I'm calling it bullshit (and have for a long time). CYDY is a fraudy biotech which does these constant press releases with misleading data. PairTheBoard was sucked in and promoting it endlessly on here to big losses for lots of people (sad to see a math guy go full blown ****** on a bio scam, i even called him out earlier ITT).

The key to the bullshit is here:

90% vs 71% is a terrible number for "mild to moderate". No one will bother using it. Especially since endpoints seem cherry picked/data snooped:
I love the weasel language here:
How much is this "beneficial improvement"? A 1 point clinical symptom score improvement would satisfy this and also make it useless for real world use (especially since these are "mild to moderate" and not severe.

And what does a "greater treatment effect" mean? There's no quantification of magnitude or even what the score was.

There's nothing to see except data snooping and dishonest press releases imo.

UK data was apparently not available (not 0).

This is a pretty good article about monoclonal antibodies as a potential treatment for covid 19. It does a pretty good job of explaining the science behind drugs like leronlimab and their limitatitions. FWIW, some prominent scientists I follow on twitter are really optimistic about mAb drugs.

https://www.statnews.com/2020/08/11/...l-they-matter/

There was some report about a week ago that US has had ~200K year over year presumably due to Covid. So assuming a 1% death rate (which is a fairly reasonable estimate based on many different data sources) and you have 20M infected, accounting for time adjustment. There are ~5M confirmed cases, so looks like closer to a 4X undercount.

If you tackle the problem from this perspective even 10X undercount seems pretty unlikely. It would mean 50M people in US have been infected, and neither antibody studies or estimated IFRs support this at all.

The date is confused a little bit by the fact that it's sweeping mostly through the young/low death rate on this wave (the old seem to be isolating), so it's easy enough to get to 30 million on that. But yeah the higher numbers are absurd

We have ~2x more new cases per day in the second wave, but have ~2x less deaths in the second wave, for example.



I know it's a different virus, so this data may not be applicable, but does anyone know what the fatality rate of Seasonal Influenza is in the Summer vs Winter? I am assuming 0.1% is just overall, but it would be interesting to see what the difference is in Winter vs Summer.

Vitamin D may be having a very large causative impact on the IFR of this thing (I brought this up in March so it would not surprise me one bit if it was). By the way, I still agree that the median-age of the impacted is probably also responsible/causative for the discrepancy.

Case counts before were far higher before (relative to tested), there was little testing available early due to the CDC scientists.

There isn't any data because flu doesn't really exist in the the summer.

If anyone tries to compare it to the flu and ignores this, they are being disingenuous.


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The thing many people seem to not understand is that the main killer of covid is the overwhelming of the health care facilities such that people cannot get care.

Without adequate care the death rate spikes up massively.

So unlike seasonal influenza which is left unchecked to run its course, COvid needs many interventions such as distancing and mask wearing, and strategic shut downs to allow for some alleviation of the stress on the systems and them to catch up and get ahead of the patient load.

You just can't sustain a system where multiples more people walk in the hospital doors each day then they can discharge.

That is why it is, in no way comparable to seasonal flu.

The only conclusion I can come to is this.

A) A combination of Vitamin D + Treatments has lowered the fatality rate.

B) A combination of Vitamin D + Treatments + Median-age infected has lowered the fatality rate.

C) Testing has improved drastically, and because of this we are in-return over-estimating the amount of Americans that have actually been infected with this thing, for example, 10%/ 15%/ 20%. Maybe the actual infected # is much lower then we suspect.

Obviously SARS-CoV-2 is much more lethal/dangerous then Seasonal Influenza, this is not the point I was trying to make though.

California, Texas and Florida have more confirmed cases than NY, despite the fact all three states combined have less deaths.

That should give some indication how useless it is comparing case rates in states that got hit in April versus ones that got hit in July.

Darker skinned people have lower Vitamin D levels (especially in Winter/Spring) for hopefully obvious reasons.

They also tend to have higher amounts of several known comorbidies (obesity, diabetes, high blood pressure, low socioeconomic status, etc). I dont think anyone has done adequate statistical analysis to tease out association vs causality for Vitamin D vs morbidity/mortality.

But yeah, it is pretty harmless (and potentially +EV) to buy some Vitamin D supplements or walk around in the sun for a few minutes/day,; so why not?

Forget Vitamin D. Average age is all you need to explain the data. It's far lower now (10-15 years) and there's a 50x differential in death rates between the worst and best cohorts. And yes there is far more testing now.

Yes, but there was a study that showed roughly 21% of New Yorker's had antibodies. New York's population (8.4 million). 21% of 8.4 million is = 1,764,00 infected in NY (32k/1,764,00) = 1.8% IFR in NY. We simply are not seeing anywhere near a 1.8% IFR within the south at the moment based upon this 10% - 20% infected #'s. This is my point, how do we explain this? That is why I brought up the three different options of A, B, and C to try and explain this discrepancy.

NY state has a population of ~20 million and ~32k deaths. I think you are mixing up the city and state.

So we don't actually know what % of people within NY actually caught it, we instead just know 21% within NYC caught it? Well that is unfortunate.

Is it possible for us to estimate what % of those 32k deaths are people from NYC? Essentially, what % of those 32k deaths are NYC residents? We know 21% of people within NYC have antibodies, there is no reason for why we shouldn't be able to get a close to accurate figure for the IFR% in NYC.

No, I meant I think you are using population for the city, but using the total deaths for the state. I don't actually know whether the 21% antibody stat you are using is for the city or state.

NY State has 32K deaths (according to Worldometer), not NY City.

Read my last post, 21% had antibodies in NYC.

Well, they break the stats down by region in Worldometer. So if you knew NY geography well and were motivated, you could add up the deaths from the different regions that corresponded to NY City.

Or you could try Google searching and see if you can find any recent estimation for total deaths in NYC.

With that said, 21% antibodies was just at the time of that study, they did not have 32k deaths yet at the time of the study, just to clarify. I would need to spend more time on this, but the accurate IFR%, or at least close to the accurate figure, should be findable. Epidemiologist should have already done this type of research. Have they done this research? Are there any papers on the estimated IFR within NYC?

Heard the argument on a podcast that this virus basically burns through a population, and then that population is essentially done with Covid. Some combination of herd immunity via antibodies from exposure to the virus, and/or T-cell immunity via other coronaviruses. That was the explanation given for why NYC (and some foreign countries) have not spiked back up even while reopening - they essentially had their wave, it was terrible, and they are done.

A quick scan adding in my head gives ~25k. It's only 5 counties so if you want more accurate it shouldn't be hard.

If a good chunk of people within NY/NYC caught this thing back in Feb-April, and we also account for the fact that Summer is also inherently going to lower the r naught of this thing. There is no reason for us to expect a # of high cases in NY/NYC in the summer, not only does a specific % of the population have antibodies (lowers the R naught), we are also in Summer, therefor this combination drastically lowers the R naught of this thing in NY/NYC.