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Old Yesterday, 04:04 PM   #7026
Love Sosa
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Re: Coronavirus

Quote:
Originally Posted by Onlydo2days View Post
I think this is the weekend that social distancing got kicked to the curb in the US
Quote:
Originally Posted by revots33 View Post
After seeing the footage of selfish morons partying it up across America, packed in like sardines, I'm thinking much of the rest of the country is probably where NYC was in mid-March. People do not understand the concepts of incubation period or exponential growth. This will be a s***show across America within about 45 days.

Whoever made that +200k dead wager will be collecting by Sep 1. Probably over 500k by the new year. Americans are just too selfish, too fat, too stupid.
I think you are being a little harsh on Americans. There is definitely lockdown fatigue going on in a lot places, I'm seeing it first hand in Canada. We are social beings, we're not wired to endure long periods of lockdowns and distancing, that's not something unique to Americans IMO. We don't need to pack into arenas but small gatherings should be fine.

I will say though, the surefire method to get americans to do something is to tell them not to do it.

e.g I find hanging out with friends good for my mental health, so I do it. Selfish? Ok...maybe, but I put my own health above others, I don't believe in sacrificing my own health for some sort of abstract "greater good".
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Old Yesterday, 05:23 PM   #7027
PuttingInTheGrind
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Re: Coronavirus

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Originally Posted by 5 south View Post
Let's pack it in boys. Tooth, fantastic work here but let's lock up the thread, not much more to see here, gonna be like magic and just disappear any day now.
I mean how can you refute this?
Stupid experts wasting billions of dollars trying to find a vaccine for something that's not even going to exist pretty soon.
Damn I feel so much better. When can the buffets open again?

Japans PM told his nation on Monday that they have effectively beaten the coronavirus. He has lifted the state of emergency and this is dispite of a strict lockdown.

Trying to create a vaccine was the natural way of thinking when this virus first came out. We can now see the pattern though. Cases are drastically falling and as i said before, exponential growth does not last.

Former WHO chief even acknowledged this now and said it could burn out before a vaccine is developed.

Public health agency in Denmark says it will burn out 'even if lockdown is eased'.

Many others are saying it too.

No doubt this is a nasty new virus, but it has been the biggest overreaction in history....with some even believing it will be the end of humanity....LOL!
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Old Yesterday, 07:05 PM   #7028
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Re: Coronavirus

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Originally Posted by PuttingInTheGrind View Post
Japans PM told his nation on Monday that they have effectively beaten the coronavirus. He has lifted the state of emergency and this is dispite of a strict lockdown.
Their case count trends look good, they are doing well. If your goal is to hold up an Asian country that has been thru a pandemic before as an example of the virus 'burning out' before a vaccine is created because their citizens can be smart, you are correct, that plus govt controls (travel, quarantines) seem to be able to beat it.

Quote:
Trying to create a vaccine was the natural way of thinking when this virus first came out. We can now see the pattern though. Cases are drastically falling and as i said before, exponential growth does not last.
Exponential growth absolutely lasts when a) the virus is highly contagious b) enough people stop implementing personal measures to stop the spread c) there are truckloads of asymptomatic people walking around d) the most out there estimates are that it's gone thru 10, 20% of most countries (and that's generous for some countries). I am not saying that will happen, I am saying it's silly to think it is not possible to continue if enough people just say f it I'm tired of doing extremely simple things.

Quote:
Former WHO chief even acknowledged this now and said it could burn out before a vaccine is developed.
Vaccines generally take many, many years to get on the market en masse. So again if these promising early results falter in later trials and a vaccine become years away, combined with an end to preventative measures from enough people, it will burn out because it will burn thru hundreds of thousands until a horrific form of herd immunity is achieved (we are so far from that in almost every country it's not worth discussing)


Quote:
No doubt this is a nasty new virus, but it has been the biggest overreaction in history....with some even believing it will be the end of humanity....LOL!
You can minimize it to fit your view all you want. The facts that it's 6 months old, started in one of the (if not the) worst countries it could have from an information sharing/suppression/misinformation standpoint (i.e. impossible to know with certainty how bad it actually was), laid waste to Italy/other countries early (and currently is to many) GREATLY supports the view to shut **** down, figure out what this is with the advantage of time. It's a 100 year event and it has obviously caused a lot of collateral damage but can you WAIT A SECOND before you pass judgement like this? We can't really know this anytime soon, not until it's much better understood in my opinion. You could well be right, we just cannot say yet.
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Old Yesterday, 07:34 PM   #7029
O.A.F.K.1.1
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Re: Coronavirus

Best example of someone not understanding the prevention paradox I have seen.

PITG. Do a simple exercise.

Multiply 10 by 0.9 ten times.

Now multiply by 1.2 ten times.

See what happens when you put in measures to reduce the r?

You have to be living in a complete alternate universe to think that exponential growth went away all on its own.
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Old Yesterday, 07:54 PM   #7030
PuttingInTheGrind
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Re: Coronavirus

The Nobel laureate Michael Levitt (a British-American-Israeli) made some good points on this.

The lockdown quite possibly could have cost even more lives than not having one (I personally am not sure on this). Other precautions such as making people wear masks and social distancing might possibly be more effective at saving total number of lives.

Levitt has analyzed plenty of data of 78 nations and belives his investigations proves that the virus was never going to grow exponentially. You actually see from the first case in China that any exponential growth slows down dramatically.

Look at the predicted deaths from people who were saying that maybe millions in the UK for example will die. Epidemiologists will then like to claim success when say only 40k and claim it is due to the lockdown. We are not seeing even hundreds of thousands dying in places like Sweden.

The same happened with Ebola and bird flu.
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Old Yesterday, 08:43 PM   #7031
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Re: Coronavirus

Quote:
Originally Posted by PuttingInTheGrind View Post
The same happened with Ebola and bird flu.
Deaths in the USA from:
COVID: > 100,000
Ebola: 2
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Old Yesterday, 08:55 PM   #7032
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Re: Coronavirus

Just read this on reddit, thought I would share.

"I just ran the numbers for Florida with some of the links to the CDC data above. According to the CDC we've had 1,762 deaths from Covid and 5,185 from Pneumonia.

And if you average take the average number of Pneumonia deaths that occurred from Jan to March from 2013 to 2018, you get 1,210. That's insane.

edit: at some point it was easy to see the links to the data in a comment I replied to - but this blew up, so here it is:

https://wonder.cdc.gov/ucd-icd10.html - data for prior years

https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/nvss/vsrr/covid19/index.htm - current data

Also - that 5,185 might need to be reduced by 926 to account for double counting cases with Covid & Pneumonia, but also, my average was overstated because i was including January when CDC only includes Feb-May (FL average drops to 918)"

Here's the link to the thread: https://old.reddit.com/r/Coronavirus...a_deaths_than/

It'll be really interesting in 2-3 years to see how much lying/distortion/cover up there was in 2020 due to the election/economy damage fears etc. Governments lying during a pandemic is pretty common, I mean it's called the Spanish Flu for a reason (the Spanish flu originated in America but only Spain would talk about the issue due to most governments censoring/covering things up because WW1 was going on)
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Old Yesterday, 09:06 PM   #7033
RikaKazak
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Re: Coronavirus

Covid deaths are being MASSIVELY under reported imo:

Indiana: 1,832 COVID-19 deaths; 2,149 pneumonia deaths (five-year average: 384 pneumonia deaths)

Illinois: 4,856 COVID-19 deaths; 3,986 pneumonia deaths (five-year average: 782 pneumonia deaths)

Tennessee: 336 COVID-19 deaths; 1,704 pneumonia deaths (five-year average: 611 pneumonia deaths)

Ohio: 1,969 COVID-19 deaths; 2,327 pneumonia deaths (five-year average: 820 pneumonia deaths)

Virginia: 1,208 COVID-19 deaths; 1,394 pneumonia deaths (five-year average: 451 pneumonia deaths)

West Virginia: 72 COVID-19 deaths; 438 pneumonia deaths (five-year average: 117 pneumonia deaths)


Summary: States are saying pneumonia is killing people and not covid so they can say, "look, we don't have a covid problem"......lying *******s.
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Old Yesterday, 09:44 PM   #7034
PatraTheCat
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Re: Coronavirus

Definitely worth investigating imo.

Wonder how much we can trust the falling case numbers as the states are opened up. There must be massive incentives to show it's under control. On the other hand, perhaps this would be so disastrous if it got out that they wouldn't try.
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Old Yesterday, 10:42 PM   #7035
jh12547
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Coronavirus

Quote:
Originally Posted by RikaKazak View Post
Covid deaths are being MASSIVELY under reported imo:

Indiana: 1,832 COVID-19 deaths; 2,149 pneumonia deaths (five-year average: 384 pneumonia deaths)

Illinois: 4,856 COVID-19 deaths; 3,986 pneumonia deaths (five-year average: 782 pneumonia deaths)

Tennessee: 336 COVID-19 deaths; 1,704 pneumonia deaths (five-year average: 611 pneumonia deaths)

Ohio: 1,969 COVID-19 deaths; 2,327 pneumonia deaths (five-year average: 820 pneumonia deaths)

Virginia: 1,208 COVID-19 deaths; 1,394 pneumonia deaths (five-year average: 451 pneumonia deaths)

West Virginia: 72 COVID-19 deaths; 438 pneumonia deaths (five-year average: 117 pneumonia deaths)


Summary: States are saying pneumonia is killing people and not covid so they can say, "look, we don't have a covid problem"......lying *******s.

Are the pneumonia deaths they are reporting from only 2020? And are the five year averages based on the full year? I was having a discussion with a friend and Iíd like to show him this. Link please if you donít mind

Last edited by jh12547; Yesterday at 10:47 PM.
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Old Yesterday, 10:43 PM   #7036
adios
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Re: Coronavirus

Quote:
Originally Posted by revots33 View Post
After seeing the footage of selfish morons partying it up across America, packed in like sardines, I'm thinking much of the rest of the country is probably where NYC was in mid-March. People do not understand the concepts of incubation period or exponential growth. This will be a s***show across America within about 45 days.

Whoever made that +200k dead wager will be collecting by Sep 1. Probably over 500k by the new year. Americans are just too selfish, too fat, too stupid.
Politifact On USA COVID-19
Quote:
Across the United States, about 79% of coronavirus deaths have been people 65 years and older, according to the National Center for Health Statistics data submitted between the beginning of February to the beginning of May.
Pretty much a given that people 65 and over by far are at the greatest risk of dying. Also nursing home deaths are a substantial portion of the death toll. Didn’t see too many elderly people on those beaches and given they know the risks they’ll be cautious. Also apparently it is more of an indoor disease than outdoor. We’ll see how its works out.
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Old Yesterday, 11:15 PM   #7037
Shuffle
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Re: Coronavirus

Starting to see more evidence of chronic infection like HIV. I know sailors on the U.S.S. Roosevelt tested positive again after they recovered and were quarantined. There was also this research from China:

https://www.biorxiv.org/content/10.1...05.24.111823v1

Could this be a disease where anyone infected has to receive treatment for the rest of their life?
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Old Today, 12:19 AM   #7038
access denied
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Re: Coronavirus

Quote:
Originally Posted by RikaKazak View Post
Covid deaths are being MASSIVELY under reported imo:

Indiana: 1,832 COVID-19 deaths; 2,149 pneumonia deaths (five-year average: 384 pneumonia deaths)

Illinois: 4,856 COVID-19 deaths; 3,986 pneumonia deaths (five-year average: 782 pneumonia deaths)

Tennessee: 336 COVID-19 deaths; 1,704 pneumonia deaths (five-year average: 611 pneumonia deaths)

Ohio: 1,969 COVID-19 deaths; 2,327 pneumonia deaths (five-year average: 820 pneumonia deaths)

Virginia: 1,208 COVID-19 deaths; 1,394 pneumonia deaths (five-year average: 451 pneumonia deaths)

West Virginia: 72 COVID-19 deaths; 438 pneumonia deaths (five-year average: 117 pneumonia deaths)


Summary: States are saying pneumonia is killing people and not covid so they can say, "look, we don't have a covid problem"......lying *******s.
Covid oftentimes will cause severe pneumonia, so I can see it as an easy, if somewhat disingenuous mistake/distortion to make to say the cause of death was pneumonia because it was, even though that in turn was caused by Covid.
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Old Today, 01:05 AM   #7039
apology7
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Re: Coronavirus

with regard to covid "burning out" - what happens during a typical flu season? we know that the flu comes in waves during cold months and it then mostly goes away. does anyone know why?
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Old Today, 01:32 AM   #7040
CharlieDontSurf
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Re: Coronavirus

Quote:
Originally Posted by RikaKazak View Post
Covid deaths are being MASSIVELY under reported imo:

Indiana: 1,832 COVID-19 deaths; 2,149 pneumonia deaths (five-year average: 384 pneumonia deaths)

Illinois: 4,856 COVID-19 deaths; 3,986 pneumonia deaths (five-year average: 782 pneumonia deaths)

Tennessee: 336 COVID-19 deaths; 1,704 pneumonia deaths (five-year average: 611 pneumonia deaths)

Ohio: 1,969 COVID-19 deaths; 2,327 pneumonia deaths (five-year average: 820 pneumonia deaths)

Virginia: 1,208 COVID-19 deaths; 1,394 pneumonia deaths (five-year average: 451 pneumonia deaths)

West Virginia: 72 COVID-19 deaths; 438 pneumonia deaths (five-year average: 117 pneumonia deaths)


Summary: States are saying pneumonia is killing people and not covid so they can say, "look, we don't have a covid problem"......lying *******s.
where did u get the pneumonia death stats from?
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Old Today, 03:56 AM   #7041
bbfg
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Re: Coronavirus

Quote:
Originally Posted by PuttingInTheGrind View Post
The Nobel laureate Michael Levitt (a British-American-Israeli) made some good points on this.

The lockdown quite possibly could have cost even more lives than not having one (I personally am not sure on this). Other precautions such as making people wear masks and social distancing might possibly be more effective at saving total number of lives.

Levitt has analyzed plenty of data of 78 nations and belives his investigations proves that the virus was never going to grow exponentially. You actually see from the first case in China that any exponential growth slows down dramatically.

Look at the predicted deaths from people who were saying that maybe millions in the UK for example will die. Epidemiologists will then like to claim success when say only 40k and claim it is due to the lockdown. We are not seeing even hundreds of thousands dying in places like Sweden.

The same happened with Ebola and bird flu.
Oh come on, are people still spouting this crap?

1/ Chinese data is obviously fake. We cannot yield any conclusions from it. Or do you believe Wuhan got hit by something new, and was able to get a fraction of the deaths of regions like NY, Lombardy, Madrid?

2/ CV officially killed 350k while pretty much the whole world stayed the **** inside. Real death count is probably at least 2X that and before this wave is over we'll probably be over 600k official. Where is the proof of all these lockdown deaths? Can you point to some?

3/ Maybe people wearing masks & social distancing was enough, but maybe wasn't enough for where the world was at. We needed a "this is our best shot of stopping this thing"-reaction and that is what most of the world went for. And it was necessary. The large or wealthy economies can take it. Do you know many people who lost their jobs who don't work in a sector that would've gotten ****ed by CV regardless of lockdown or not?

4/ The million deaths was the herd immunity strategy. Sweden is not close to herd immunity and is doing 5-10x as bad as its peers. We'll also see where this puts Sweden going forward compared to the rest of EU. It is not even close to being guaranteed that Sweden followed the best economical strategy. Sweden had the luxury of various advantages (less initial spread from Italy, lower population density, first measures implemented when the infection was not that bad yet,...) which got it where it is today. Which is not ****ing good at all.
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Old Today, 04:26 AM   #7042
adios
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Re: Coronavirus

Quote:
Originally Posted by apology7 View Post
with regard to covid "burning out" - what happens during a typical flu season? we know that the flu comes in waves during cold months and it then mostly goes away. does anyone know why?
Heat and humidity basically.

Current CDC COVID-19 Estimates

Fatality Rates

0-49 years old: .05%
50-64 years old: .2%
65+ years old: 1.3%
Overall ages: .4%

Asymptomatic 35%

@bbfg - to imply that there is no cost in human life due to lockdowns is crap. It is hard to quantify for sure but it exists. To what degree is unknown and you sure as hell don’t know.

Last edited by adios; Today at 04:37 AM.
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