Right but hasn't it been proven that warm weather doesn't really lower transmission? (Texas, Florida, etc.). I guess the real question is what percentage of people are actually immune to Covid, in areas that already went through a spike in cases. Percentage with antibodies (say ~20% in NYC) + those with T+cell immunity, could bring population closer to herd immunity? I'm no expert but that was the line they were using.

Does anyone have an estimation for how much economical damage we did in the U.S. back in Feb/March because of the shutdown? Obviously, the shutdown was only a consequence because of our terrible response, but does anyone know how much additional damage this did? A bit off topic but just curious.

Just take the 9.5% gdp drop for the quarter. That's a few trillion right there if you add in end of March gdp drop as well

Yup.

It's essentially nothing outside of the winter months. The graph on the link below shows positive tests on a weekly basis.

https://www.cdc.gov/flu/weekly/index.htm

And then take a look at Singapore.
48,000 cases clear, 27 dead.
Literally just the flu.

That reminds me. I remember there was a theory that countries that still used the BCG vaccine, especially the Japanese version, had much lower morbidity and mortality from the virus.

I wonder if that theory is still a thing or not? Haven't heard anything on it in a while.

Below is a figure from an Epidemiological study looking at Europe. The results speak for themselves I think. The only question is whether this is just associative, or causal.

https://www.pnas.org/content/117/30/17720

My intuition just tells me this is obvious nonsense. (27/55497) ~ 0.048. A case fatality rate of 0.048% is half as lethal as Influenza, by the way, this is the case fatality rate and not the actual fatality rate. I can simply just observe what occurred within Wuhan/Italy and know this makes zero intuitive sense. I am just going to assume that their test are ****, or they simply are under-reporting deaths. If anyone else has a more likely theory, I would love to hear it. I see no reason to believe that this virus is at MAX, half as lethal as Seasonal Influenza.

EDIT: Could also just be the age of the infected.

Corona basically spread through Singapore's migrant worker camps, over 90% of cases happened there. These are vast tightly packed sprawls of fit young men in their late teens and early 20s who don't mix much with the native population. I used to go to little India to watch the fistfights, there were just zero old people (or women). Corona deaths in this population are near non-existent. No doubt there's under counting as well in this group.

Literally just the flu.
Literally just the flu.
Literally just the flu.
Literally just the flu.
Literally just the flu.

Amazing how death rates are infinitesimal in authoritarian states and higher elsewhere!

https://www.theguardian.com/world/20...study-suggests

Imperial site https://www.imperial.ac.uk/medicine/...sion-findings/

Article is a month old ... why isn't this bigger news?

if congress doesnt pass another round of stimulus soon I may change my tune but for now im still following the flow of money ie long stocks

how do you assess the flow of money?

.................

more insanity - American style


a Florida sheriff has ordered his deputies not to wear masks
and he has also barred visitors to his offices from wearing them






https://www.nytimes.com/2020/08/12/u...gtype=Homepage

Strangely we keep going back to this question of bewilderment of 'potential' factors while ignoring what seems to be the most effective factor and what Singapore excelled at in the early days of this pandemic.

Again going back to my aforementioned point, which should be obvious, but no one was discussing or considering in the discussions at the time, the 2 main determinants of death with Covid, seemed to correlate directly to:

- the ability of the Healthcare system to subsume the incoming patient load
- the ability of the country to break the chains of transmission (isolation of infected and treatment of sick)

The equation is not a difficult one.

Flatten the curve - If hospitals get overrun and overwhelmed due to the inbound rate of newly sick swamping the discharge rate and the hospitals ability to free up beds, then the death rate will rise exponentially.

Isolate the Infected - Singapore had a National Plan from the beginning and demonstrated the importance of being able to elaborate a National Plan and getting citizens to comply. Infected were KEPT in the hospitals and extensive contact tracing was done to break the ongoing chain.


THAT far more than faulty tests, or incomplete data speaks to what we saw in Singapore and why Texas and Florida have not seen the death rates NYS did, YET, as their healthcare system still has the capacity to treat the sick, with our improved knowledge of what to do and what not to do.


However you will see both Florida and Texas and other locals death rates spike massively if they cannot break (or much better slow) the chains of transmission as the systems cannot keep handling the inflow of patients at this level and worsening as we head into Fall.

And I have a strange feeling we will still have questions in this thread asking 'what happened? Why is Florida and Texas, etc early death rate so different than this new death rate? Is it data?', while ignoring those other two clear, and leading, factors.

I wasn't quoting that for a market play (it's irrelevant and the US economy is strong especially after today's jobs data), just as a causative factor in why Texas etc slowed down on spread. The thesis was being put that nothing had changed and we went to herd immunity, this shows that things have indeed changed enough to put R down below 1 (it wasn't far above as it was) without invoking some silly immunity thesis.

Anecdotally I really don't like this explanation about NYC. When I visited there a few weeks ago people were far more cautious then they were where I live in northern VA (which I think is much more cautious than Florida/Texas). >90% mask usage outside, no indoor restaurants, heavy restrictions on outdoor restaurants/bars. I think I saw subway usage is still 80% below normal. Many of my friends there still sound scared shitless to go anywhere. I don't think NYC is anywhere near reopened.

Yeah all the herd immunity stuff is the dumbest thing to come out of corona discussion maybe ever. Pure wishful thinking.

So you think with an R of 1.2, 15% of a sub population having it has no meaningful effect on R by itself?

I can't understand why this wouldn't have some effect. To what extent I have no idea.

But yes when an area starts getting blasted people are going to overall adjust their behavior.

As far as I can tell when looking around, no clinical studies have actually been done yet. From the linked article:

'This study highlights the need for mechanistic studies behind the effect of BCG vaccination on COVID-19, and for clinical evaluation of the effectiveness of BCG vaccination to protect from severe COVID-19.'

Perhaps some are going to happen but I can't find any that have/have results available, so it goes into the bucket of literally hundreds of other potentially helpful existing remedies that we just don't know enough about yet.

How did you get 7 - 10% ? I got roughly 13.1% of all American's infected with an 8x. Currently infected is about 5.4 million. 5.4 million x 8 is roughly equal to around 43.2 million infected. (43,200,000/328,000,000) ~ 13.1%. Also, why are you assuming an 8x? Is it just because you are assuming the IFR of this thing is around 1% ?

covid19-projections.com estimates 13.3% total infected in the US. Estimate of 220k dead by November 1st (19.3% infected at that time). Obviously those are estimates, but jeeeeeesus christ the people saying (actually not just saying but actively living their lives accordingly) just let it go on thru everyone for herd immunity, what a heartless, idiotic f0cktard you are if you think this.