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Old Today, 09:19 AM   #7126
ToothSayer
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Re: Coronavirus

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Originally Posted by arjun13 View Post
Yeah, that is an absurd post from TS. Like elrazor said, 1 in 20000 chance of death for a discrete event is so high. There is no way I am doing that (in before TS calls me irrational and a moron who cannot think). If you do 50 of these events over the course of 3 months of a pandemic, your odds of dying get pretty tangible (19999/20000^50).

There was one fairly big assumption that went unnoticed in TS' post as well. He said we can treat everyone in the group as 1 member, but then "gave us leeway" and counted it as 3 people. A group of 10+ people does not function as a group of 3.
Sure it does, for the purposes of covid, as most socializing is in-group. A group of 10 that travel and socialize together would have the infection acquisition rate of at most 2 people living normally in Florida imo.

Quote:
Originally Posted by Elrazor View Post
What you seem to be missing, and what other seem to have a better grasp of, is effects are cumulative and cannot be observed in isolation.

One in 20k is insanely higher for participation in a discrete event. If, during the Covid crisis, you make 19 other equally risky choices then you reduce the risk of death to 1 in 1000, with a 5% chance of being hospitalised.
Why do people disagree with me when I'm obviously right? Boggles the mind. Also, I assume 5% is a typo and you mean 0.5%.

I deliberately overstated the risk with 1 in 20,000 (it's certainly lower). But you guys are still quibbling.

So reality check on your "1 in 1000" for 20 risky events absurdity: Since the pandemic started 7 months ago, 700K people are dead (let's assume double official numbers). With 7 billion people in the world, you had a 1 in 10,000 chance of dying summed across all of your actions during those many months. Most of those deaths occurred from transmission while living as normal and doing "risky behavior". Most of this was concentrated in a few dense cities during winter - of which Florida wasn't one.

The odds in Florida are the same over those many months of people kissing, partying, shopping, having sex, living with family, working in retail/fast food/airports/restaurants etc - about 1 in 10,000 of dying. Over months. Most of those very old. It's about 1 in 100,000 over months in Florida if you don't have preexisting conditions and aren't very old. The same odds as many ordinary events/outings.

Flu season is actually a bigger risk for old people (kills 1% of old, 10-30% of the population gets it) than covid is at the transmission/infection rates in Florida now and likely in August. Yet few people change family plans because it's flu season. Avoiding spending 10 days in Florida because of covid is crazy.
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Old Today, 09:28 AM   #7127
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Re: Coronavirus

R > 1 worldwide cases despite so much heat and sunlight

Looks like it's trending that way in the U.S. too.

Tooth, what do you think are the chances U.S. breaks out again but markets keep rallying simply on inventory builds and then asset prices get wiped out later?
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Old Today, 09:36 AM   #7128
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Re: Coronavirus

Are there any bored actuaries in here that wanna take a stab at this hypothetical?
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Old Today, 10:00 AM   #7129
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Re: Coronavirus

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Originally Posted by Shuffle View Post
R > 1 worldwide cases despite so much heat and sunlight

Looks like it's trending that way in the U.S. too.

Tooth, what do you think are the chances U.S. breaks out again but markets keep rallying simply on inventory builds and then asset prices get wiped out later?
I think heat, sunlight and contact tracing/isolation will keep it below 1 in some places while remaining well above 1 in other places with poorer systems in place (some of the US definitely fits in that) or where the R0 is naturally very high (e.g. dense cities with lots of promiscuity). I think the 3x spread levels we saw in winter are probably gone for a good while due to a combination of summer and major behavioral changes/some things still closed like clubs and giant conferences (one in Malaysia spread it to 2500 for example)/immunity in some of the largest spreader nodes.

Prolonged economic damage and going back through lows is certain at this point imo baring some large development like a very early vaccine.
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Old Today, 12:38 PM   #7130
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Re: Coronavirus

I wonder how many posters arguing with TS about risk are fat, drink, smoke and participate in other activities that will very likely shave many years off of their life expectancy and life quality.

In some ways, Covid is our first social media disease, where people are drumming themselves up into fervor and paranoia. People trying to insert any sort of moderation into discussion seem to immediately typecast as "Covid denier/hoaxer/etc." It is very reminiscent of this new age of social media politics.

Covid is a risk but it is important to keep things in perspective. The risk is much higher for some people - the same sort of people who are always at high risk with almost every other disease.

For a country so fat and so full of self-inflicted diseases, it is rather ironic to see how America is panicking about a disease that will have a very small effect. But maybe this is just the Internet, where mostly people with strong opinions post things. When I go outside here in NYC, lots of people are on the streets, kids playing, couples picnicking in parks, families BBQing, people running and cycling more than ever, outdoor takeout spots crowding with people, etc.
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Old Today, 12:42 PM   #7131
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Re: Coronavirus

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Originally Posted by ToothSayer View Post
So reality check on your "1 in 1000" for 20 risky events absurdity: Since the pandemic started 7 months ago, 700K people are dead (let's assume double official numbers). With 7 billion people in the world, you had a 1 in 10,000 chance of dying summed across all of your actions during those many months. Most of those deaths occurred from transmission while living as normal and doing "risky behavior". Most of this was concentrated in a few dense cities during winter - of which Florida wasn't one.

The odds in Florida are the same over those many months of people kissing, partying, shopping, having sex, living with family, working in retail/fast food/airports/restaurants etc - about 1 in 10,000 of dying. Over months. Most of those very old. It's about 1 in 100,000 over months in Florida if you don't have preexisting conditions and aren't very old. The same odds as many ordinary events/outings.

Flu season is actually a bigger risk for old people (kills 1% of old, 10-30% of the population gets it) than covid is at the transmission/infection rates in Florida now and likely in August. Yet few people change family plans because it's flu season. Avoiding spending 10 days in Florida because of covid is crazy.
So your idea of a "reality check" is to take one of my original criticisms, that you have pulled numbers out of your arse, and double down by doing the same thing again?

Putting this aside for one moment, you have still claimed that 20,000-1 is a negligible risk when it patently isn't, and failed to account for the obvious fact that people going on holiday are on average going to engage in more risky behaviour than they would if they were at home in the context of the covid situation. Your reasoning that 10 people going away together is actually the same as two is equally flawed unless they are all going to go to the bathroom together in a restaurant.

It's also wrong to state that the majority of transmission occurred when outside of lockdown. Most countries locked down when numbers were in two or three figures, and by the time they began lifting them many were in four or five figures. For example, the UK locked down ~300 deaths and currently sits at 30k+.

I could go on as so many of your claims are clearly not thought through, but it's a futile exercise as I doubt it will make any difference to your hubris on the topic.

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Originally Posted by dc_publius View Post
I wonder how many posters arguing with TS about risk are fat, drink, smoke and participate in other activities that will very likely shave many years off of their life expectancy and life quality.
<15% body fat, rarely drink, have never smoked. Cycled 16 miles today in a hour, did 20k steps yesterday and did a TRX session in my garden Saturday.

Last edited by Elrazor; Today at 12:49 PM.
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Old Today, 01:00 PM   #7132
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Re: Coronavirus

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Originally Posted by Elrazor View Post
So your idea of a "reality check" is to take one of my original criticisms, that you have pulled numbers out of your arse, and double down by doing the same thing again?
Your first time debating toothy, I see.
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Old Today, 01:59 PM   #7133
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Re: Coronavirus

Wonder if there is anything here?

https://www.reuters.com/article/us-h...-idUSKBN2370OQ

-Although if you look at US data on Worldometer it seems deaths are dropping proportionally with new cases (accounting for time lag), and it isn't obvious the mortality/morbidity rate is dropping at all, which we would see if the virus is actually mutating into a weaker strain.
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Old Today, 02:05 PM   #7134
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Re: Coronavirus

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Originally Posted by Elrazor View Post
So your idea of a "reality check" is to take one of my original criticisms, that you have pulled numbers out of your arse, and double down by doing the same thing again?
It's an estimate. Numbers weren't out of anywhere, they were eminently reasonable, then deliberately biased hard to higher risk to get a lower bound. If you think the numbers aren't reasonable then propose others.

Your criticisms weren't cogent. For example, when I reality check this ridiculous take:
Quote:
Originally Posted by Elrazor View Post
One in 20k is insanely higher for participation in a discrete event. If, during the Covid crisis, you make 19 other equally risky choices then you reduce the risk of death to 1 in 1000, with a 5% chance of being hospitalised.
It shows by extension show that the numbers I gave were very conservative.
Quote:
Putting this aside for one moment, you have still claimed that 20,000-1 is a negligible risk
If you're making life decisions on 1 in 20K risks (and even better once you consider mitigating factors), you're not a sane person imo. Nor are you consistent; people do 1 in 20K activities all the time. Driving cross country rather than flying for example. Going traveling with elderly family members in flu season, which is WAY worse than covid at current infection rates. Swimming in the ocean, hiking, promiscuous sex, heavy drinking. Should people also not do that, because omg 1 in 20K bro!

Quote:
when it patently isn't, and failed to account for the obvious fact that people going on holiday are on average going to engage in more risky behaviour than they would if they were at home in the context of the covid situation.
You're assuming something that's not in evidence. Covid is spread mostly by prolonged close contact with external (from your group) infection sources. That's why the R0 is 3 rather than 50. So coworkers spread it, Tinder hookups spread it, etc. You have zero reason to believe that 10 people holidaying together, mostly socializing and traveling together, are more likely to get it. There's good reason to believe they're less likely to get it.

Quote:
Your reasoning that 10 people going away together is actually the same as two is equally flawed unless they are all going to go to the bathroom together in a restaurant.
You're assuming bathrooms are a meaningful source of spread because you don't know anything and are holding forth out of ignorance. Covid is spread primarily by close indoor social contact with people with whom you socialize or share indoor room space for a long time.

My analysis is excellent and based on data and facts; you have no clue what you're on about.

Quote:
It's also wrong to state that the majority of transmission occurred when outside of lockdown. Most countries locked down when numbers were in two or three figures, and by the time they began lifting them many were in four or five figures. For example, the UK locked down ~300 deaths and currently sits at 30k+.
Another dumb take. The peak of deaths happened 3-4 weeks after lockdown. Given the death lead time (average 18 days, tail 30+ days), these people were infected before lockdown. Ergo, wrong again.

Quote:
I could go on as so many of your claims are clearly not thought through, but it's a futile exercise as I doubt it will make any difference to your hubris on the topic.
They're highly thought through and based on facts and data about covid. You're just completely ignorant about the topic and have no clue about the subject matter. That's not my fault.

Last edited by ToothSayer; Today at 02:14 PM.
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Old Today, 03:20 PM   #7135
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Re: Coronavirus

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Originally Posted by Kelhus100 View Post
Wonder if there is anything here?

https://www.reuters.com/article/us-h...-idUSKBN2370OQ

-Although if you look at US data on Worldometer it seems deaths are dropping proportionally with new cases (accounting for time lag), and it isn't obvious the mortality/morbidity rate is dropping at all, which we would see if the virus is actually mutating into a weaker strain.
Lower viral loads could mainly or entirely be thanks to physical distancing, better hygiene and warmer and sunnier weather.
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Old Today, 03:21 PM   #7136
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Re: Coronavirus

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Originally Posted by dc_publius View Post
I wonder how many posters arguing with TS about risk are fat, drink, smoke and participate in other activities that will very likely shave many years off of their life expectancy and life quality.
Count me in. But then I'm an Epicurean hedonist whose also more worried about the rest of the family (and even wider society) than myself.

None of which has anything much to do with the arguments.
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Old Today, 03:33 PM   #7137
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Re: Coronavirus

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Originally Posted by ToothSayer View Post
It's an estimate.
Right so you pulled numbers out of your arse, admit to pulling them out of your arse but then amazingly all the conclusions you drew from them are still valid, regardless of how wrong they are.

You should get a job in The Humanities...
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Old Today, 03:38 PM   #7138
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Re: Coronavirus

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Originally Posted by Elrazor View Post
Right so you pulled numbers out of your arse, admit to pulling them out of your arse but then amazingly all the conclusions you drew from them are still valid, regardless of how wrong they are.
A Fermi estimate isn't "pulled out my ass", it's a considered estimate based on what we know about covid.
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You should get a job in The Humanities...
You should do any degree in hard sciences so you can grasp the concept of a lower bound/a Fermi estimate, and not flail around with invalid objections that are off by more than an order of magnitude.

There are 2 separate issues here.

1. Is the chance of death from covid in Florida for a family group arriving for 10 days in August likely to be greater than 1 in 20,000 (strong no).

2. Is this probability a valid reason to avoid an activity for which it's important enough that there is "significant family pressure" to do it. (strong no using any criteria we use to judge other risk/rewards)

You lose handily on both of those.

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Old Today, 03:43 PM   #7139
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Re: Coronavirus

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Originally Posted by dc_publius View Post
I wonder how many posters arguing with TS about risk are fat, drink, smoke and participate in other activities that will very likely shave many years off of their life expectancy and life quality.
I am currently drinking and getting fatter, but I didn't start until my late 30s so I have some catching up to do. Also, I don't really argue with TS only call him out when he's really out of line.
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Old Today, 03:48 PM   #7140
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Re: Coronavirus

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Originally Posted by Kelhus100 View Post
Wonder if there is anything here?

https://www.reuters.com/article/us-h...-idUSKBN2370OQ

-Although if you look at US data on Worldometer it seems deaths are dropping proportionally with new cases (accounting for time lag), and it isn't obvious the mortality/morbidity rate is dropping at all, which we would see if the virus is actually mutating into a weaker strain.
I think cases are starting to tick up again in the U.S. (deaths will lag) and we have every reason to expect them to climb exponentially again. Sunlight and warm weather might mitigate the spread of the disease, but as we can plainly see in Brazil data, it's not enough to drop R below 1 probably even with casual social distancing. The desire by morons to go back to the erupting volcano in Pompeii and open their stores and return to their nail salons because welp, just gotta go back to normal I guess, will doom us all.
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Old Today, 03:57 PM   #7141
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Re: Coronavirus

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Originally Posted by ToothSayer View Post
There are 2 separate issues here.

1. Is the chance of death from covid in Florida for a family group arriving for 10 days in August likely to be greater than 1 in 20,000 (strong no).

2. Is this probability a valid reason to avoid an activity for which it's important enough that there is "significant family pressure" to do it. (strong no using any criteria we use to judge other risk/rewards)

You lose handily on both of those.
1, I've never made an argument that this is or is not the case, so;

2, Is invalid.
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Old Today, 05:17 PM   #7142
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Re: Coronavirus

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Originally Posted by chytry View Post
Lower viral loads could mainly or entirely be thanks to physical distancing, better hygiene and warmer and sunnier weather.
Wanted to say this. Too early to say given how little we know on this virus. It's not bad obv. Especially if the people with low viral load will get immunity against high viral loads.
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Old Today, 07:32 PM   #7143
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Re: Coronavirus

Top Doc in Italy saying thay the coronavirus no longer clinically exists there. The strain of the virus now is basically much weaker than before.

This is what is going to happen as i said before. This virus will basically burn out or adapt to live with humans so it can survive. There is no end of world secnario. There is no end of humanity scenario. In some months from now this will finally be nearing the end.
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Old Today, 07:51 PM   #7144
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Re: Coronavirus

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Originally Posted by PuttingInTheGrind View Post
Top Doc in Italy saying thay the coronavirus no longer clinically exists there. The strain of the virus now is basically much weaker than before.
This is what is going to happen as i said before. This virus will basically burn out or adapt to live with humans so it can survive.
10 weeks of aggressive lockdown quarantine will make new cases near zero. The cases that do exist will be the young and mobile as the old and ill isolate (in Belgium for example 9% of people have antibodies but only 3% of the old). So the later cases will appear milder.

I don't believe there is any evidence, nor does the doc have any evidence, that "the strain of the virus is much weaker". The hospitals have just stopped filling up and it's no longer a neverending shitshow of corpses and suffocations because the cases are dropped so much with lockdown and no doubt the viral loads received are way lower. That's not to say it can't be a new strain, but there is zero evidence of it.
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There is no end of world secnario. There is no end of humanity scenario. In some months from now this will finally be nearing the end.
There was never an "end of world" scenario. Hell, humanity has lived with 30-60% death rate highly contagious smallpox for >3000 years. There was however a >10 million dead scenario without lockdown. As it is (with aggressive 8 week global lockdowns) we have >500K dead including uncounted around the world, and it's far from done.

Last edited by ToothSayer; Today at 08:01 PM.
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Old Today, 08:50 PM   #7145
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Re: Coronavirus

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Originally Posted by PuttingInTheGrind View Post
Top Doc in Italy saying thay the coronavirus no longer clinically exists there. The strain of the virus now is basically much weaker than before.
This was BS. There's absolutely no data or study and it was just one guy running his mouth, who didn't even have the political skill to hide his intentions. Literally the first or second quote from him in the article I read was his insistence that it was time to start reopening the economy.
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Old Today, 08:55 PM   #7146
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Re: Coronavirus

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Originally Posted by Shuffle View Post
This was BS. There's absolutely no data or study and it was just one guy running his mouth, who didn't even have the political skill to hide his intentions. Literally the first or second quote from him in the article I read was his insistence that it was time to start reopening the economy.

There are obviously ramifications for not opening the economy. It was all about getting tbhis virus under control first and then opening up in a step by step manner while monitoring.

What would you do?
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Old Today, 09:16 PM   #7147
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Re: Coronavirus

I didn't make any comment in that post about what steps should or shouldn't be taken to contain the spread of the virus and reopen the economy. Simply pointing out that the good and well-paid doctor's words were bullshit.
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Old Today, 09:25 PM   #7148
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Re: Coronavirus

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You should get a job in The Humanities...
Ouch, sick burn.
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