I'm not defending the Trump administration, I'm debunking your dickhead thesis on no evidence that Trump is deliberately hiding data. The article clearly says:

1. Non Trump officials/health experts interviewed by the reporter say that the CDC can't handle it, so the overhaul is necessary and has been long planned

2. The CDC has been directed to make the data available again

It's clearly a typical bureaucratic oversight. If the data doesn't become available again then you might have something. Right now you've got pure nonsense. And it's not like the key states don't individually publicly report this stuff anyway (I see it reported daily on my stock feeds for multiple key states), so what the hell are they supposed to be "hiding"?

Your thesis is so dumb. Get a grip man, Trump Derangement Syndrome is turning you into a terrible thinker and poster.

Only a blind Trumptard would try to represent this as a good thing.

FLOL at "more POWERFUl insights". At least changing the wording Trump told you to go out and say before defending Trump and trying to pretend to be objective. D'uh.

Yes the CDC will be directed to put back their dashboard as Trump and Co know the CDC is trusted but all that Data will now be provided by HHS.


HHS receives the Data and is under the thumb of Pence and the Trump task force. They will sift and sort the data and forward to the CDC what they want them to know and demand they continue to make dashboards based on the data they receive.

"Big Beautiful Dashboards" filled with "Very Powerful Data". FLOL


Only an idiot trusts the Trump admin as the keeper of all data and think anything representing a fulsome disclosure will happen. Fine if HHS is to get all the data but unless we hear the CDC is 'copied' on all the unabridged data, there is zero reason to just trust Trump and his HHS.

Your posts stand on their own and your point is made and clear.

I was not posting to 'assist' you. I was posting as this is a chat forum and not SMS one to one dialogue and I was responding to bad faith posting by another poster.

Fair enough on reducing the more political stuff but I did reply to the same fallacious point you did by that poster and his claims of your TDS, which you strangely do not cite as 'political'.

Anyway, regardless, point taken.

No real market reaction to CA and TX closing down.

It's basically the Fed that's priced in right now. If the dow gets below 25 we're stimulizing back up.

Good economic data this morning matters more than partial reopening rollbacks in two states imo. And of course the fed in the back of it all. Only reason the market is red is Europe tech ruling (pulling down the big tech names) and weak China retail sales. Other sectors are strong.

Post-dated data from better times, imo.

CA, TX, FL, GA, (OH, NJ) many top GDP states are in trouble.

The wildcard is that the $600 per week unemployment benefit ends on the 25th. 11% of the US! Defaults are coming in hot.

Trump has supported more stimulus so I think Congress throws another $1200 at some point.

Overall the economy is a mess and the real GDP adjustments are not being factored in. Those GDP numbers will be a massive decline. The market is artificially being held up because ..'election' but will fall soon after.

The parallels were how artificially the stock market and bond markets were being propped up and inflated until the major big banks could offload on to the taxpayers most of their bad mortgage paper.

Damn.

Actually truth. His credibility gone once he started stanning for Trump on every post.

There is a huge difference between the top 500 companies which are in the stock market in the US, compared to the small local businesses that are really struggling. Getting to the other side of this is a lot easier the bigger you are, the more scale you have, the easier access to credit you have, etc etc. Most of them are operating around the world on a global scale and the picture is looking a lot better in other parts of the world.

The stock market is forward thinking, you're just thinking on how the situation is today. That is not how the market thinks..Market is looking ahead into the future and likes the data from the rest of the world on how the recovery is going. The players are thinking of what to do with their capital compared to the other assets available to them. The 10 year is at negative real rates obviously is going to direct money in stocks even if they are only yielding 3-5% is a better alternative.

Market momentum is generally a mirror to earnings report and momentum you speak of the biggest corporations only.

However the baseline Market number that underpins that, and is THEN impacted by earnings reports eventually adjusts to real GDP and the underlying wealth of the nation.

So even though many large corporations were NOT impacted by the mortgage crash, a significant portion of the nations underlying wealth was wiped out. Thus the stock market eventually shifted way down in a crash once they stopped manipulating it and propping it up.

Then earnings momentum from the top companies kicked in ON TOP of that newly adjusted but crashed price.

Todays stock market, like the 2008/9 is being propped up to not factor in that it is actually small businesses that drive GDP growth in this countyr even if they do not drive stock markets. As small businesses are wiped out to the mass degree they have been that destroys the bulk of jobs that ordinary citizens rely upon. The owners of those companies (usually middle class, upper middle class) are wiped out and poor, and the employees are poorer.


This impacts real GDP significantly and the stock market eventually ALWAYS adjusts to mirror real GDP as one of its fundamental components as its baseline and from there you get momentum and fluctuations based on the index driver earnings reports.

If real GDP in the US in 2021, for example is at 1990's levels you will NOT see the baseline Markets with 2019 caps. It is silly to think those are disconnected.

Consumer spending. Small companies as employers are fundamental to real GDP and that has been massively set back but is being hidden from view to prop up the market but it ALWAYS adjusts and catches up. See 2008/9. They could only hide it so long.

Further to those who forget the lessons of 2008/9 as real GDP and underlying wealth was destroyed in America and the markets propped up but eventually fell, the big Banks who caused the problem all returned to massive profitability almost immediately, some record breaking.

The Dow and S&P did not return immediately and instead tracked the return of real GDP growth as people adjusted to the loss, got back in the systems and again started to spend money and grow the economy.

Things like Earnings reports from the Big Companies are indicators. They may predict future over all GDP growth or decline and in the short term speculators drive the base line to swing on that but as real data comes out those swings are forced to flatten over a longer term window view as it is the Real GDP that truly drives it.

So if when the dust settles the real GDP is around 1990 levels, expect the Stock index to adjust significantly downward (shed value) to mirror that.


--------

Demonstration of how stock index earnings relate to GDP:







Demonstration that GDP growth drove the stock index return:



Conclusion
The level of the Dow Jones Industrial Average can be broken down to two factors. Earnings and the P/E ratio. Earnings growth can deviate widely from GDP growth in the short-term but over longer periods earnings tend to track GDP growth reasonably closely, although it probably lags slightly in the long run.

What are the timelines different big states are supposed to resume evictions, foreclosures, and utility disconnections? This is a very big can of worms that's been kicked down the road but not really addressed at all. I believe in Ohio that is all supposed to resume before the end of the month.

Mortgage forbearance is another.
Unless something has since developed, when they passed CARES, they didn't specify how the forebearance must be repaid, which in many cases will simply be a lump sum demand. Some small community credit unions (or whatever) may make it a subordinate mortgage to the end, but most will not.

"Dear Borrower.
Your forebearance period has come to an end, and we've got bad news. In addition to the resumption of mortgage payments, you now owe us $17,422, due immediately or we foreclose"

Want to talk about a can of worms that will open next year... They will selectively target houses with equity or whose market values exceed the amount due for immediate amount-due forebearance termination. Those that are underwater and the borrower might stand a chance at keeping the hamster wheel spinning, those might get the "year 31" mortgage.

This empowers them to be incredibly predatory and develop inventory.

A lot of political over tones in this post.

Very positive noises emerging from the Oxford team but there's also talk of a controversial move that will please TS, DS and a few others

https://www.theguardian.com/science/...hallenge-trial

Simple solution - extend the mortgage by the amount of missed payments.

TS going from pro-mask to anti-mask just to defend trump is full mask off.

I dont hate trump, TS you are blinded by your love for him. also lol at saying fraction of people wearing masks then when called out its 30-70 percent. Ahh yes the fraction 7/10

If anyone still thinks TS is a legitimate valuable poster, lol. Hes got a 10 bagger coming up this week for you

This is why I think big cities and reits need to be shorted. With work from home becoming the norm from here on there will be no need for ridiculously overpriced real estate as people can go where they want. People are just gonna flee places like SF, NY, Minny, Seattle, Chicago etc. Why live in high tax, crime ridden hell holes with depreciating real estate values if you don't have to? The lasting effect of covid as I see it will be a real estate crash (both residential and commercial) in high tax metropolitan areas.

And the results will be highly suspect.

The cognitive dissonance had to be resolved and emotional ideology won over facts as it mostly does.

People want to live in cities to socialize, especially because there are smaller families and more singles.

I've always been strongly pro mask, that's never changed. There are two separate issues here which you lack even the minimal intelligence required to separate out:

1. Do masks work great if used properly? Yes
2. Can masks be forced to used properly? No, in many populations, the US definitely being one of these.

If you can make the populace wear them properly (for example in Japan where they're used to it) then they're great. What has changed is my take on how much difference they make in Western societies. Even socially responsible mandated mask societies like Germany suck at wearing them reliably. For example, here's a picture I took in a beer garden in the park near the cathedral in Berlin last week, a country with mandated masks:



This was standard everywhere. Face to face spittling at each other with no masks. And Germany is one of the better places; in Prague, like I said, 1 in 50 wear masks on packed public transport, if that. Virtually no one wears them in bars.

In Germany I went to multiple restaurants with food prep and servers unmasked, despite that being supposedly punishable by a fine. On public transport they were usually pulled down or taken off (people wore them in the station, then pulled them down once on the transport because they don't like them). It's a complete joke. Lots of things help make a difference to spread, but mask wearing in the US would be very low on the list. You think people are gonna wear masks at spring break? When they're out drinking with friends?

It's even more ultra lol to suggest that Trump wearing a mask would make a meaningful difference to mask wearing, and even more ultra wtf are you crazy lol to suggest that Trump not wearing a mask has contributed meaningfully to death (Democrats are the large majority of spreaders, and the CDC straight up said not to wear a mask for months at the time of worst spread/nearly all the deaths so far) or that Republicans are the problem from lower mask wearing. Some Trump hater claimed that, and when I rebutted that ridiculous notion with the fact that it's mostly Democrats spreading it, a bunch of Trump hating politics forum losers went ape ****.
20-70% percent in places where they're mandated. Plenty of places it's zero. See the picture above. There's a lot of that. Overall, I would guess that people in Germany wear masks in maybe 10% of the situations where corona can be spread.

Again, just offering genuine first hand observation from the countries I've been, where I was pretty amazed to see mandated, fine-able mask wearing be flouted everywhere, to the point of masks being almost pointless the way they were used.

Not really. Most people are morons who can't track more than one axis at once. "Mask wearing is great when done properly but don't seem to practically make a lot of difference in Western culture because the populace doesn't use them properly" is too much for most idiots to comprehend. They need it kept simple; its how their brains work, and that cognitive incapacity is why they're rabid ideologues to begin with. "Orange man bad" is something they can grasp. "Guy who doesn't speak in round intellectual tones is an idiot" is something they can grasp; the complexities of the situation are too much for them.