Since you want to be objective and claim Trump objectively deserves some blame, fill this in:

Objectively, if Trump had done _______________, deaths would be roughly ________ % (a meaningful number) lower right now.

You can't claim objectivity without some facts to back you up. Any analysis you do points to different Trump actions making next to no difference, because the screw ups were entirely by experts and they guaranteed what we see right now. If you can fill in the above it might move the conversation forward; everyone else has failed/declined to do so, which says everything you need to know about them.

Explain to me why you're calling me out and not this idiot below? He posts pure trash, and lots of of it:
Mocking America for their number of deaths (what the hell is wrong with this loser??), then going on Trump screeds which are fact-free:
He spews this trash over the thread, and when challenged, simply makes **** up. And you don't say anything while he posts this trash. But when I post a rebuttal with facts, logic and useful evidence, you have something to say?

Yes. Because you ought to be capable of stepping out of what is a pointless debate. I don't think he is. You are much more careful and disciplined and analytic than he is, so post to your capability.

I don't read Cuepee's posts because I don't think they are useful.

The "he does it too" BS is quite frankly below you.

The thing is that the latter makes me question his description of the former as well. I don't know how many masks people are wearing in Europe, but I'm not going to take the word of someone who clearly has so little regard for truth or objectivity.

Utter bollox, I have just been to Germany on business, masks were basically ubiquitous.

Also if you read the oot thread on C19 their are several posts by European posters talking about how everyone is wearing masks in their countries.

So unless we can actually see some aggregated independent data, claims of no one wearing masks in europe are to be taken with a grain of salt mine.

I think history has shown that it's not below him.

Taken at Frankfurt train station. Not by me.

The clear and undeniable facts of covid we know now are :

- Covid deaths, beyond a manageable baseline are largely a function of a hospital systems ability to deliver care to the influx of patience
- the covid transmission curve left unchecked will allow for spread that will eventually overwhelm the hospital system leading to a wave of otherwise unnecessary deaths.
- The covid curve CAN be flattened and thus slow the patient flow into hospital so people can be treated and discharged in a way that does not overwhelm the hospitals
- One way to flatten the covid curve is by either requiring people to shelter in place (authoritarian) or asking them to do so (voluntary compliance)
- a second way to flatten the covid curve is mask use which again comes down to requirement V voluntary compliance

This is manageable and doable and all sorts of countries outside the US are doing it better and proving it to be true through their maintenance of it (and even States within the US are that are lead by Governors who are following the clear road map and not the Trump's lead are doing it) .

And the entire US that was being largely affected did do it upfront (shelter in place) and greatly flattened the curve, which is one of the key reasons why even now as cases soar, death rates are low as the hospital system was able to recapture the capacity to treat the sick now flooding back in. That capacity is now quickly filling back up, which will lead to the next huge spike in deaths.


Why are we back here?

It was a huge question at the very beginnings of the first curve spike whether US citizens would voluntarily shelter in place and shut down businesses or if the 'muh freedoms' sentiment would keep them from doing that. That lead to a wide range of projected deaths, with the upper end being 100k-200k.

There was a collective surprise and relief that Americans did voluntarily follow the State requests and the curve fell quickly and those death estimates were revised to ~60k.

However Trump, fearing a prolonged economy closure would hurt his election chances, begun undermining anything he thought might scare people to not again re-start the economy. He needed people to be willing to go back to work, and kids back to school and his minions began a campaign of undercutting the message of 'safety first', which would allow for a cautious but slower return, to one of 'its a hoax. Don't be afraid, get out there'.

Immediately as it was clear that Trumps push was happening and people would be returning as he desired the death toll was again revised back up to the 100k-200k and now it pretty clear that if this wave is not subdued it will blow through that.

In summary, what we have learned is that for covid control measures to be effective, citizens must buy into them and practice them either through force or voluntarily.
That requires that government have a unified voice and plan that does not create confusion and allow citizens to pick what they want from it and discard the rest.

Beyond Trump's clear, massive failure at the start to come up with that plan as he sat and watched the wave slam into the US and mismanaged the preparation around PPE and ventilators which saw him squander the ability of the US to get ahead of the curve, he then, shamefully, has begun undoing the hard work and sacrifice that was made by those sheltering in place and beating down the first curve which has lead us now to this resurgence of that first wave being even more threatening than it was prior.

It is fair to say, at this point that the biggest challenge in dealing with covid thus far has not been the disease or the citizens, but rather trying to control Trump's undermining of things. He is wrestled down only in the face of impending calamity to accept measures and we see how dire things need to be before he will relent only now donning a mask himself.

Dealing with covid is not magic. It is all about hospital capacity. If a vaccine is not found eventually everyone will get it. So what matters is trying to maintain a curve that people can get in and out of the hospital which will result in a <1% death rate, as therapeutics evolve.. If instead you allow the hospitals to be over run such that doctors have to make choices on who they can even reach to treat, you will those 6% death numbers we saw at the height.

That is the only question really. This POTUS is fine with 6% death rate when instead <1% is achievable. Are you?

it is pretty clear that the TS has no issue lying if he thinks that is necessary to support his point. He is pushing this idea that during the pandemic and lock downs and border closures that he is personally traveling across many countries and witnessing this wide spread and typical lack of mask usage.

There are enough stats out there showing rates of compliance (mask usage, people limiting their mobility) to show the countries that are doing well and those who are not, to disregard such phony first hand accounts.

TS:

You've been challenged on the factual point with respect to mask wearing in the EU; the challenges are anecdotal, but so is your affirmative evidence.

Cue:

Literally nobody wants to read your political diatribes. Kindly stop.

I am terrible at stock investing. Bought Moderna at $56, went up to about $70, held, went back down to $59, sold last Thurs. Figured it may keep dropping, COVID vaccine may not be that big of a profit generator, Stage 3 trials could still fail, another company could beat them to market, etc. Three days later, it's at $85.

What does "basically ubiquitous" mean? 100%? 99%? 90%? 80%? In three days in Berlin, going to lots of different places, I noticed the following:

- Mask wearing ranging from 70% to 20%, depending on where you were.
- Much mask wearing is ineffective, pulled down completely
- Major violations including covid symptom young people coughing without masks were ignored
- Multiple shopkeepers and food prep places had no mask.

This is despite lack of mask wearing being supposedly mandated and supposedly fined. No one did anything against lack of mask wearers in shops, at the airport, in train stations. Neither of my uber drivers or taxi drivers wore masks. Hand sanitizier was rarely used

The main effect in Berlin is that almost no one is out (i.e. people aren't going out anywhere near as much), not masks. Germans aren't touchy feely people, and are pretty socially responsible, which is the main reason that antibodies are only a 1.3% in Germany as released today.

Another thing that people were wrong about with IFR - Germany didn't have any special treatment and in fact has the same death rate as other countries, it simply has lower total dead because far fewer got infected. That's now settled.

I can't speak for all European countries, but so far only Germany had a reasonable level of mask wearing, and that FAR from Asian standards. Prague has close to zero masks and close to zero distancing - I'll take a photo for you if you want. Croatia has a few masks but most don't wear them at all despite being mandated in shops, and shopkeepers etc usually have them pulled down.

You should not trade equities if your decisions aren't tethered to some kind of underlying understanding of something relevant. Otherwise, you're just in the greater-fool herd, in which case betting it all on red will probably yield a better statistical expectation than trying to juke the stock market.

True... I think that is why I am too swayed by every positive and negative article I read. Like I said, I think I am better suited to mutual funds/dollar cost averaging. Even when my original instinct to buy was correct, I sell winners too soon. I think I am a pessimist by nature so I react too quickly to any negative news, rather than sticking to my original reasons for buying in the first place.

Haha.

Not that this is a popularity contest but since you are determined to try and make it one, I would Av bet I get more compliments on my posts on this topic than you do, if you are up to it?

Prediction:

Over the next 30 days two countries will clearly distinguish themselves as stand outs with regards to stat trajectories (deaths, infection rates) to a degree that will be stark and shocking.

Those two countries will be the USA and Brazil.

The clear commonality of the two will be argued away by Trumpsters as not conclusive as they wave their arms in the air

If your original reasons will take time to develop, so will the price of the stock. Shambolic markets like this are basically more random than usual. Price action in climates like this doesn't relate to performance/insight/anything actionable.

If you're buying NOK and/or ERIC, the latest hot-take about a new client or a software problem or (whatever) is irrelevant. You're buying that for what will probably develop in 5g circa 2022-2025... so who cares if someone releases an article downgrading it? Nobody knows what will happen then, but those are good bets to make on (something in that space) happening and being profitible, whatever it may be.

Someone needs to do research about bad bear markets and the 10-year-out performance window from bear market analyst downgrades. Start with companies that are/were at least basically solvent when the downgrade occured, harvest a shitload of downgrade examples from, say, 08-09, then test it out to 2019. Or 87-07. Or 75-85. Whatever.

I wonder if you don't outperform based on nothing more than fading analyst downgrades on otherwise fundamentally sound companies in sectors that aren't shrinking...

If it is not clear it should be.

- step one 'slow the testing down'

if you cannot slow the testing down or even do

- step 2, take control of the data and results analysis and release only what you want viewed.

It is a nuance that the usually tact of 'presenting an alternative fact or reality' is not working here as those nuisance tests and data keep revealing undeniable truths. So these two steps are now required.

Case study out yesterday from the CDC regarding masks: https://www.cdc.gov/mmwr/volumes/69/wr/mm6928e2.htm

Two hairstylists (A and B) who were infected and symptomatic with COVID-19 worked on 139 clients. Everyone involved wore masks—nearly always cotton or surgical—at all times. None of the clients appear to have contracted COVID-19, although only 67 (those who volunteered) were tested. Stylist A appears to have infected Stylist B, as they would occasionally talk without masks when not treating clients. None of the other stylists contracted the virus. Stylist A also infected all four of her housemates.

'Vaccine hopes rise amid reports Oxford jab could give ‘double protection’

Oxford vaccine indicated that it stimulated the body to produce both antibodies and T-cells.

Great news thus far.

https://www.msn.com/en-gb/news/uknew...id=mailsignout

I remember seeing the interview maybe 2 months ago with a lady who was one of the researchers behind the Oxford vaccine. She looked very happy but was simply answering the questions asked to her. My gut instinct told me she knew it would work but could not say. It all has to get approved and go through multiple trials and stages. A while later, AstraZeneca announced that they want to supply Europe with 400 million doses of the Oxford vaccine.

I am feeling confident. I do not think this is a scam at all. The subjects tested and results recorded are fact.

I do think the Oxford vaccine will get here this year. We shall see.

Moderna so far is the tesla of biotech, but thats par for the course.

Its far from a 'scam' unless mRNA vaccines don't work and they already know it.

Moderna is now the 20th most valuable pharma company by market cap.
If anything, the more details they release, the more it shows their candidate will fail (as expected).

Did you even read the article?

Another person turned into a dickhead by Trump Derangement Syndrome. This is standard stuff and experts themselves say the CDC can't handle the data reporting and it needed overhauling to HHS. And it's now being made available again after yet another left wing bureaucracy screw up. There's literally nothing of interest here to anyone except conspiracy-minded idiots with TDS.