Quote:
Originally Posted by Seedless00
My intuition just tells me this is obvious nonsense. (27/55497) ~ 0.048. A case fatality rate of 0.048% is half as lethal as Influenza, by the way, this is the case fatality rate and not the actual fatality rate. I can simply just observe what occurred within Wuhan/Italy and know this makes zero intuitive sense. I am just going to assume that their test are ****, or they simply are under-reporting deaths. If anyone else has a more likely theory, I would love to hear it. I see no reason to believe that this virus is at MAX, half as lethal as Seasonal Influenza.
EDIT: Could also just be the age of the infected.
Strangely we keep going back to this question of bewilderment of 'potential' factors while ignoring what seems to be the most effective factor and what Singapore excelled at in the early days of this pandemic.
Again going back to my aforementioned point, which should be obvious, but no one was discussing or considering in the discussions at the time, the 2 main determinants of death with Covid, seemed to correlate directly to:
- the ability of the Healthcare system to subsume the incoming patient load
- the ability of the country to break the chains of transmission (isolation of infected and treatment of sick)
The equation is not a difficult one.
Flatten the curve - If hospitals get overrun and overwhelmed due to the inbound rate of newly sick swamping the discharge rate and the hospitals ability to free up beds, then the death rate will rise exponentially.
Isolate the Infected - Singapore had a National Plan from the beginning and demonstrated the importance of being able to elaborate a National Plan and getting citizens to comply. Infected were KEPT in the hospitals and extensive contact tracing was done to break the ongoing chain.
THAT far more than faulty tests, or incomplete data speaks to what we saw in Singapore and why Texas and Florida have not seen the death rates NYS did, YET, as their healthcare system still has the capacity to treat the sick, with our improved knowledge of what to do and what not to do.
However you will see both Florida and Texas and other locals death rates spike massively if they cannot break (or much better slow) the chains of transmission as the systems cannot keep handling the inflow of patients at this level and worsening as we head into Fall.
And I have a strange feeling we will still have questions in this thread asking 'what happened? Why is Florida and Texas, etc early death rate so different than this new death rate? Is it data?', while ignoring those other two clear, and leading, factors.