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Old 05-30-2020, 04:08 PM   #7101
thethrill009
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Re: Coronavirus

We are debating flying my family into Florida to visit relatives in early August.

Can someone give me a sense of what the situation there will be by then?

My gut is this is a reckless idea, Iím an expat in a safe country, but there is family pressure to make it happen.

Any insights would really help
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Old 05-30-2020, 04:16 PM   #7102
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Re: Coronavirus

fwiw I'm going for the wait and see approach in similar situations.

I think it's ludicrous to even consider but 'lets wait and see' seems to work a lot better
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Old 05-30-2020, 05:49 PM   #7103
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Re: Coronavirus

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fwiw I'm going for the wait and see approach in similar situations.

I think it's ludicrous to even consider but 'lets wait and see' seems to work a lot better

Lol you took the words out of my mouth. We are technically deciding next month but others have already booked and are pressuring my wife to do so as well. Sigh.

Anyone else who wants to chime in please do so.
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Old 05-30-2020, 08:41 PM   #7104
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Re: Coronavirus

Well let's do the ballpark math. Florida is currently officially adding 1000 cases/day on 30 million people. Your odds of catching it in Florida per day are 1 in 30,000.

Now let's assume these undercount by 10x because the tests miss 10x cases. Your odds of catching it per day are 1 in 3000 then. In 10 days there your odds of catching it are about 1 in 300. Maybe a bit lower because of your limited socializing (the 10K who get are the high risk, morons and public-contacted workers), maybe a bit higher because of the travel contact.

We can probably treat all members of your group as one person since they'll socialize together. But more people adds more risk. So let's ballpark it at 1 in 100 chance of getting corona.

If you or your family get corona, you have a 1 in 40 chance of hospitalization-required, and a 1 in 200 chance of death (assuming a mix of ages but no very old/ill). So overall, in 10 days in Florida, assuming conditions similar to today:

- About 1 in 4000 chance of ending up in hospital
- About 1 in 20,000 chance of dying

For comparison, you have, per year:

- A 1 in 70 chance of needing medical care in a car crash, some of these being serious
- A 1 in 8000 chance of dying in a car crash

The odds are even better when you consider the chance that you'll eventually get it anyway, and add in the anxiety reducing value of being immune early.

Seems completely rational to decide to go unless infections go nuts. Immunity at contact points such as while traveling should be even better by then, reducing transmission rates and odds. Summer will help too.

There are other considerations (getting caught in lockdowns, quarantines, etc), but I don't think it's nuts at all to just go.

Last edited by ToothSayer; 05-30-2020 at 08:49 PM.
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Old 05-31-2020, 05:33 AM   #7105
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Re: Coronavirus

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Originally Posted by ToothSayer View Post
The odds are even better when you consider the chance that you'll eventually get it anyway, and add in the anxiety reducing value of being immune early.
.
I mentioned this dangerous kind of thinking months ago.

You don't want to get it.

Same as you don't want to get measles, malaria and so on.
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Old 05-31-2020, 06:09 AM   #7106
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Re: Coronavirus

Yes you really don't want to get it. And if you do get it then the later the better as treatments are improving and very likely to keep doing so.

You also don't want the whole family across multiple households to get it at the same time. Apart from the tragedy potential, that's your main support network if any one of the family households gets it.
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Old 05-31-2020, 07:08 AM   #7107
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Re: Coronavirus

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I mentioned this dangerous kind of thinking months ago.

You don't want to get it.
chytry,
Of course you wouldn't deliberately infect yourself. That's very different to pointing out the further odds reduction that eventual infection gives on top of:

- About 1 in 4000 chance of ending up in hospital
- About 1 in 20,000 chance of dying

These are odds we gladly do every day (and subject our whole family to) when we go for a long driving holiday, go swimming, go hiking, have a big night drinking, etc. It's kind of silly to alter life plans because of these odds, let alone act like it's crazy to do it.
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Same as you don't want to get measles, malaria and so on.
Right, but would you alter life and family plans because there's say a measles outbreak among schoolchildren in Florida? Or a flu outbreak (which happens every year and kills 1% of the old)? That stuff never makes the news let alone alters travel plans. Would you recommend not going on a tropical holiday in a low malaria area because of 1 in 100 malaria infection potential? No one does this, so why are they doing it for covid?

Last edited by ToothSayer; 05-31-2020 at 07:13 AM.
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Old 05-31-2020, 09:43 AM   #7108
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Re: Coronavirus

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chytry,
Of course you wouldn't deliberately infect yourself. That's very different to pointing out the further odds reduction that eventual infection gives on top of:

- About 1 in 4000 chance of ending up in hospital
- About 1 in 20,000 chance of dying

These are odds we gladly do every day (and subject our whole family to) when we go for a long driving holiday, go swimming, go hiking, have a big night drinking, etc. It's kind of silly to alter life plans because of these odds, let alone act like it's crazy to do it.
These odds are individual and your behaviour matters. And ideas drive your behaviour.
Quote:
Right, but would you alter life and family plans because there's say a measles outbreak among schoolchildren in Florida? Or a flu outbreak (which happens every year and kills 1% of the old)? That stuff never makes the news let alone alters travel plans. Would you recommend not going on a tropical holiday in a low malaria area because of 1 in 100 malaria infection potential? No one does this, so why are they doing it for covid?
If you go into a malaria area, you do everything in your power to lower the chances of contracting it. Vigilance changes life outcomes in a big way.
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Old 05-31-2020, 10:32 AM   #7109
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Re: Coronavirus

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These odds are individual and your behaviour matters. And ideas drive your behaviour.
I have no idea what this means. Are you suggesting that it's +EV to sit at home like a loser for a 1 in 20K (at worst) chance of someone in your family dying? Life has 100% IFR anyway, letting a 1 in 20K chance of death stop you doing something is crazy. And it's also not how most people live - they gladly drive cars, speed to shave a few minutes off arrival times, drink heavily sometimes, follow paths in life that increase early death odds (when was the last time you ate processed/grilled meat?), etc.

Quote:
If you go into a malaria area, you do everything in your power to lower the chances of contracting it.
I've been to multiple tropical countries and never had vaccinations or malaria meds. It's just not a sane thing to do, especially once you consider the cost and side effects. Maybe it makes sense if you're going into African jungles. That's about it.

Quote:
Vigilance changes life outcomes in a big way.
No it doesn't. Eating well, not drinking heavily, not smoking, staying fit are what change life outcomes, "vigilance" on 1 in 20,000 odds is for lifetards, it's completely meaningless.
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Old 05-31-2020, 11:04 AM   #7110
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Re: Coronavirus

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Originally Posted by thethrill009 View Post
We are debating flying my family into Florida to visit relatives in early August.

Can someone give me a sense of what the situation there will be by then?

My gut is this is a reckless idea, Iím an expat in a safe country, but there is family pressure to make it happen.

Any insights would really help
Not sure how significant family pressure is to you, but if it's important, and it matters that much, then go ahead and plan a trip. Just do so cautiously, knowing what you know...

ToothSayer is right

However, if I'm in your position, then I'm openly stating let's wait. Unless I feel a compelling reason to move forward with a family gathering, I'm seeing no reason not to just have patience. The last thing I would want to do is be unlucky, suffer harm or death or be the cause of it to a family member, and merely a month later there's a vaccine or an effective treatment

It's not a big deal either way. You're not an ******* for wanting to live like a human being. Just be rational and cautious. And live. There's nothing wrong with telling fam hey let's just wait and see. Another few months is not a big deal, is it? Staying home in fear, yes, is one way of being a fish at life. However, not all people choosing to stay home are fish at life. Just be smart about it
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Old 05-31-2020, 01:00 PM   #7111
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Re: Coronavirus

So what are these riots going to do to CV in USA? This can't be good, right? USA is also only in the starting point of their tail-battle and this is going to at minimum stop slowing down by a lot?

Will this be a 2nd wave? Or not that bad?

(not trying to start a discussion on the riots itt, so please don't, just the CV impact)

Last edited by bbfg; 05-31-2020 at 01:10 PM.
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Old 05-31-2020, 01:08 PM   #7112
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Re: Coronavirus

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Originally Posted by bbfg View Post
So what are these riots going to do to CV in USA? This can't be good, right? USA is also only in the starting point of their tail-battle and this is doing?

Will this be a 2nd wave? Or not that bad?

(not trying to start a discussion on the riots itt, so please don't, just the CV impact)


I was wondering the same and was going to post that it is interesting to see what happens here in the UK since they are easing the lockdown and people are now going out. There are also protests here about the killing by that cop.

Who really knows. Obviously we would rather these mass gatherings would not happen. I have maintained that i would like to see the economy opening up again but with social distancing in place and people wearing masks where they can.

I am meeting my personal trainer in the park where we do boxing training. He takes me on the pads so we are fairly close, plus he meets up with other people and trains them. There is risk everywhere but you got to live life to a degree. My gut has always been that this virus will die out eventually before a reliable vaccine. We shall see.

By the way, Florida looks to be 100% back to normal. No social distancing and beaches and restaurants are packed.
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Old 05-31-2020, 01:38 PM   #7113
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Re: Coronavirus

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Originally Posted by ToothSayer View Post
"vigilance" on 1 in 20,000 odds is for lifetards, it's completely meaningless.
I don't think that's the 'vigilance'. The 'vigilance' is on the odds being far worse than that.

If you get together in a group where if one get's it then many get it, then your exposing everyone to ~the sum of the most dangerous members of that group. And that is quite likely to be way above your 1 in 20,00. Not least because those wishing for such a get together are unlikely to be the most cautious - they wont have done your maths, they will just be relatively careless. And you have to travel/etc which again puts you in contact with the more careless people.

Put another way. If it was a get together of people like me then we would all be relatively safe because people like me are not getting together.

Plus of course there's a serious danger of another explosion in cases.
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Old 05-31-2020, 02:57 PM   #7114
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Re: Coronavirus

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And that is quite likely to be way above your 1 in 20,000
No it isn't. The background odds all cover that. And the fact that most of the socializing occurs in-group greatly reduces the odds as well. You're not thinking about this clearly.

And the "explosion in cases" isn't a risk, we'll know how many there are in August. You're being ruled by fear rather than rationality.
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Old 05-31-2020, 03:04 PM   #7115
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Re: Coronavirus

It has to be behavior dependent. And getting together with people who behave in a more risky manner increases your risk. I suspect you're missing something here. The average risk is not evenly distributed.

The explosion is a risk unless you adopt the wait and see approach. You might think people will assess it rationally but in reality if they're committed to going then they are far more likely to persuade themselves it's ok.
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Old 05-31-2020, 05:27 PM   #7116
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Re: Coronavirus

chez,
It's you that's "missing something here" - and that something is the big picture. All your special pleading one way ignores the stuff that goes the other way. You special pleading is too small scoped and influenced by anxiety.

The risk of them getting covid is a basic Fermi problem and the odds I quoted are close enough that the point doesn't change - it's really quite dumb not to plan to go as far as death or illness risk goes.
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Old 05-31-2020, 05:36 PM   #7117
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Re: Coronavirus

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Originally Posted by bbfg View Post
So what are these riots going to do to CV in USA? This can't be good, right? USA is also only in the starting point of their tail-battle and this is going to at minimum stop slowing down by a lot?

Will this be a 2nd wave? Or not that bad?

(not trying to start a discussion on the riots itt, so please don't, just the CV impact)
Kind of glad for these mass gatherings. I mean let's get this show on the road since reducing it doesn't seem to be a significant amount of the population's goal this can help not drag it out so long.
All these people in tight quarters shouting like a choir and eventually police will start going through footage and arresting people. County jails are a great place to help the spread.
LFG!
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Old 05-31-2020, 07:13 PM   #7118
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Re: Coronavirus

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chez,
It's you that's "missing something here" - and that something is the big picture. All your special pleading one way ignores the stuff that goes the other way. You special pleading is too small scoped and influenced by anxiety.

The risk of them getting covid is a basic Fermi problem and the odds I quoted are close enough that the point doesn't change - it's really quite dumb not to plan to go as far as death or illness risk goes.
You can't just say it's a fermi problem and claim victory.

It's like considering a monogamous couple where one has a one night stand of unprotected sex. The chance of giving their own partner a STD cannot ignore the fact that the 3rd person they had sex with is more likely than average to be infected just because they are the sort of person who has unprotected one night stands.

and this is reason not anxiety. I'm one of the most laid back dudes you will ever meet
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Old 05-31-2020, 08:42 PM   #7119
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Re: Coronavirus

I'm not saying that there are no objections to be made, I'm saying that the objections you've put forward so far are completely invalid and about 3 levels below where the conversation is. Your objections have already been explicitly incorporated into the model by me before you even thought them. Even besides that the model is primed to majorly overstate the odds of catching it, not understate it.

1 in 20K chance of death from covid is a perfectly reasonable worst case estimate for being in Florida for 10 days in August. And I maintain that 1 in 20K is a number that's insane to make any life choices on. The only reason you'd be so foolish as to change your plans on a number that tiny is irrational anxiety.
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Old 05-31-2020, 08:59 PM   #7120
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Re: Coronavirus

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I have no idea what this means. Are you suggesting that it's +EV to sit at home like a loser for a 1 in 20K (at worst) chance of someone in your family dying? Life has 100% IFR anyway, letting a 1 in 20K chance of death stop you doing something is crazy. And it's also not how most people live - they gladly drive cars, speed to shave a few minutes off arrival times, drink heavily sometimes, follow paths in life that increase early death odds (when was the last time you ate processed/grilled meat?), etc.


I've been to multiple tropical countries and never had vaccinations or malaria meds. It's just not a sane thing to do, especially once you consider the cost and side effects. Maybe it makes sense if you're going into African jungles. That's about it.


No it doesn't. Eating well, not drinking heavily, not smoking, staying fit are what change life outcomes, "vigilance" on 1 in 20,000 odds is for lifetards, it's completely meaningless.
Iíve travelled quite a lot too and never got the recommended vaccinations. Once in Mexico I was going for a long walk and spotted a water bottle on the ground with a blue liquid in it. I was thirsty and wasnít going to let some germs ruin my parade. I did end up with burning while urinating but I think that was dehydration and the mystery liquid probably saved me.
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Old 05-31-2020, 09:08 PM   #7121
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Re: Coronavirus

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Originally Posted by ToothSayer View Post
I'm not saying that there are no objections to be made, I'm saying that the objections you've put forward so far are completely invalid and about 3 levels below where the conversation is. Your objections have already been explicitly incorporated into the model by me before you even thought them. Even besides that the model is primed to majorly overstate the odds of catching it, not understate it.

1 in 20K chance of death from covid is a perfectly reasonable worst case estimate for being in Florida for 10 days in August. And I maintain that 1 in 20K is a number that's insane to make any life choices on. The only reason you'd be so foolish as to change your plans on a number that tiny is irrational anxiety.
and I'm saying you've missed that a good estimate of your risk is of the order of the most risky person in the group. That underestimates the risk more as the group grows larger.

You can insist you're 3 levels ahead but if you've missed that, you've missed what matters in your rush to get to the far less relevant stuff.
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Old 06-01-2020, 03:54 AM   #7122
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Re: Coronavirus

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Originally Posted by ToothSayer View Post
chytry,
Of course you wouldn't deliberately infect yourself. That's very different to pointing out the further odds reduction that eventual infection gives on top of:

- About 1 in 4000 chance of ending up in hospital
- About 1 in 20,000 chance of dying

These are odds we gladly do every day (and subject our whole family to) when we go for a long driving holiday, go swimming, go hiking, have a big night drinking, etc. It's kind of silly to alter life plans because of these odds, let alone act like it's crazy to do it.
What you seem to be missing, and what other seem to have a better grasp of, is effects are cumulative and cannot be observed in isolation.

One in 20k is insanely higher for participation in a discrete event. If, during the Covid crisis, you make 19 other equally risky choices then you reduce the risk of death to 1 in 1000, with a 5% chance of being hospitalised.

Secondly, while in Florida if we "have a big night drinking" we not only increase the chance of exposure by human contact, but increase the chance of death by lowering immune functioning. Just read the first sentence to get the gist.

In fact, we could quite possibly make 19 other risky choices while on holiday in Florida, and each of these risky choices could impair our immune functioning to further increase the relative risk.

In sum, the additional risks are not "priced in" to your back of a cigarette-packet calculation of 1 in 20,000. This number covers Florida residents taking a average number of precautions, not risk-tolerant tourists doing Florida tourist stuff.
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Old 06-01-2020, 04:29 AM   #7123
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Re: Coronavirus

Yeah, that is an absurd post from TS. Like elrazor said, 1 in 20000 chance of death for a discrete event is so high. There is no way I am doing that (in before TS calls me irrational and a moron who cannot think). If you do 50 of these events over the course of 3 months of a pandemic, your odds of dying get pretty tangible (19999/20000^50).

There was one fairly big assumption that went unnoticed in TS' post as well. He said we can treat everyone in the group as 1 member, but then "gave us leeway" and counted it as 3 people. A group of 10+ people does not function as a group of 3.
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Old 06-01-2020, 05:57 AM   #7124
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Re: Coronavirus

just another quick point as i think no one mentioned it - its not only about personal risk. If you catch it and on average r0>1.0 then the risk for the population as a whole is much bigger with the cumulative transmission from you and ppl you infect and so on, thats a big reason u cant think only in terms of individual risk (well u still can but its a pretty narrow egoistical view )
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Old 06-01-2020, 07:41 AM   #7125
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Re: Coronavirus

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just another quick point as i think no one mentioned it - its not only about personal risk. If you catch it and on average r0>1.0 then the risk for the population as a whole is much bigger with the cumulative transmission from you and ppl you infect and so on, thats a big reason u cant think only in terms of individual risk (well u still can but its a pretty narrow egoistical view )
Interesting to look at how different cultures / societies perform. Shows you how delusional the sense of self & free will is.
But if you can look at it with as little bias as possible, you can influence your individual behaviour accordingly.
The more reckless you are in a individualistic society, the better the society accepts you and vice versa, with irrational local exceptions.
Then again, maverick behaviour is attractive to many
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