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Old 05-27-2020, 11:04 AM   #7051
RikaKazak
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Re: Coronavirus

Quote:
Originally Posted by CharlieDontSurf View Post
where did u get the pneumonia death stats from?
The post right before the post you quoted has the links.

Sorry, I should of included everything in 1 big post.

And for the record, I didn't do the math/figure this out. A redditor did and I merely reposted here so people could see. After rereading my post I see how I did a poor job explaining that originally, sorry.

And his math (other then the mistake outlined in post 1) seems spot on.
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Old 05-27-2020, 03:52 PM   #7052
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Re: Coronavirus

Transcript of Mainer vs. Pritzker

https://docs.google.com/viewerng/vie...671/ruling.pdf
Quote:
Since the inception of this insanity, the following regulations, rules or consequences have occurred: I wonít get COVID if I get an abortion but I will get COVID if I get a colonoscopy. Selling pot is essential but selling goods and services at a family-owned business is not. Pot wasnít even legal and pot dispensaries didnít even exist in this state until five months ago and, in that five months, they have become essential but a family-owned business in existence for five generations is not.

A family of six can pile in their car and drive to Carlyle Lake without contracting COVID but, if they all get in the same boat, they will. We are told that kids rarely contract the virus and sunlight kills it, but summer youth programs, sports programs are cancelled. Four people can drive to the golf course and not get COVID but, if they play in a foursome, they will. If I go to Walmart, I wonít get COVID but, if I go to church, I will. Murderers are released from custody while small business owners are threatened with arrest if they have the audacity to attempt to feed their families.

Our economy is shut down because of a flu virus with a 98 percent plus survival rate. Doctors and experts say different things weekly. The defendant cites models in his opposition. The only thing experts will agree on is that all models are wrong and some are useful. The Centers for Disease Control now says the virus is not easily spread on surfaces.

The defendant in this case orders you to stay home and pronounces that, if you leave the state, you are putting people in danger, but his family members traveled to Florida and Wisconsin because he deems such travel essential. One initial rationale why the rules donít apply to him is that his family farm had animals that needed fed. Try selling that argument to farmers who have had to slaughter their herds because of disruption in the supply chain.

When laws do not apply to those who make them, people are not being governed, they are being ruled. Make no mistake, these executive orders are not laws. They are royal decrees. Illinois citizens are not being governed, they are being ruled. The last time I checked Illinois citizens are also Americans and Americans donít get ruled. The last time a monarch tried to rule Americans, a shot was fired that was heard around the world. That day led to the birth of a nation consensually governed based upon a document which ensures that on this day in this, any American courtroom tyrannical despotism will always lose and liberty, freedom and the constitution will always win.
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Old 05-27-2020, 06:18 PM   #7053
revots33
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Re: Coronavirus

Moderna feeling like a buy here. Drop seemed to be based on one guy in the study who reported nausea and light headedness after getting the highest-level dose.
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Old 05-27-2020, 06:53 PM   #7054
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Re: Coronavirus

What % of Americans will agree to vaccination if a vaccine exists?
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Old 05-27-2020, 07:46 PM   #7055
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Re: Coronavirus

Quote:
Originally Posted by Love Sosa View Post
I think you are being a little harsh on Americans. There is definitely lockdown fatigue going on in a lot places, I'm seeing it first hand in Canada. We are social beings, we're not wired to endure long periods of lockdowns and distancing, that's not something unique to Americans IMO. We don't need to pack into arenas but small gatherings should be fine.

I will say though, the surefire method to get americans to do something is to tell them not to do it.

e.g I find hanging out with friends good for my mental health, so I do it. Selfish? Ok...maybe, but I put my own health above others, I don't believe in sacrificing my own health for some sort of abstract "greater good".
Lovebeta,

Thought you were a manly man?

needing to socialize with others for your mental health seems very BETA male. Another fake conservative alpha male exposed. It was a good run
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Old 05-27-2020, 07:50 PM   #7056
bruce@lfb
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Re: Coronavirus

Quote:
Originally Posted by despacito View Post
What % of Americans will agree to vaccination if a vaccine exists?
Who knows... Maybe 80%
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Old 05-27-2020, 08:08 PM   #7057
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Re: Coronavirus

Quote:
Originally Posted by PokerHero77 View Post
Gov. Big Boy just trying to stay shut down until the feds bail his fat ass out. Illinois was already bankrupt before this and now its all but done. I can't quite leave Illinois quite yet due to family concerns but as soon as I can I will be outta this as soon as possible.
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Old 05-27-2020, 08:09 PM   #7058
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Re: Coronavirus

Quote:
Originally Posted by bruce@lfb View Post
Who knows... Maybe 80%
I saw a poll somewhere that said exactly that.
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Old 05-27-2020, 08:15 PM   #7059
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Re: Coronavirus

Quote:
Originally Posted by mrbaseball View Post
Gov. Big Boy just trying to stay shut down until the feds bail his fat ass out. Illinois was already bankrupt before this and now its all but done. I can't quite leave Illinois quite yet due to family concerns but as soon as I can I will be outta this as soon as possible.
me and you both my friend.
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Old 05-27-2020, 08:49 PM   #7060
despacito
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Re: Coronavirus

Quote:
Originally Posted by bruce@lfb View Post
Who knows... Maybe 80%
Quote:
Originally Posted by mrbaseball View Post
I saw a poll somewhere that said exactly that.
I would take the under on 80% nationally, but maybe in some states, idk tho.

Saw a polls ranging from 40% to 80% nationally.
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Old 05-27-2020, 09:02 PM   #7061
bruce@lfb
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Re: Coronavirus

I am not taking it.
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Old 05-28-2020, 12:13 AM   #7062
despacito
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Re: Coronavirus

Quote:
Originally Posted by bruce@lfb View Post
I am not taking it.
Is it the Bill Gates nanobots thing?
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Old 05-28-2020, 01:14 AM   #7063
rickroll
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Re: Coronavirus

Quote:
Originally Posted by GreenSmoke85 View Post
Lovebeta,

Thought you were a manly man?

needing to socialize with others for your mental health seems very BETA male. Another fake conservative alpha male exposed. It was a good run
i'm guessing there is some backstory here
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Old 05-28-2020, 02:18 AM   #7064
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Re: Coronavirus

Quote:
Originally Posted by Love Sosa View Post
e.g I find hanging out with friends good for my mental health, so I do it. Selfish? Ok...maybe, but I put my own health above others, I don't believe in sacrificing my own health for some sort of abstract "greater good".
Sounds like a perfectly rational actor. Socialising lowers stress and boosts immune functioning via a number of biological mechanisms.

People might sacrifice this for a time as part of a social contract, but very few reasons for anyone to put the greater good ahead of their own health.
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Old 05-28-2020, 05:31 AM   #7065
GreenSmoke85
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Re: Coronavirus

Quote:
Originally Posted by rickroll View Post
i'm guessing there is some backstory here
Quote:
Originally Posted by Love Sosa View Post
Yeah, personally I would never wear a mask (they look kinda of gay), plus I am in peak physical condition and my immune system is in the top %1 of immune systems (mainly through eating a 100% carnivore diet and working out religiously), it is not possible for me to suffer any significant harm from the virus. I also don't need to go grocery shopping since I'm already stocked, I go out twice a day to workout and get exercise, everything is distanced. I'd say maybe 7-10% of people in my city are wearing them, and about 50% in chinatown.
back story. meat eating alpha needs socializing to not be sad. BETAAAA
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Old 05-28-2020, 05:41 AM   #7066
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Re: Coronavirus

Quote:
Originally Posted by adios View Post
Heat and humidity basically.

Current CDC COVID-19 Estimates

Fatality Rates

0-49 years old: .05%
50-64 years old: .2%
65+ years old: 1.3%
Overall ages: .4%

Asymptomatic 35%

@bbfg - to imply that there is no cost in human life due to lockdowns is crap. It is hard to quantify for sure but it exists. To what degree is unknown and you sure as hell don’t know.
Quote:
Originally Posted by O.A.F.K.1.1 View Post
Lockdown will also indirectly lead to a lot of lives saved, via reduced traffic accidents etc ( a big contributor to death counts under normal conditions), less social drunkenness and violent crime etc.

To immediately assume lockdown has a significant cost in human life is crap.

I would imagine it would not be that hard to massively reduce incidental deaths from Lockdown with correct planning.
Goal post shift ftw.
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Old 05-28-2020, 06:40 AM   #7067
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Re: Coronavirus

Quote:
Originally Posted by Elrazor View Post
Sounds like a perfectly rational actor. Socialising lowers stress and boosts immune functioning via a number of biological mechanisms.

People might sacrifice this for a time as part of a social contract, but very few reasons for anyone to put the greater good ahead of their own health.
There are now bots who sound less autistic.
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Old 05-28-2020, 06:53 AM   #7068
Elrazor
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Re: Coronavirus

Quote:
Originally Posted by chytry View Post
There are now bots who sound less autistic.
Trolls too, apparently.
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Old 05-28-2020, 07:01 AM   #7069
FallawayJumper
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Re: Coronavirus

....................

CA Indian casinos open defying Governor

some

they are asserting their sovereignty - their right as they see it to make a decision without state governmental approval



https://www.nytimes.com/2020/05/28/u...gtype=Homepage
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Old 05-28-2020, 07:34 AM   #7070
ToothSayer
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Re: Coronavirus

Quote:
Originally Posted by adios View Post
Heat and humidity basically.

Current CDC COVID-19 Estimates

Fatality Rates

0-49 years old: .05%
50-64 years old: .2%
65+ years old: 1.3%
Overall ages: .4%

Asymptomatic 35%
0.4% seems ridiculous for "symptomatic case fatality ratio". All the data points to 3x that. I assume there are just (broken) model estimates pre large amounts of antibody data showing >1% IFR? The page says:

Quote:
Parameter values are based on data received by CDC prior to 4/29/2020
So I assume it's simply awful model estimates, a full month out of date before the antibody data rolled in and settled the question at >1.3% symptomatic death rate (>1% IFR). The experts got it wrong again. Shocker.

Quote:
@bbfg - to imply that there is no cost in human life due to lockdowns is crap. It is hard to quantify for sure but it exists. To what degree is unknown and you sure as hell don’t know.
There's definitely a large cost, major recessions are bad for life and health. And that's without counting the ripple disruption effect of two months lockdown on life planning and outcomes, or the 5+ weeks x 3 billion people spend forcibly indoors = 300 million person-years lived suboptimally = 4 million person-lives live suboptimally.

Still, I'm not sure there was a choice. Antibody data from France shows 4.4% of the population had it while hospitals strained to capacity after lockdown. 5% of Spain. Etc. Without lockdown the death toll would have been insane as the hospitals got too full and people started dying in the streets Wuhan style as the >6% needing hospitalization can't get it.

So yeah, lockdown sucks but the alternative was 10x worse. And Shuffle is right, quarantine is as old as mankind and we survived just fine. It was the norm for hundreds of years in 30-60% death rate "black death" periods, for smallpox (30% death rate), etc.
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Old 05-28-2020, 07:57 AM   #7071
Borish Johnson
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Re: Coronavirus

Quote:
Originally Posted by bruce@lfb View Post
I am not taking it.
you didn't caveat it in any way, just flat out not taking it. Care to explain why?
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Old 05-28-2020, 08:23 AM   #7072
ToothSayer
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Re: Coronavirus

I certainly wouldn't take the Moderna one, even though Fauci loves it. I don't want my cells hacked by unproven technology. It might take many years to know if it's safe/has long term effects hacking mRNA. I'd take any other one though.
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Old 05-28-2020, 09:26 AM   #7073
Kelhus100
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Re: Coronavirus

Quote:
Originally Posted by ToothSayer View Post
. And Shuffle is right, quarantine is as old as mankind and we survived just fine. It was the norm for hundreds of years in 30-60% death rate "black death" periods, for smallpox (30% death rate), etc.
On this topic I have been binging some Roman history stuff (documentary and historical fiction) on Netflix et al., and it is funny because it seems every other episode mentions one plague or another sweeping through Rome.

When you watch English history period piece stuff pretty much the same thing.

This seems to be analogous to poker where you make the mistake of assuming that your EV when you are on a heater is your long term EV.
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Old 05-28-2020, 09:58 AM   #7074
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Re: Coronavirus

Yep, plagues happened and devastated populations, usually before they were known as plagues (or what their source was). They were then controlled by quarantines once the sources were better understood. I think one of the major contributing reasons we didn't have iPhones and sex robots in medieval Europe was probably infectious diseases.

The logic is as simple as I laid it out in February: The IFR and more importantly hospitalization rates are high enough that you either you lock down or millions die needlessly. The latter is unacceptable in Western countries so we do the former. That people will see 100K dead (bought by intense lockdowns) and say "see! you were wrong! we didn't need to lock down" is as dumb as it is human nature to be that dumb.
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Old 05-28-2020, 10:02 AM   #7075
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Re: Coronavirus

Isolation, testing, contact tracing, and social distancing have been shown to work. Total lockdowns' record is way spottier. Even during ancient times with much less robust transportation networks, lockdowns didn't do much except in the very short terms.

Experts pointed this out from very early on.

The problem is we (US and much of Western Europe) didn't do the stuff that works.
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