.

No, it's far simpler. This number includes countries like Nigeria (average age 19) and some of poorer Asian and Latin America countries which have few older people, hence much lower death rates. The death rate always referred to western/industrialized countries. That was explicitly stated. The trouble with you is that you're brain dead so you miss these nuances and waste everyone's time.

Again, you're confusing the West (0.2% from measles without almost zero cases thanks to vaccination) and the third world (up to 10% with malnourishment). Your comparison with measles was clownish, but you miss such nuances when you're brain dead.

What?
I got everything correct. There were large uncertainties over what would happen in summer, and it looks like summer has greatly slowed spread. I flagged those uncertainties.

That was a joke, designed to trap exactly the kind of un-nuanced idiot you are. Only a few angry losers were dumb enough fall for it. Brian had already been paid in full before I made the post - he posted a picture of the cash in the same thread - we thought it would be a funny joke, and it's still paying off two years later. You can always count on idiots to give you a laugh.

Go home son, you're out of your depth.

it's kind of funny how iirc the joke was pretty much spelled out as such just a few posts later that he'd go to that length to background check you but then not read for 30 more seconds

A joke? LOOOL! The people who believe that are as deluded as Tooth. You are a broke loser who posted pages and pages of rubbish, then it was agreed to look as a joke because of the clown this Tooth looks like. If it were a joke, you should be perma banned for literally spamming the forum with pages and pages of filth. What is the point talking to some broke loser who spends his whole life on a forum because he has no life and can't get laid. He knows it too. One day he will admit it again....although with his bizarre personality, he will probably wake up the next day and say he was joking. You're in a state of madness, and that is where I will leave you.

Do you think the death rate of measles is influenced by measures taken or not? What about TB?

Fact is MANY people caught the coronavirus who were not diagnosed and many did not even have any symptoms. The Chief Medical Officer here in the UK was saying that the death rate was under 1% or at 1% ages ago. So this is from something like 6 months ago....and working with the best mathematical modellers in the world. Still, you could ignore this and believe in broke Toothsayer instead. LOL!

https://www.dailymotion.com/video/x7si1mx

Grind,
I'd already paid Brian when I made the joke.

You seem like you're having a bad day son. Don't make ridiculous/false statements like "corona is half as lethal as measles" or "this has been the biggest overreaction in human history". This statements aren't true and you seem to be getting a little triggered (to say the least) when someone points out why they aren't with solid reasoning and facts. Think a little before you speak. Appreciate nuance. You won't get into these silly situations then. You're welcome.