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Old 07-30-2020, 05:54 PM   #8601
Cuepee
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Re: Coronavirus

Quote:
Originally Posted by Seedless00 View Post
Does anyone actually thinking delaying the election would benefit Trump? IMO, it actually would hurt him, and here is why I think so.

Delaying actually hurts him. If he was intelligent he would actually want the election to occur ASAP. Less than 2% of all Americans have came-down with this virus, this is in-part why so many Americans still think the virus is a hoax, they simply have not seen any of their family members affected, and they therefor think the virus is being exaggerated. As more time passes, and as we go into winter, the virus is going to exponentially grow within our population. IMO, More Americans affected with Covid = lower probability of Trump winning. We also have to take account the economical damage that may occur in the winter months in the U.S. I see no mechanism for how delaying actually helps him.
You are part right and part wrong imo.

Trump does believe that the relatively small percent of people directly effected is something he can use to make others think it is all a hoax and thus don't worry.

The problem is people are scared based on what they are seeing in the science and data despite the many attempts by Trump and his acolytes attempts to distort and misrepresent it. The blame keeps coming back to him.

But what Trump truly fears is bad economics heading into the election. He knows things cannot be great before the election but he is desperate to see things going the right way so he can say 'do you really want to risk these gains you now see coming by switching?' You saw that in how quick they were to trumpet job improvements after the re-opening. The 'we are back' (or on our way) message is one Trump wants for the election.

Currently Trump and his admin, I think have given up on trying to stop covid spread. Basically surrendered. And instead they are setting their sites on gaining control of the data and its dissemination thru HHS and the CDC.

If they can succeed and get the CDC with its credibility with the populace to start posting what looks like rosy data even if in reality the US is being hammered and going from 2% to 3% and 4% and beyond, his hope is those who are not effected and just see the data along with some improving economic conditions might be enough to push him through. And that is why he wants a later election date. The more momentum he thinks he has behind the markets, the better for him.

it is a big gamble based on deception and lies, but I think Trump sees no other credible path after digging the US into this hole it is currently in.
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Old 07-30-2020, 07:20 PM   #8602
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Re: Coronavirus

Just straight up endless conspiracy theory madlibs from you, Cuepee. Not even a passing attachment to reality. It's quite amazing.
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Old 07-31-2020, 11:49 PM   #8603
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Re: Coronavirus

here's an attachment:
OK... maybe it's not malicious.... just incompetence?
https://www.npr.org/sections/health-...s-inaccuracies
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Old 08-01-2020, 07:15 AM   #8604
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Re: Coronavirus

From ‘brain fog’ to heart damage, COVID-19’s lingering problems alarm scientists
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Old 08-01-2020, 10:59 AM   #8605
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Re: Coronavirus

Since there has been an ongoing discussion about Covid stats, where is Johns Hopkins acquiring data for their dashboards? Footnotes suggest directly from states, is that correct?

Thanks in advance. Regards.
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Old 08-01-2020, 11:03 AM   #8606
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Re: Coronavirus

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Originally Posted by Lunkwill View Post
here's an attachment:
OK... maybe it's not malicious.... just incompetence?
https://www.npr.org/sections/health-...s-inaccuracies
Why are these things being looked into? It is just more conspiracy nonsense. Nothing to see or even consider here, let alone watch.

if you don't test, covid will go away. If you don't look at data, covid will not exist.

The very act of questioning govt motivations is something no citizen should ever do. In govt we trust.,
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Old 08-01-2020, 11:08 AM   #8607
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Re: Coronavirus

This is one of the biggest concerns about Covid IMO, in that we know that people with pre-existing conditions are most susceptible to death via and many citizens seem to shrug it off with an 'ehh, so what, they were not healthy anyway', and it seems that even the healthy who survive Covid may be left with a gift set of existing conditions that become their very own pre-existing conditions when Covid rolls thru the next time.

Thus survive the first time due to be healthy, ...don't worry, we'll get you next time.

That coupled with the Trump admins continued push to end protections for pre-existing conditions could see everyone who gets covid, bumped out of their insurance pool now they have their new covid existing conditions.
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Old 08-01-2020, 02:18 PM   #8608
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Re: Coronavirus

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Originally Posted by Cuepee View Post
This is one of the biggest concerns about Covid IMO, in that we know that people with pre-existing conditions are most susceptible to death via and many citizens seem to shrug it off with an 'ehh, so what, they were not healthy anyway', and it seems that even the healthy who survive Covid may be left with a gift set of existing conditions that become their very own pre-existing conditions when Covid rolls thru the next time.

Thus survive the first time due to be healthy, ...don't worry, we'll get you next time.

That coupled with the Trump admins continued push to end protections for pre-existing conditions could see everyone who gets covid, bumped out of their insurance pool now they have their new covid existing conditions.
“Obamacare is a joke! Deductible is far too high and the overall cost is ridiculous. My Administration has gone out of its way to manage OC much better than previous, but it is still no good. I will ALWAYS PROTECT PEOPLE WITH PRE-EXISTING CONDITIONS, ALWAYS, ALWAYS,ALWAYS!!!” he added.
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Old 08-01-2020, 03:34 PM   #8609
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Re: Coronavirus

Cuepee:

GTFO.
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Old 08-01-2020, 03:59 PM   #8610
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Re: Coronavirus

Howard Treesong:

GFYS
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Old 08-01-2020, 06:57 PM   #8611
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Re: Coronavirus

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Florida, Texas and Arizona should present a pretty good data set on how this virus behaves. All three states started showing a rapid increase in cases in early June, and all three states aren't currently locked down, so based on antibody tests, all three should see a rapid explosion in cases/deaths over the next two to three weeks.

However, if the T cell believers are right, the opposite should be true. Cases should fall over the next two to three weeks and these states should look like Western Europe by late August.

The conditions are really good to test these competing theories. We know lockdowns don't have an immediate effect, as cases continued to rise even after measures were put in place in Italy, Spain, the UK and NY. And we also know that summer weather hasn't been a factor.

It seems like "wait two weeks" has been a constant refrain with this virus, but now I really think that we will have a lot of answers within that timeframe.
Two weeks after I wrote this, and we have seen a pretty clear decline in cases in those three states, and a decline in hospitalizations as well.

Nate Silver backs this up in this thread.

https://twitter.com/NateSilver538/st...88417408778241

I am sure some people will try to use other reasons to justify the decline, but I think it is pretty clear that this virus slows down pretty quickly once a certain percentage of the population is infected.

Obviously it causes a lot of deaths, and there may be long-term health implications for survivors, but at this point continuing lockdowns seems scientifically unjustifiable.
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Old 08-01-2020, 07:19 PM   #8612
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Re: Coronavirus

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Originally Posted by jsb235 View Post
Two weeks after I wrote this, and we have seen a pretty clear decline in cases in those three states, and a decline in hospitalizations as well.

Nate Silver backs this up in this thread.

https://twitter.com/NateSilver538/st...88417408778241

I am sure some people will try to use other reasons to justify the decline, but I think it is pretty clear that this virus slows down pretty quickly once a certain percentage of the population is infected.

Obviously it causes a lot of deaths, and there may be long-term health implications for survivors, but at this point continuing lockdowns seems scientifically unjustifiable.
That's correlation not causation.
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Old 08-01-2020, 07:41 PM   #8613
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Re: Coronavirus

Your theory is incredibly dumb and contradicted by all data. Let's lay it out for you:

Death percent and current R

NY: 0.18%, ~1
NJ: 0.17%, ~1

Texas: 0.02%, <1

You theory posits that the Texas decline is due to herd immunity, but in NY and NJ (and plenty of other places) 8x more people died (about 20% got infected) and they still have an R of 1 in summer with substantial distancing/shutdowns/masks still in place.

Your theory is strongly contradicted by the available data. Let's take another example: Spain.



Spanish cases are soaring as lockdown is fully lifted after getting numbers very low. Spain has a death rate of 0.06%, 2.5x more than Texas. Why are cases in Spain soaring (this looks like a R of about 2) if your herd immunity theory is correct? Spain was one of the worst hit places in Europe.

In fact, historical rates of cases seems to have little bearing on how corona is doing now. Croatia had a tiny rate of infection (1/50th of NY, a mere 40 per million), are broadly opened, and have a R at or less than 1. Explain how that's possible given there's no herd immunity there, since you seem to think that any place that's flat is evidence for your silly T Cell theory?

In reality, combinations of some distancing, big events being shut down, contract tracing and isolation, and summer, have gotten R close to or below 1. For the flu, summer alone (with zero distancing) completely eradicates the flu with zero distancing, until it starts up again around November. So you can see how summer + a some distancing + contact tracing/isolation can do the same for a more virulent strain.

It's no coincidence that the young are spreading it now. Promiscuous sex, partying, hooking up are the best ways to spread it in summer, because the other routes of infection, such as non-close-contact droplets, are far less effective in summer and likely below 1 by themselves. Thus the cases have shifted hugely to the young who do nearly all the close contact.

When the winter comes again the rates of transmission will go up. This was in fact always what was modeled (because it's how the flu and colds work) - if you look at the UK projections for example, they expect a first wave, then flat/no growth during summer, then a big second wave arriving as the weather cools and behavior changes and transmission moves to indoor droplets (like it does for the flu).
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Old 08-01-2020, 07:55 PM   #8614
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Re: Coronavirus

Here's what the flu looks like for example:



That's pure seasonal behavioral changes (outdoors socially vs indoors socially) and big changes in how droplets spread (0 transmission at 1 meter in warm/humid vs 70% transmission at 1 meter in cold/dry) and how long viruses survive on surfaces (1 day warm vs 14 day cold). This is business-as-normal with zero distancing or flu-specific behavioral changes.

Best guess is that R is around 3 in winter on average, summer reduces that by about 1, distancing reduces it by 0.5-1.5 depending on how severe it is, contact tracing reduces it by 0.5-2 depending on compliance and competence. You don't need T Cells to explain what you see. You have an uncontained summer R of about 2 + a bunch of behavioral changes + a bunch of interventions of varying effectiveness by state and region that get it somewhere between 0.7 and 1.5. In fact your T Cell theory doesn't fit the data at all; it's probably the worst data fit of any theory out there in that the data strongly contradicts it.

I agree with you that lockdown is not worth it at the moment, but not because of your T Cell thesis. Building up some immunity for active nodes (mostly young people) during the summer freebie period is a good idea and will make the winter far less bad. If the most active 5% or so of the population forms 10% of social contacts, then you're getting an R reduction of >0.3 for a n R of 3. This leads to a very different virus spread pattern when combined with contact tracing and other measures when winter comes again. T Cell immunity isn't required at all for that outcome.

Last edited by ToothSayer; 08-01-2020 at 08:05 PM.
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Old 08-01-2020, 08:34 PM   #8615
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Re: Coronavirus

Quote:
Originally Posted by ToothSayer View Post
Your theory is incredibly dumb and contradicted by all data. Let's lay it out for you:

Death percent and current R

NY: 0.18%, ~1
NJ: 0.17%, ~1

Texas: 0.02%, <1

You theory posits that the Texas decline is due to herd immunity, but in NY and NJ (and plenty of other places) 8x more people died (about 20% got infected) and they still have an R of 1 in summer with substantial distancing/shutdowns/masks still in place.

Your theory is strongly contradicted by the available data. Let's take another example: Spain.



Spanish cases are soaring as lockdown is fully lifted after getting numbers very low. Spain has a death rate of 0.06%, 2.5x more than Texas. Why are cases in Spain soaring (this looks like a R of about 2) if your herd immunity theory is correct? Spain was one of the worst hit places in Europe.
The new Spanish cases reported in your graph include people who tested positive for antibodies, not new infections.

https://www.reuters.com/article/us-h...-idUSKCN24P1ZT


As far as the death rate in NY/NJ, do you think it may have been impacted by the decision to stuff infected people into nursing homes?

I could be wrong as to the reason cases have been declining in the three states I have been following, but your arguments as to why that may be are not very convincing.
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Old 08-01-2020, 09:09 PM   #8616
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Re: Coronavirus

I'm hesitant to extrapolate flu transmission patterns to SARS-CoV-2. And I should know the answer to this, but I don't: If flu transmission is so weather dependent, why do we see flu seasons in San Diego, Houston, Florida, etc.? (I assume they have a pronounced flu season in these places.) The explanation of people spending less time indoors during summer doesn't hold water—the summer is when it's brutally hot in a place like Houston or Tampa, and everyone spends more time indoors with the A/C cranked up. With respect to social time spent indoors versus out, summer and winter are flipped in these places compared to temperate cities like New York or Pittsburgh.

I also wouldn't assume that the surface-transmission characteristics of the flu apply to SARS-CoV-2. I think that's a huge driver of the flu, but I haven't seen evidence that it's a significant driver for SARS-CoV-2.

I think that kids going back to school will cause the R0 to rise significantly, but that comes a bit before temperate cities start packing people back inside due to weather. And I think in the places that have had the worst outbreaks, enough people have been infected to bring the R0 below 1 come winter. So my prediction is that both cases and deaths will trend slowly downward from here, and by Dec. 31st, worldometers will show deaths around 233k. And we won't have administered 1,000,000 vaccines in the US by the end of the year. And Biden will win the election.
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Old 08-01-2020, 10:23 PM   #8617
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Re: Coronavirus

Quote:
Originally Posted by Cuepee View Post
This is one of the biggest concerns about Covid IMO, in that we know that people with pre-existing conditions are most susceptible to death via and many citizens seem to shrug it off with an 'ehh, so what, they were not healthy anyway', and it seems that even the healthy who survive Covid may be left with a gift set of existing conditions that become their very own pre-existing conditions when Covid rolls thru the next time.

Thus survive the first time due to be healthy, ...don't worry, we'll get you next time.

That coupled with the Trump admins continued push to end protections for pre-existing conditions could see everyone who gets covid, bumped out of their insurance pool now they have their new covid existing conditions.
It don't hurt you no more than a weekend of binge drinking, or 5 minutes on a cell phone
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Old 08-02-2020, 03:58 AM   #8618
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Re: Coronavirus

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Originally Posted by mrbaseball View Post
The corona situation gets better by the day, the vaccine gets closer by the day, the treatments get better by the day. It is still likely a factor with certain segments of the market (casino, travel, or any large gathering types of situations). And beware for those to pop hard once this is behind us. But I firmly believe the worst of corona is behind us and should have little impact on the markets from this point on.

How do you arrive at this conclusion? Why won’t waves two+ be as bad or worse until we either have a vaccine or herd immunity?
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Old 08-02-2020, 10:56 AM   #8619
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Re: Coronavirus

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Originally Posted by despacito View Post
How do you arrive at this conclusion? Why won’t waves two+ be as bad or worse until we either have a vaccine or herd immunity?
You are taking my quote a bit out of context. First off it wasn't even in this thread, it was in the trading thread. And it was made in the context of trading. The market is beyond covid and doesn't really have much of an effect on the market which is the point I was trying to make.

Personally I am of two minds on covid. I think it is way overblown and being manipulated for political reasons. I think a lot of things can be responsibly opened up a bit more. On the other hand I take very seriously from a personal standpoint because I don't wanna get it. So I am very pro mask, social distancing and sheltering in place.

But the treatments are getting better and the vaccine is getting closer and the people who are at true risk are acting more responsibly.
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Old 08-02-2020, 10:56 AM   #8620
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Re: Coronavirus

I think Covid-19 will just be accepted as part of life and we will just find ways to cope with it.

https://www.cnn.com/2020/08/02/healt...ess/index.html

CNN now on train with T-cell resistance.

Approximately half of blood that couldn’t possibly have had exposure to covid-19 reacted strongly to Sars-Cov-2. Still need more testing and information but if this pans out it would explain why cases start to level off with about low levels of positive antibodies. In the scientist’s sample of old blood, half basically had resistance/immunity without any prior exposure.

The article mentions this could be due to exposure to other forms of coronavirus. That could contribute to differences in both infection and fatality rates in different cities.

Note exposure to older strands of the flu is often cited as a reason older people did relatively well with the Spanish Flu. This idea of exposure to older/related strand of a virus conferring resistance has been observed and proven with other viral diseases as well.

I am not as confident as mrbaseball but I do agree we’re rapidly approaching the peak of Covid-19 in terms of economic impact. Through a combination of lower health impact, an altered expectation of “normal” in social interactions, and just acceptance of the risks, society will soon move on.
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Old 08-02-2020, 11:37 AM   #8621
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Re: Coronavirus

Quote:
Originally Posted by mrbaseball View Post
You are taking my quote a bit out of context. First off it wasn't even in this thread, it was in the trading thread. And it was made in the context of trading.

True. I was genuinely interested in your take on Covid, not just the impact on markets, so it seemed appropriate for this thread. Not throwing shade.
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Old 08-02-2020, 12:47 PM   #8622
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Re: Coronavirus

Gold per ounce in 12 months will be higher than Bitcoin!!!

Gold will be at over $10,000 an ounce while Bitcoin will be over $9,000 per coin!!!
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Old 08-02-2020, 02:45 PM   #8623
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Re: Coronavirus

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Originally Posted by Jion_Wansu View Post
Gold per ounce in 12 months will be higher than Bitcoin!!!

Gold will be at over $10,000 an ounce while Bitcoin will be over $9,000 per coin!!!
This is the new gold bug fantasy, that's the figure all the usual bugs are now touting. I dunno...
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Old 08-02-2020, 04:07 PM   #8624
Borish Johnson
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Re: Coronavirus

I highly recommend a podcast called This Week in Virology- specifically, an episode from 07/16 called 'Test often, fast turnaround, with Michael Mina'. Really insightful look at how cheap, rapid, not even all that accurate testing is the most effective key to controlling Covid. Spoiler alert, it doesn't seem the US is interested.
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Old 08-02-2020, 04:49 PM   #8625
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Re: Coronavirus

My father just contacted me about some new conspiracy theory (that he believes in). I honestly have not done any research on it yet. I am going to do some research on it, but can anyone give me the run-down as it stands?

https://www.snopes.com/fact-check/moderna-conspiracy/
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