A very optimistic short article in a newspaper here. I am not sure. Given all the drama over the last year, I do feel like deaths should have been more. We have opened up a bit and people are out a lot. I am surprised more haven't been infected or died. I still am not going indoors with other people. I am at the cafe everyday but always sitting outside. I guess we shall see in the months ahead. Interestingly, I have asked maybe 30 people if they would take the vaccine when it comes out, maybe 80% said no.

https://metro.co.uk/2020/08/10/coron...emic-13108836/

For the Americans in this thread. I know this is a bit off-topic, but what is up with all this #savethechildren stuff? I keep seeing all over my Facebook people making claims such as "800k children go missing a year in this country! Where is the outcry over that!" Missing does not mean abducted correct? People are using this as a backlash against SARS-CoV-2, anyone else notice this phenomena? By the way, child trafficking is obviously an issue, but it seems very deceptive to use reported missing children statistics.

just the newest "here's another big number that we often ignore in life so we can ignore covid too lest we be hypocrites" type argument that's super common in USA#99

all is a moot poot, missing children don't infect those whom they come across and make them go missing too - all these comparisions are silly since it's not expential/transmissable in nature

Yea, but my point is that the statistic they are using is highly misleading. If you think child trafficking/kidnapping is a big issue, that is fine, but these people literally don't even give a **** about finding the accurate number. Very bizarre. They are just using total missing children reported as their statistic, without actually understanding what that entails.

They don't care what the actual number is. It's being pushed by the same Q crazies.

they genuinely don't care, they found something that conveys the point they want to get across, 90% of their audience will blindly agree and those that don't won't bother to fact check and if they did would lose the argument for being a know it all nerd or something

we're a super segregated society, it's super uncommon for divergent political/religious viewpoints to cross each other in day to day life - only chance at it is the workplace and that's why we consider it taboo to talk about anything political/religious at the office so people are quite accustomed to preaching to a friendly crowd that won't ask too many questions and it's so common right now in media that's it's almost become an accepted version of discussion - many times i've seen it said we're living in a post-truth and post-fact world where opinions and believes and how effectively you communicate them are all that matter

just look at quora, a website who's mission statement was that it was created to be a depository of unbiased knowledge written by experts but in the last few years it's been taken over by sensationalized story telling aided by inaccurate pictures - basically 90% of the "history" answers there have blatantly false information in them because it's some dumbass who thinks they know what medieval farm life would have been like because he watched game of thrones and then people read that, see to cool factoids clearly written out with the neat images and upvote it while the archaelogist who wrote an actually truthful answer gets one one-thousandth of the views because he lacks style and flair in storytelling - website is total garbage now as a result because it's quite clear nobody gaf whether or not it's true

/endrant

Gotta love seeing someone realize how dumb Americans are in real time.

Nima answers questions on quora.

https://www.washingtonpost.com/healt...navirus-covid/
https://nymag.com/intelligencer/2020...-immunity.html
https://www.nature.com/articles/s41586-020-2550-z

Doing some research to catch up, what does everyone think of this? I stopped following this virus for awhile

Haha
Must be drinking again

quora genuinely pisses me off, they clearly gave up the mission statement and just now pose as pseudo intellectual porn written by uneducated people with free time and dreams of becoming influencers

they literally have porn channels on there now where people submit nudes, place has become tumblr

On the slowdown in Texas, etc, there's data indicating major behavioral changes. From Baird yesterday:

https://www.nbc12.com/2020/07/01/ban...sk-study-says/

I have raised this many times as Covid being the gift that keeps on giving.

It looks like, for many, who dealt with Covid well the first time due to having no pre-existing conditions, they are gifted a set of 'now existing conditions'

As Covid then rolls thru the next time, those prior healthy people, may in fact now be the most likely to die from it due to their new pre-existing conditions.

'Get you now' or 'get you later' which is why therapeutics and/or vaccine may be more key than ever.

I don't buy much of this "special damage" stuff. Viruses do weird things, including brain damage. Always have. Apart from the lung damage, which is very real, a lot of the rest seems overblown/rare

So Russia supposedly has a working vaccine against Coronavirus are we going to see any nations gamble on its safety/efficiency or it's just gonna remain mysterious in Russia?

I can see some poor nations possibly gambling on it like Pakistan which maybe is worth it to gain an edge and a quicker economic recovery.

I mean, it sounds like Russia basically took something similar to Moderna's phase 1 results, said "good enough", and decided that was that.

Basically, in soviet Russia, vaccine safety tests you. Hard to see weak willed Westerners doing this. They couldn't even recommend masks when needed because there wasn't enough evidence.

"Of the 3,748 team members who were tested onsite, the company said that 481, or 13%, tested positive, and of those, 455 or nearly 95%, were asymptomatic."

I am assuming that they did not do a follow-up, just like the Diamond Princess correct?

https://katv.com/news/local/nearly-9...c-company-says

Contamination/bad tests I'd guess.

it's sad to watch you make some prescient predictions early RE: covid, then watching your overconfidence ramp up to level 10 blinding you from political biases and confirmation bias seeping in.

where are you getting the term "special damage stuff"? people are talking about real damage to the heart and central nervous system.

"viruses do weird things"? that's your satisfactory hand wave to this virus possibly (not definitely, but arguably >10% likelihood) leading to serious chronic conditions for a not insignificant part of the global population?

no one knows **** about this virus, it took them months to figure out what it's doing on a basic level, stands to reason it'll take years to understand longterm ramifications.

you could be right that this turns out to be nothingburger, but there's enough initial evidence out there that you cannot dismiss this as a potential risk and move on.

EDIT: lmao

Except I haven't been wrong from start to finish. You're just running into your own ignorance.

Yes, the same "real damage to the heart and central nervous system" that happens with regular flu, swine flu, etc. Have a read of this, for example: https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC3530294/ or this:

Subclinical Brain Injury Caused by H5N1 Influenza Virus Infection


Young fit people actually drop dead from heart inflammation caused by the regular flu.
There's always bullshit scare stuff about every disease. The papers I've read show quite rare incidence of these things in corona. Yeah it will be higher here (due to more frequent severity), but there isn't 10% of the population with major ongoing non-lung complications. That's pure bullshit.

Sure you can.

I ramble so was probably unclear: I thought you were right early on and i respected a lot of your posts. You've always been pompous/callous which is part of the schtick I guess, but your more recent posts have been cringeworthy in a different way.


Agreed. I'm concerned the prevalence and magnitude of covid19 damage will be worse.

That's encouraging. Can you link to the papers showing rare incidence in covid19?


We just have different definitions of certainty. I hope you're right. If you're wrong, please abandon the BFI Thought Leader moniker.

Separate question which i think relates more directly to BFI discussion:

If investigative journalism reveals the virus originated in a Wuhan lab as a novel chimera virus (as opposed to naturally crossing over from bat to human) what would be the ramifications? Chinese tariffs? What would be the impact on related biotech sectors?

America's population (317 million). "The number of COVID-19 infections nationwide is 6 to 24 times higher than the 3.9 million confirmed cases." (Largest Seroprevalence Study in US Shows Vast COVID-19 Undercount).

3.9 million x 6 = 23.4 million, 3.9 million x 24 = 93.6 million. America had 3.9 million cases on July 19, and on July 19 America had 143,760 deaths. (143760/93,600,000) = a fatality rate of 0.15%, and (143760/23,400,00) = a fatality rate of 0.61%. I know this does not account for the potential lag time in deaths, but it is a close estimate. Is this virus really only this lethal? Did we get this wrong guys?

Heidt, Amanda. “Largest Seroprevalence Study in US Shows Vast COVID-19 Undercount.” The Scientist Magazine®, 2020, http://www.the-scientist.com/news-op...dercount-67762.

EDIT: Let me look at deaths two weeks further. Can get a better estimation.

15 days later, America had 158,925k deaths on the date of Aug 3, therefor I will account for the lag, and do the same as previous. It just changes it from 0.16 - 0.67. Still very low.

Let's do this another way since YOU are the one making the claim

You claim this:
1. From where do you get the claim that it's "arguably >10% likelihood" that corona will lead to "serious chronic conditions" for a "non insignificant" part of the global population?

2. What are these "serious chronic conditions" - apart from the lungs, obviously - and what is your best estimate of their prevalence in mild patients and in severe patients?

3. Do you find the few studies that have touched on this, satisfactory to establish your concerns above?

In the absence of compelling evidence, I do indeed get to dismiss this as a baseless scare.

To me the post I'm replying to seems silly and unfounded:
You clearly disagree since you took me to task and not the poster of the above. But on what basis?