Interesting thread about the trend of covid cases in Arizona, Texas and Florida.

https://twitter.com/trvrb/status/1291860659118804992

Bill Gates USA Tests are Completely Garbage

Interesting read

Your willingness to accept mediocrity is what makes your own lives mediocre. I refuse to do that and will not give anyone a pass on this. People - at least the good ones - will rise to the level of expectation. I choose to set that high. Do your job.

Since his job, in part, is to respond to post reports but not to read every post, it would seem to me that your job is to report posts you find objectionable. Do your job. Unless you are mediocre. Then just carry on.

Sir, this is an Arby's.

I went to the car park (parking lot) 2 mins walk from where I live. I did not have an appointment, although people book them. I was just walking down the street and popped in. Soldiers were in there carrying out tests. I inserted a swab to the back of my throat and then also quite far up my nose. Sealed the swab in a special envelope they provided (I think I inserted the swab in a solution prior to putting it in the envelope, can't quite remember. They took it and emailed and text me the results 1 or 2 days later.

20% infected my ass. I live in the south. Nobody in my family has caught this thing yet. If 1/5 was accurate, I would expect on average to have seen at least a couple of infections within my relative family. Of course this could just be variance, but I don't think it is. I also have other reasons for why I think that number is trash. There is likely a much more simpler answer for the decreases.

idk why the testing itself is never questioned

testing kits must be the most profitable thing out now with so much demand and a 50% success rate

Where was this? Is it standard there for test subjects to administer their own tests? Seems suboptimal.

omg, I loled

just wondering what current consensus is when we can get back to generally normal living?

Personally I assume well have a couple vaccines before the end of the year but it will take 12 month to roll out to most developed countries. Was with some friends last night debating when to reschedule our boys trip to Scotland, group consensus was may would be too aggressive, but fall 2021 is more realistic.

If thats right theres another **** year of results ahead for theater, hotel, casino, airline stocks and im not sure if small mom and pops can survive it. curious how the government responds with stimulous to that scenario.

If a vaccine is out this year and Americans can travel with a proof of vaccine, then spring is possible. Otherwise itll be a while.

I'm curious what happens when a vaccine is ready but with not enough doses to get around. Who gets priority after the high risk groups?

I think a lot depends on what happens in Europe this fall. If there's no second wave, then things should get back to normal by January or so. If there is a massive second wave, then who knows.

As far as a vaccine, I don't have much confidence that the early versions are going to be that effective. So if there is a second wave coming, the vaccines that are in development right now aren't going to make much of a difference.

But if there is no second wave, and a vaccine is approved, then I think that will boost the economic recovery even more, since it will give people peace of mind even if it doesn't work particularly well.

As far as a Scotland trip, I don't see a scenario where fall 2021 is any better than May of 2021. If the virus is still a problem in May, I would imagine it will remain a problem in the fall. The only way it wouldn't be is if scientists nailed the vaccine right out of the gate, which seems unlikely to me.

Posters location is London.

Fyp.

It seems likely that the vaccines aren't going to be extremely effective, and it seems likely immunity won't last very long . In America especially, there's going to be a pretty low adoption rate on top of that. In other words, normal isn't coming any time soon in USA#1.

When I was tested, there's no way I could have self administered. They shoved that thing to my brain and painfully swabbed around for ~10 seconds and then repeated for the other nostril.

stop quoting him guys and put on ignore

he's one of the nut worst posters here who just hops from thread to thread complaining

Just to elaborate further on how silly this 20% infected nonsense is. New York has a population of 8.4 million, and has a total of 32k deaths. Texas has close to 4x the population of New York, and has 4x less deaths than New York, yet he is assuming these states are experiencing a decrease in new cases because of herd immunity, what a ****ing moron. We would have to assume, for this to even be remotely true/possible, that New York over-counted roughly around 24k deaths, instead of New York having 32k deaths by Covid, they instead actually only had around 8k deaths by Covid. The only other potential argument that could explain this discrepancy, would be median-age infected of NY compared to Texas. Also, based upon my personal observations, my intuition also tells me 20% infected is just nonsense.

I'm all for calling certain people morons but that guy ain't one.
Also, I can't imagine that's the only possible difference re: death rate.

What % of NY vs TX was nursing home? Just how significant is the age difference (and esp # of 80+)
Has the standard of care for hospitalized COVID patients improved since ~Mar/April?
Does Vit D play a role? Do NY'ers have lower Vit D in Mar/April than TX'ans in June/July?
Is there any difference in the strain or possible reasons of lower avg severity?

LOL. Yeah, that guy's a moron. You should do some research.

Would you then take the projections of the most accurate modeler to date (not this guy)? He also shows 20% NY, 20% FLA, 18% TX.

https://covid19-projections.com/

Given that 25-40% of people exhibit absolutely zero symptoms, and some % only very mild (cough, runny nose- nothing that stands out as more than a cold) that's pretty large chunk of people who would be generally unaware they have had this. So I fail to see in any way how 6 months in something in the neighborhood of 20% of a hard hit state is nonsense.

That guy never said 20% has been infected. He said if infected rate is x% and if R (effective infection rate) is y, then we would be looking at some kind of containment.

He was explaining, using a range of numbers to show when we may/may not have defacto herd immunity/resistance.

He's not really making claims with respect to the % already infected.

I don't give a **** who he is. If you are going to make the claim that Texas has achieved herd immunity, and that is why cases are declining, you better explain NY's data. If you have no theory to explain NY's data, I could care less what you have to say. I live in TX, even with 25% - 40% asymptomatic, it still does not add up. Shuffle is likely correct that there is something more insidious occurring. It could also just simply be that the R dropped at a similar rate within these 3 states at a similar time (seems unlikely). 20% infected is nonsense and I stand by my claim.

How do you explain the data from Sweden then?

The 7 day average new death per day is 1, new cases per day 198

It never locked down and they dont wear masks. basically had no mitigation in place except banning gathering over 50 people. they also kept schools for kids under 16 open the whole time

They went into summer. Spring/Summer lowers the R naught. + America has roughly 32x the population of Sweden, + Americans are really dumb.

Haha you don't even understand what the guy (Trevor Bedford) is saying. Why are you so hostile? That guy has been crushing data on Covid since the beginning.



OK, if Texas, with pop of 29mm, 500k cases, less than half the tests/person as NY, as you stated 25-40% asymp, then what do you think the real number is?



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NYC cases by age

https://www1.nyc.gov/site/doh/covid/covid-19-data.page









Texas cases by age

https://txdshs.maps.arcgis.com/apps/...01e8b9cafc8b83