This is clearly not true. The democrat hypothesis he developed all by himself, oblivious to the difference between direct and indirect effects in statistics.

Maybe I wasn't paying attention but I don't remember that hypothesis coming out until someone came in saying "this is all Trump's fault, blah, blah, blah"

Even if your assertion is true (it’s not), TS is still bringing the politarding upon himself.

It’s impossible to discuss probabilities of Covid-19 responses without analyzing Trump’s competence or lack thereof. That discussion inevitably has some political component.

But TS is incapable of discussing politics like an adult. That’s on him.

Sure, but "all Trumps fault" and "democrat spreader" hypotheses are independent of each other (as well as being both false).

"It's Trumps fault" is a hypothesis.

The FACT that Democrats are the large bulk of the spreaders is a strong counterpoint to that hypothesis.

The fact that the large bulk of the deaths happened under Democrat governors and mayors (who oppose and don't listen to Trump - they actively told people to "go out and live their lives normally" as late as March) is another counterpoint to that hypothesis.

The fact that only 35% of people in the hardest hit Democrat cities like NY give data to contact tracers is another counterpoint to the "but for Trump" hypothesis

It all comes down to:

But For Trump the US would look mostly the same (we can show that by looking at places run by Democrats who have their own sophisticated state health and pandemic systems and don't listen to Trump).

But For China's lies and concealment, the WHO, CDC incompetence in botching tests and Obama's pandemic procedures blocking private companies, US population recalcitrance, state and local bureaucratic incompetence in implementing test and trace, the US would look like the better European states now (regardless of Trump).

Given this, why blame Trump? It doesn't make any sense at all. The blame isn't coming from a rational place or from looking at the data - in fact it's strongly contradicted by the data.

It's super cute you think the Democrat spreader fact is either a hypothesis (it's a fact) or is "false" when the data looks like this:



And on top of the county affiliation, we know that the young and minorities are overwhelmingly anti Trump and overwhelmingly the spreaders now.

The stats are even far worse than that because the young don't get sick enough to need a test anywhere near as often as older people and don't get tested.

Young minorities who are strongly anti Trump are the spreaders now. They're going out and socializing, hooking up (near 100% spread rate), partying, spending time in groups spittling on each other. I'm sure they'd all wear masks if the president they hate had worn one! That would have really made a difference I bet.

That's NOT to say that Democrat voting preference is linked to getting or spreading the virus. As I said, blame belongs in two places: China and experts, and nowhere else. What it does is disprove ridiculous notions that Trump wearing or not wearing a mask (for example) would have a meaningful impact. These populations don't care what he does. They don't cooperate with authorities and contact tracers. They simply don't care and want to live their lives.

Correlation =/= causation.

I'm not sure what the point of this comment is other than proving that you're an idiot/terrible poster? Nothing in my post relies on correlation showing causation.

It's weird to see you flail around against the FACT that Democrats are the large bulk of spreaders. You've fought against this fact so hard. Why are you so allergic to facts? Maybe you should be more data driven than ideology driven.

.

How have they departed from the expert advice recently?

Pubs opened on Jul 4, and cases have been stagnant 20 days later. That's a great sign that the testing and contact tracing at the moment can handle it. We also have a lot of time until winter to ramp up testing and contact tracing. I doubt winter will be nasty, since the government's line has been that they will reintroduce stricter measures if R0 gets above 1. I'm optimistic.

Here are some examples that I posted a while ago in another thread. They're a bit dated but everything I've heard since has been along the same lines.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-52857820

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/health-52849691

https://www.theguardian.com/world/20...-boris-johnson

Let's not quote random scientists, because I'm sure I can google and serve up a few that say easing the lockdown was right. Look at the numbers instead. It has been 20 days since the easing and cases have not gone up. The scientists you quoted were thus wrong anyway. Now, if cases do start rising again, they can either do a local lockdown or reinstate some of the tougher lockdown measures (pubs shut, or whatever else). And all this while, they can ramp up contact tracing while treatment gets better.

I think we're at the stage where it would require a major **** up to have a second wave even close to the first.

They're not random. they were the ones advising the government so it justifies the claim that the government is diverging from their advice.

I also think they're right but I very much hope that they are wrong. Even more I hope the vaccine arrives double quick and we never find out who was right.

They have already been proven wrong, since cases are stable and testing has increased. The UK coronavirus subreddit has daily numbers with the percentage tested positive. That percentage has been decreasing (cases same and number of tests up). You will see the effect of pubs reopening in 2 weeks, and it has been 20 days. Opening was the right decision.

Why are you quoting SAGE? The government should slow torture them then hang them from the Tower of London for how many people they needlessly brutalized and killed with their idiotic advice/strategies.

I was far more spot on what this epidemic looked like and how to handle it than the peak UK bipartisan scientific expert body. So why quote them when they've been wrong about everything? If only the government had diverged from this idiotic, murderous, incompetent expert advice sooner.

Here in USA#9, I've seen no news at all as to how we would go about contact tracing even if we wanted to.

So some people ITT may remember TS heaping tons of praise on the antibody testing done in Spain as being proof that he was right about IFR.

Well, a new paper is claiming that the test only detected N-antibodies, which have a short half-life, and therefore the results may have underestimated the prevalence of the virus.

Here's the paper.

https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1...2.article-info

And the relevant paragraph.

A large seroprevalence survey undertaken in Spain, recently reported a SARS-CoV-2 seroprevalence of 5.0%(18). This study used a chemiluminescent assay to detect nucleoprotein antibody together with a point of care lateral flow device. In contrast, Public Health England undertook a SARS-CoV-2 spike antibody seroprevalence survey of 1000 samples from blood donors in London estimating a seroprevalence of 17.5% in the first week of April(19). Whilst many socio-demographic factors could account for the different estimates of seroprevalence between these studies, one explanation may be the relative decay of the spike and the nucleoprotein antibodies.

Ok. So France, Spain, Germany, Italy, NY, Belgium, Sweden, which all show numbers exactly in line with their death rates and a 1% IFR, all had the wrong tests too?
No, every single data point in the Western world proves I'm right about IFR. It's settled, finished and done.

Trump and the CDC are pushing very hard for it and providing tens of billions in funding. It's the local health areas that are breaking down at implementation.

There actually is good testing and tracing in some areas in the US, terrible in others. Part of it is a function of official/bureacratic incompetence and part of it is population lack of cooperation. NYC is now doing a fairly good job, but the populace refuses to cooperate.

Getting the broad US to do what you want is like herding cats. In Europe it's like herding sheep - most countries have a common culture that goes back dozens of generations, and a common identity which is taught and celebrated. The US lacks that. It's just the nature of the country and its vast range of cultures, bureaucracies and decentralization., Fractured left wing identity and grievance politics becoming the major indoctrination among the young has also made the situation way worse (people would rather pointlessly riot on the street for example than control a pandemic). I predicted this result back in early March from what I've seen of the US populace in the short time I've spent there (~ a year around the country).

In Australia corona has basically been eradicated by highly competent test and trace, except for one state (Victoria) where it's soaring like crazy thanks to huge numbers of immigrants who don't care about/believe/cooperate with local officials. 35% don't speak English at home. Add in a highly decentralized health system (like the US has) and generally selfish/rebellious/distrusting of authority/low impulse control/partying young people (like the US has) and you have an unwieldy disaster. Part of it too was the left wing premier allowing protests - everyone was locked down with a fine for leaving their house, while idiots could march through city streets and spread corona because they had the right politics. A lot of people stopped taking it seriously at that point.

I can easily find IFR estimates by actual scientists for all those places that contradict you, but at this point it is simply running up the score. The truth is, no one really knows what the IFR is. You claim to you know, but I don't see how anyone can trust your judgement on an extremely complex scientific issue considering your ridiculous takes on other aspects of the virus.

The Thesis below as pushed by ToothSayer and reverse engineered with select distorted data, all through this thread, is clear. For those seeking confirmation bias like de captain it is similarly clear why they quietly applaud when such blatantly partisan and factually wrong political stuff is posted in support of Trump and cry foul when it is refuted with clear facts that force them to confront their bubble.

Addressing the Thesis : Blame everyone but Trump. Trump has not been at fault in any of these areas, as laid out by ToothSayer below will be done in the subsequent posts.

This is reposted in whole so people can clearly see the thesis for themselves.

Re Thesis : 'Blame everyone but Trump. Trump has not been at fault in any of these areas...'

Point: ToothSayer Summary:

'if not for Dem leadership and Dem voters, things would have been rosy. Replace those early hit hard States with Republican Leadership and and voters and the US looks more like Europe now'


FALSE:

The initial spread of Covid had nothing to do with political affiliation either by leadership or citizen. All the areas hit hard in the first wave share key traits such as the lack of knowledge and facts not yet known about the virus coupled with early exposure (usually due to tourism and travel), often coupled with being more dense cities with heavy utilization of public transit (buses, subways, etc).

The data i shows clearly in this post that regardless of political stripe and who is in charge, if you were in that first wave with those traits you were going to get slammed as Canada, Germany, Italy and NYC did.

That is NOT the issue as there was an element of inevitability to that.

But if you look at those same graphs you also see that as data came out and the path to controlling the spread was clear ALL of them were able to beat down their curves and take back control with measures they took in March/April, which showed results starting in early May.

Correspondingly in the charts just below that you can see another strong subsection of places like Texas, Florida, Arizona. Brazil, Russia that are now hard hit in the second surge of the first wave.

The commonality there is clearly leadership at the top either in denial or not taking the steps not clearly outlines by the Data that is abundant and clear.

Calls of 'SLOW THE TESTING DOWN', which is call for those in power to undermine the scientists and data and also a clear appeal to citizens to not believe in it and also calls "LIBERATE, Virginia and Michigan, etc" which is a direct appeal to citizens to defy the data and scientists and take individual action in defiance of the CDC guidelines for re-opening could not be clearer.



Conclusion : There is no way to absolve Trump on this second spike of spread in these States. His call for defiance, modeled by those who believe him and his undermining of the science and data was clear and it worked to the detriment of the USA that is now suffering needlessly.

Also trying to broad brush it was "Dem's fault, and if not for Dem's we would not be here, now has been proven false above. No stripe of gov't was getting a pass at that point.

Re Thesis : 'If NOT for anyone BUT Trump...the US would be in great shape'

China, the WHO and Trump.

-----

It is not reasonable by any stretch, except for deliberate partisan pandering, to rationalize pointing a finger of blame at the W.H.O re China, information and mistakes made, while absolving Trump.

Great, the WHO is guilty of trusting China too much and then dispelling some misinformation as a result. However the WHO fixed that error around March 7.

Trump not only WAS NOT reliant on the WHO for his intel on China, he also had one of the most direct lines into China. And long after the WHO and the rest of the world stopped believing China, Trump kept believing and kept pushing out into the world that China should be trusted.

Ergo if you blame the WHO for making a mistake, you cannot absolve for doing the same and for much longer.




IF China and the WHO is responsible for obscuring data and not realizing the mistakes and misrepresentations how does not Trump get the same onus put on him to cut thru to the truth.


Conclusion : The US buying into China misinformation was not a problem due to 'anyone but Trump', and in FACT with everyone BUT Trump, including the WHO changing their view and belief in China in early Feb, leaving Trump as the sole China cheerleader, it is clear the US would have done much better with anyone BUT Trump in charge.

This aspect is CLEARLY on Trump as my prior post clearly highlights.

Okay so you and no doubt others think the divergence from the advice is correct.

I don't see it like you do at all. The opening up is in it's early stages and so far the contact tracing has been able to cope. That doesn't imply that as the opening up continues, the furlough scheme winds down and the schools go back that the contact tracing wont get overwhelmed. If if it does get overwhelmed then cases will start to rise dramatically and winter will be round the corner.

Re Thesis : 'Blame everyone but Trump. Trump has not been at fault in any of these areas...'

Point ToothSayer:

.. Obama's pandemic procedures blocking private companies, US population recalcitrance, state and local bureaucratic incompetence in implementing test and trace, the US would look like the better European states now (regardless of Trump).

Summary
- Blame Obama
- Blame botched Prep
- US would look rosey if not for the above
- Don't blame Trump


Did Obama leave Trump in an impossible position that there is no reasonable way Trump should be held responsible for?

Would the US have been prepared had the POTUS (Trump) did his job?

Conclusions:
It is not possible or reasonable to point a finger of blame at Obama and/or government inaction post Obama, and then excusing Trump. My prior post quoted below goes thru the ample warning the POTUS had to draw upon when making his choices. Choices he must own.

It's like reading the trump thread in politardia. Fun times. You're a good BFI poster cuepee