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Old 06-30-2020, 10:35 AM   #7651
somigosaden
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Re: Coronavirus

Not that I read the paper, since you could tell from the first two lines that it was going to be low-value pontificating, but I flipped through a few pages and my eye caught this beauty:

Quote:
We think it likely COVID-19 was in the US by October/November 2019 – and that this
readily-transmissible disease had already swept across the nation a few months later.
Thanks for the "must read," CoolTimer.
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Old 06-30-2020, 10:58 AM   #7652
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Re: Coronavirus

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Originally Posted by ToothSayer View Post
WTF is a "disease break point"?

We have the antibody data from Europe. Only 4.4% of France has been infected despite massive deaths. 5% of Italy/Spain.

It would make sense if the 5% were all the superspreaders/supercatchers with huge social contacts who skew the average Reproductive rate higher. And once they're immune the remaining population has such low social connection that the reproductive rate among them is less than 1. That's the theory behind his idea. It's basically another way of calculating the immune population percent required for herd immunity by taking into account the non-homogeneity of reproductive rates for individuals based on how much contact they have with other people.

I never heard of this before reading the link but I don't think it's a bogus idea nor is it difficult to understand. However, I think there is probably a lot of devil in the details of making the calculation.

The scatter point display he gives "proving" no correlation between social distancing and death rates is bogus imo. If you ignore the horizontal line drawn in and pick the horizontal line second from the bottom as separating low death rates from high death rates, you see a definite correlation. As you move between cohorts from lower social distancing to higher social distancing (left to right) you see a definite trend toward a lower percentage of dots with high death rates in the cohort. Not to mention the confounding factors of age and high overall social-distance areas where you might find seniors in care homes.


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Old 06-30-2020, 11:00 AM   #7653
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Re: Coronavirus

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I find it amusing that media tries to place blame for rising cases on "the reopening" instead of something more obvious. A ton of young people were protesting, not many get sick enough to be tested and they are passing it along. New cases are 20% young people. Mostly old people get sick enough to be tested. So well above 50% of people catching this could be under 30
Re-opening: all across the country, all 300+ million of us, most states are allowing gatherings of hundreds of people outside, and decent numbers inside in enclosed spaces for weeks now. Many states/localities not requiring masks, and the ones that do, do not have a high percentage of compliance (obviously variable). Many people stopped caring about social distancing as of Memorial Day weekend.

BLM protests: Anywhere from a handful to thousands of people protesting outside around the country for weeks. Little to no social distancing but pretty high prevalence of mask wearing.

It's silly to say that the protests would not have caused spreading. It's also silly to say that massive changes in what is allowed in again pretty much all the states wouldn't be a much higher contributing factor solely based on the massive difference in number of protesters vs number of people going back out and trying to re-establish some normalcy. There's tons of evidence that Memorial Day weekend, the country said F it.
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Old 06-30-2020, 11:53 AM   #7654
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Re: Coronavirus

Given we've had this type of spread in the sun belt during the summer, is a true 2nd wave in the fall almost a lock at this point?
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Old 06-30-2020, 12:10 PM   #7655
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Re: Coronavirus

You mean a 3rd wave?
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Old 06-30-2020, 12:18 PM   #7656
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Re: Coronavirus

I still consider right now to be in the 1st wave, don't see why it wouldn't be considering the states with cases rising the most have just begun to grow. That is semantics though I suppose.

Just saying, could the rona get a lot worse in the fall since the weather will be much worse, unless habits change drastically (which they likely won't since Americans are pretty much over this thing)
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Old 06-30-2020, 01:45 PM   #7657
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Re: Coronavirus

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Originally Posted by Onlydo2days View Post
I still consider right now to be in the 1st wave, don't see why it wouldn't be considering the states with cases rising the most have just begun to grow. That is semantics though I suppose.

Just saying, could the rona get a lot worse in the fall since the weather will be much worse, unless habits change drastically (which they likely won't since Americans are pretty much over this thing)
I personally would classify a wave as any period of sustained exponential growth.



Was unable to edit photo, but you can clearly see where exponential growth is occurring. I would say we are technically in the 2nd wave, and if the median-age of the infected is similar to what it was in the first wave, this wave should be much worse then the first one. By the way, I am not saying the median-age is the same, I am instead speaking theoretically. EDIT: Forgot about vitamin D, that should also at least in theory have a causative impact on the fatality rate, not sure too what degree though.

Last edited by Seedless00; 06-30-2020 at 01:51 PM.
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Old 06-30-2020, 01:55 PM   #7658
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Re: Coronavirus

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Old 06-30-2020, 02:59 PM   #7659
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Re: Coronavirus

Stop the Panic, End the Isolation

Article’s Author - Dr Scott Atlas

Quote:
Five key facts are being ignored by those calling for continuing the near-total lockdown.

Fact 1: The overwhelming majority of people do not have any significant risk of dying from COVID-19.

Fact 2: Protecting older, at-risk people eliminates hospital overcrowding.

Fact 3: Vital population immunity is prevented by total isolation policies, prolonging the problem.

Fact 4: People are dying because other medical care is not getting done due to hypothetical projections.

Fact 5: We have a clearly defined population at risk who can be protected with targeted measures.
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Old 06-30-2020, 03:00 PM   #7660
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Re: Coronavirus

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Originally Posted by Seedless00 View Post
I personally would classify a wave as any period of sustained exponential growth.



Was unable to edit photo, but you can clearly see where exponential growth is occurring. I would say we are technically in the 2nd wave, and if the median-age of the infected is similar to what it was in the first wave, this wave should be much worse then the first on
Seedless00,
I'd say there are probably far fewer cases in this wave (so far - maybe not for long) due to many more being tested. The real late March case count is several hundred K per day I'd say at the peak. We're far below the original wave so far. Thread needs more mspaint:



Black = infections, red = deaths, scaled to their own scale. That's probably close to the real infection graph. 130K dead at a 1% death rate means 13 million infected, so huge daily infections at the peak seems likely (a few hundred K added a day).
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Old 06-30-2020, 03:30 PM   #7661
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Re: Coronavirus

You should be the official hurricane chart guy for 2+2
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Originally Posted by ToothSayer View Post




After seeing your graph/chart, there is no way Trump drew that circle,
the circle is much too fluid/steady for Trump to have drawn it.
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Old 07-01-2020, 12:22 AM   #7662
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Re: Coronavirus

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Originally Posted by PairTheBoard View Post
It would make sense if the 5% were all the superspreaders/supercatchers with huge social contacts who skew the average Reproductive rate higher. And once they're immune the remaining population has such low social connection that the reproductive rate among them is less than 1. That's the theory behind his idea. It's basically another way of calculating the immune population percent required for herd immunity by taking into account the non-homogeneity of reproductive rates for individuals based on how much contact they have with other people.
Yeah the paper wasn't that bad and your summary of the "disease breaking point" is correct.

That being said it had some bad lines and points it should have clarified more. This being a particularly bad example:
Quote:
Counter to the prevailing narrative, engaging in activities outside the home is correlated with fewer deaths, while staying inside is correlated with more deaths.
It is pretty well established and communicated at this point that outside>inside so it is not the "prevailing narrative." Perhaps it was in the beginning and this should have been clarified especially since they are using it as evidence that the lockdowns were ineffective.

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Weird that David Capital Partners, does not have a website.
It's a hedge fund. Not unusual.
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Old 07-01-2020, 12:53 AM   #7663
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Re: Coronavirus

Here in Los Angeles County, we have the most coronavirus cases anywhere in the world. Last week I went out to grab takeout for dinner, and had to leave, because one of the employees wasn't wearing a mandated mask despite even being on the floor in front of customers. Friday night, I went out to the grocery store and the guy who tried to bag my groceries had his mask down exposing his nose.

Every time I venture outside, including tonight, roughly 10-15% of the people I see have no mask, and another 10-15% are walking around with their masks down or partially covering.

It's discouraging to say, but the U.S. population doesn't have what it takes to contain the virus compared to some other countries. Not because we lack the political or governance capacity to do so, but because collectively our population is generally reckless, irresponsible, arrogant, entitled, stupid, and lack consideration for the health and well being of others.
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Old 07-01-2020, 12:59 AM   #7664
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Re: Coronavirus

U.S. airlines will resume full capacity flights, beginning tomorrow:

https://thehill.com/news-by-subject/...pacity-flights

Honestly, how stupid does a person have to be to get on an airplane right now?
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Old 07-01-2020, 01:24 AM   #7665
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Re: Coronavirus

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Originally Posted by Shuffle View Post
U.S. airlines will resume full capacity flights, beginning tomorrow:

https://thehill.com/news-by-subject/...pacity-flights

Honestly, how stupid does a person have to be to get on an airplane right now?
I think that is where it is at now and a lot of the rest of the world will adopt. We can't stop it, you know the risks and how to protect yourself and live accordingly. Too much of an "inconvenience" to protect the at risk population.
France cinemas open with no social distancing or masks required.
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Old 07-01-2020, 01:46 AM   #7666
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Re: Coronavirus

They have flattened the curve and have the virus more or less under control though, at least for now.

The U.S. is just a raging petri dish of stupid and dangerous. There's a reason the EU and other countries are banning U.S. citizens, and if I could I would probably kick a lot of people out of this country and banish them somewhere else myself.

I mean how embarrassing is it when the entire world says that the people in your country are too stupid and dangerous to even be allowed in their countries.
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Old 07-01-2020, 02:13 AM   #7667
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Re: Coronavirus

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They have flattened the curve and have the virus more or less under control though, at least for now.

The U.S. is just a raging petri dish of stupid and dangerous. There's a reason the EU and other countries are banning U.S. citizens, and if I could I would probably kick a lot of people out of this country and banish them somewhere else myself.

I mean how embarrassing is it when the entire world says that the people in your country are too stupid and dangerous to even be allowed in their countries.
I'd gladly take a 14 day quarantine in a place like New Zealand if they will grant me amnesty.

Not to get too political as I try to leave that out of BFI, but since there has been some talk here, Trump has completely blown this and continues to make it worse, he has to make wearing masks political instead of for the common good or being any type of leader. TS had some good points early on but any defense at this point is inexcusable. Luckily Biden is a lock but probably too little too late.

Last edited by Shoe; 07-01-2020 at 02:23 AM.
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Old 07-01-2020, 03:43 AM   #7668
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Re: Coronavirus

Quote:
Originally Posted by Shuffle View Post
Here in Los Angeles County, we have the most coronavirus cases anywhere in the world. Last week I went out to grab takeout for dinner, and had to leave, because one of the employees wasn't wearing a mandated mask despite even being on the floor in front of customers. Friday night, I went out to the grocery store and the guy who tried to bag my groceries had his mask down exposing his nose.

Every time I venture outside, including tonight, roughly 10-15% of the people I see have no mask, and another 10-15% are walking around with their masks down or partially covering.

It's discouraging to say, but the U.S. population doesn't have what it takes to contain the virus compared to some other countries. Not because we lack the political or governance capacity to do so, but because collectively our population is generally reckless, irresponsible, arrogant, entitled, stupid, and lack consideration for the health and well being of others.
Now picture the south were maybe 10-15% ARE WEARING masks outside and 25-30% inside. Tons of people jamming bars n clubs and no social distancing. AMURICA will be fighting this for 5 years.
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Old 07-01-2020, 04:50 AM   #7669
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Re: Coronavirus

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Originally Posted by Shuffle View Post
They have flattened the curve and have the virus more or less under control though, at least for now.

The U.S. is just a raging petri dish of stupid and dangerous. There's a reason the EU and other countries are banning U.S. citizens, and if I could I would probably kick a lot of people out of this country and banish them somewhere else myself.

I mean how embarrassing is it when the entire world says that the people in your country are too stupid and dangerous to even be allowed in their countries.
Flattening the curve is fine but it's bound to come back.
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Old 07-01-2020, 05:18 AM   #7670
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Re: Coronavirus

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Flattening the curve is fine but it's bound to come back.
Its bound to come back is such a generalisation that it means nothing.
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Old 07-01-2020, 05:47 AM   #7671
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Re: Coronavirus

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Originally Posted by O.A.F.K.1.1 View Post
Its bound to come back is such a generalisation that it means nothing.
Well it wasn't eradicated and now they're giving people the option to go to movie theaters with no social distancing or masks. Seems like taking that line is not one that is too interested in keeping that curve flattened. It's fend for yourself ala Floridaland, just the residents may not be as braindead in France.
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Old 07-01-2020, 06:52 AM   #7672
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Re: Coronavirus

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Originally Posted by Shuffle View Post
Here in Los Angeles County, we have the most coronavirus cases anywhere in the world.
Quote:
It's discouraging to say, but the U.S. population doesn't have what it takes to contain the virus compared to some other countries. Not because we lack the political or governance capacity to do so, but because collectively our population is generally reckless, irresponsible, arrogant, entitled, stupid, and lack consideration for the health and well being of others.
Quote:
Originally Posted by Shoe View Post
Not to get too political as I try to leave that out of BFI, but since there has been some talk here, Trump has completely blown this and continues to make it worse, he has to make wearing masks political instead of for the common good or being any type of leader. TS had some good points early on but any defense at this point is inexcusable. Luckily Biden is a lock but probably too little too late.
This is some hilariously dumb logic. Democrats contradicting their own premises!

Let's follow Democrat voter logic:

Premise 1: The place with the most Trump hating people on earth (LA county, that votes 72% Democrat, 90+% among the young who spread it, who would never listen to Trump), has the most cases on Earth

Premise 2: The population is stupid and selfish (maybe get out of a Democrat county??) and hence the US will spread it regardless of leaders

Premise 3: This is Trump's fault and he continues to make this worse by not wearing a mask



You people are freaking insane. There's a thing called facts and evidence. If >80% of the people spreading are selfish young Democrats, you can't blame Trump and Trump's lack of wearing a mask for the vast majority of the problem, which is Democrat voter behavior. How does your brain not instantly understand this basic logic?

Last edited by ToothSayer; 07-01-2020 at 06:58 AM.
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Old 07-01-2020, 06:54 AM   #7673
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Re: Coronavirus

Those are two different posters you are quoting to get your checkmate, TS.
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Old 07-01-2020, 07:00 AM   #7674
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Re: Coronavirus

Edited for clarity. It's a checkmate to the views of 20+ irrational Trump haters that all have the same view:

Fact: Democrats are 80+% of the spreaders
Democrat Opinion: It's Trump's fault

This is on par with thinking that rioting, pulling down statues and defunding the police will make black lives better rather than worse. Facts, evidence and reason don't matter, these people are out of their mind.

If the red states were the ones spreading it (rather than overwhelmingly the blue states, overwhelmingly disproportionately Democrat voting minorities, overwhelmingly disproportionately Democrat voting young people), then sure, you could have a point that Trump's lack of wearing a mask/politics is a big problem. As it is the data is 100% against that opinion, yet people keep holding it because facts and evidence don't matter; Trump is the witch and the village mob will blame her for everything.
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Old 07-01-2020, 07:01 AM   #7675
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Re: Coronavirus

Tooth, both of these things can be true:

1) Trump has handled this poorly and had terrible messaging.
2) The effects from 1) are overstated by the media and the average person.

A good example of how to handle the coronavirus is the Greek Prime Minister. He emphasized the importance of masks and had the entire country on the same page in terms of the severity of the situation.

He definitely benefited from a more homogeneous country than the US but he showed great leadership.

Trump had many, many things going against him. But, Trump, along with the media, have created toxic division and as someone said above he's made the decision to wear a mask a political issue. That is poor leadership. Would also say that how the media has handled is poor journalistic integrity.

We can debate how big of an effect that has had on cases/deaths but it's hard to argue he showed good leadership and has handled this well.

I actually think he handled it somewhat well up until March or so. After that he's been objectively bad.

I think something to watch out for is having a contrarian bias. I know I have it. Let's say the truth is X. But, the other side says it's X+10. Saying it is X - 3 means you are still wrong.

The problem is just saying the truth might mitigate your political bargaining power. So, it creates a pendulum effect where each side counters ridiculousness with equal and opposite ridiculousness.

Last edited by jwd; 07-01-2020 at 07:14 AM.
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