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Old 05-22-2020, 04:18 AM   #6951
somigosaden
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Re: Coronavirus

Quote:
Originally Posted by ToothSayer View Post
Yeah man, 1800 people infected in a young country - most of them healthy travelers before it was nipped in the bud - disprove >200,000 data points.
I didn't say the Iceland data disproved any other data. I didn't argue the IFR was 0.5% anywhere other than Iceland. I was responding to Kelhus who brought up Iceland, and I said that the Iceland data counts. If you want to weight it in your IFR calcs as 1,800/200,000, fine, but it isn't 0/200,000. And my point to Kelhus was that it's not a sample indicative of young travelers. The median age of those infect is 42. That's a higher median age than the US population. If you want to say that the Iceland data is inapplicable to the US or to France (whose median age is 41.4) because Iceland just got lucky with healthy infectees, or a low obesity rate, or that a diet of puffins and a culture of powerlifting lowers IFR, fair enough. But the young traveler theory doesn't match with a median infectee age of 42.

And I only mentioned Iceland in response to Kelhus. I think it's a very small data point, as I've said before.


Quote:
the data is completely overwhelming that the IFR is greater than 1%. It's amazing to see people argue it, actually.
Most of my post was conveying that IFR is variable not just across populations but across time. For some reason people seem to intuit this for R0, but obsess over a few percentage points for IFR. The IFR in San Francisco is lower than it is in New Orleans (people are healthier and hospitals are better). And the IFR in both places is lower now than it was two months ago (because treatment has improved).
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Old 05-22-2020, 05:03 AM   #6952
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Re: Coronavirus

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Originally Posted by despacito View Post
Approximately 1.5%?

England (approximate):
36,000,000 people
5% infected = 1,800,000 people
27,000 deaths
IFR = 1.5%

Assuming the antibody tests accurately represent actual infections.
population is closer to 55 million
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Old 05-22-2020, 05:10 AM   #6953
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Re: Coronavirus

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Originally Posted by chytry View Post
I'll reiterate my prediction that we will find that hot spots will have about 15% of population exposed and other areas under 5% after the first wave peaks.
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Old 05-22-2020, 05:42 AM   #6954
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Re: Coronavirus

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Originally Posted by pontylad View Post
population is closer to 55 million
Glaring error. Thanks.

Population of England: 55 million people
5% infected = 2.75 million people (according to UK Health Secretary)
27,000 deaths
IFR = 0.98%

(not confident the # of deaths is right or up to date)
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Old 05-22-2020, 07:28 AM   #6955
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Re: Coronavirus

We have had a care home nightmare in the UK and its the UK, home of the omnishambles.

We will trend higher than international averages on IFR, well at least against other developed countries.
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Old 05-22-2020, 07:42 AM   #6956
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Re: Coronavirus

Not just care homes, 10%+ of the deaths are people who caught it in hospital. They will have also have a higher IFR than the general population.
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Old 05-22-2020, 08:35 AM   #6957
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Re: Coronavirus

Regarding Moderna, Fauci - a vaccine expert if there ever was one - has exactly the same take as me:
Quote:
'Although the numbers were limited, it was quite good news because it reached and went over an important hurdle in the development of vaccines. That's the reason why I'm cautiously optimistic about it."
That's the reason the line moved from 70% to 90% on all vaccine candidates on this Moderna news: because it crosses an important hurdle of proving a reliable human immune response without major side effects. It's not about Moderna, it's the proof of concept that matters.

How are self-claimed experts in this thread getting it wrong while I (a self proclaimed "know jack **** about vaccines") am getting it right? Just amazing.

Last edited by ToothSayer; 05-22-2020 at 08:56 AM.
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Old 05-22-2020, 08:48 AM   #6958
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Re: Coronavirus

Quote:
Originally Posted by ToothSayer View Post
Regarding Moderna, Fauci - a vaccine expert if there ever was one - has exactly the same take as me:

That's the reason the line moved from 70% to 90% on all vaccine candidates on this Moderna news: because it crosses an important hurdle of proving a reliable human immune response.

How are self-claimed experts in this thread getting it wrong while I (a self proclaimed "know jack **** about vaccines") are getting it right? Just amazing.
Cautiously optimistic (Fauci) and 90% of the way to a vaccine (you) are not the same thing.

I'm not an expert - but I did ask two experts and they both said your take was way off.

EDIT: your earlier post says Moderna specifically was 90% of the way there. Now you're dialing back to ALL vaccine candidates.

Quote:
Originally Posted by ToothSayer View Post
It's the proof of efficacy that matters. The immune response they claim they're detecting is almost there for a vaccine. A solid proof of conept is 90% of the work. The only question is fraud. If the results are real then we have a widespread vaccine before winter, which is huge and blunts a lot of the worst case.

Yeah that definitely ups the odds that this is fraud. And the secondary timing is ridiculous. What odds would give that this is fraud?

Last edited by despacito; 05-22-2020 at 09:08 AM.
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Old 05-22-2020, 09:04 AM   #6959
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Re: Coronavirus

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Originally Posted by chezlaw View Post
Not just care homes, 10%+ of the deaths are people who caught it in hospital. They will have also have a higher IFR than the general population.
In addition to the UK government, the NHS will have some tough questions to answer at the end of this.
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Old 05-22-2020, 09:17 AM   #6960
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Re: Coronavirus

Quote:
Originally Posted by ToothSayer View Post
That's the reason the line moved from 70% to 90% on all vaccine candidates on this Moderna news: because it crosses an important hurdle of proving a reliable human immune response without major side effects. It's not about Moderna, it's the proof of concept that matters.
The proof of concept is for their RNA platform only.

Last edited by chytry; 05-22-2020 at 09:29 AM.
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Old 05-22-2020, 09:37 AM   #6961
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Re: Coronavirus

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Originally Posted by despacito View Post
Cautiously optimistic (Fauci) and 90% of the way to a vaccine (you) are not the same thing.
Fauci clearly doesn't think 90%, but I wasn't quoting him for that, and others do. Pre Moderna data, The Oxford group lead (a vaccine expert if there ever was one) thinks 80% chance of their own single vaccine proven working by September and in production. If we assume she's not lying/crazy with 80% for a single specific vaccine proven and well into production by September, then 90% for all 100+ vaccine candidates by November is standard.

Quote:
I'm not an expert - but I did ask two experts and they both said your take was way off.
Do these experts also believe the head of the Oxford Group is way off? Experts are slow and cautious and only good for analyzing stuff that fits into previous molds of accepted belief and outcomes. There are 100+ groups being funded billions of dollars working on this, there are solid proofs of efficacy/low side effects in related vaccines (MERS), and now we have the full stack of proof for this one (monkey prevention of infection, reliable human antibody creation with apparent low side effects).
Quote:
EDIT: your earlier post says Moderna specifically was 90% of the way there. Now you're dialing back to ALL vaccine candidates.
The post doesn't say that at all. The evidence is stacking up that we can have a reliable, low side effects, antibody producing immune response from covid signature proteins. How they are delivered is irrelevant, one of 100+ ways will get there.
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Old 05-22-2020, 10:56 AM   #6962
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Re: Coronavirus

Quote:
Originally Posted by Elrazor View Post
In addition to the UK government, the NHS will have some tough questions to answer at the end of this.
The NHS has been fantastic. There's unanimity on this in the UK afaics.

Whether that will be enough in the on-coming economic and political turmoil remains to be seen.
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Old 05-22-2020, 11:14 AM   #6963
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Re: Coronavirus

It is pretty chef's kiss to see TS, who has constantly railed against trusting experts and against Fauci in particular, cite Fauci.
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Old 05-22-2020, 11:22 AM   #6964
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Re: Coronavirus

Quote:
Originally Posted by TooCuriousso1 View Post
‘How Could the CDC Make That Mistake?’
The government’s disease-fighting agency is conflating viral and antibody tests, compromising a few crucial metrics that governors depend on to reopen their economies. Pennsylvania, Georgia, Texas, and other states are doing the same.

https://twitter.com/alexismadrigal/s...688215552?s=20

https://amp.theatlantic.com/amp/article/611935/

This is a feature not a bug. Red states are really trying to twist, distort or simply hide data to justify WE'RE OPEN FOR BUSINESS. I'm surprised the CDC is going to muddle the data too, but it's hard to believe it's an accident in the current context.

If you didn't see Georgia's attempt to distort data by putting it out of chronological order to make it appear to slope downward, look it up. There's just no way it happened unintentionally.
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Old 05-22-2020, 11:27 AM   #6965
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Re: Coronavirus

Quote:
Originally Posted by m_reed05 View Post
It is pretty chef's kiss to see TS, who has constantly railed against trusting experts and against Fauci in particular, cite Fauci.
That's what I was thinking!

Although I had never heard of Chef's Kiss before, googled and lol'd. I'll use that now, ty
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Old 05-22-2020, 11:36 AM   #6966
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Re: Coronavirus

Using experts to refute people who love them and claim to be experts themselves is the real chef's kiss.

"90% by November is insane! You're such an idiot! I asked two experts and they think you're way off!" => I quote one of the world's leading virus experts saying 80% chance of success by September for just a single vaccine.

"I'm an expert, the Moderna data is a joke, you have no clue what you're talking about calling it important. You are so out of your depth" => I quote Fauci today calling it a big deal in exactly the same way I did

Total ownage.

Quote:
Originally Posted by m_reed05 View Post
This is a feature not a bug. Red states are really trying to twist, distort or simply hide data to justify WE'RE OPEN FOR BUSINESS. I'm surprised the CDC is going to muddle the data too, but it's hard to believe it's an accident in the current context.
There's no "too". The CDC (and deep state experts) first gave up this pandemic with their tragicomic incompetence by screwing up simple tests that even small countries and private labs with 1/100th of the US budget got right. Now they give us bogus data that a smart 3 year old could keep apart. Trying to link it to red states is cute and shows complete partisan irrationality. And no, this is straight up incompetence, nothing to do with red states:
Quote:
The inclusion of antibody data is one reason the CDC has reported hundreds of thousands more tests in Florida than the state government, agency spokesperson Kristen Nordlund told The Atlantic. The CDC hopes to separate the viral and antibody test results in the next few weeks, Ms. Nordlund said.
A few weeks to separate a bit of data - that's about the same time it took them to find out their flawed tests were flawed, an absolute joke that has cost 90,000 lives and counting. This is the highly competent deep state in action.

Last edited by ToothSayer; 05-22-2020 at 11:42 AM.
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Old 05-22-2020, 12:18 PM   #6967
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Re: Coronavirus

Quote:
Originally Posted by chezlaw View Post
The NHS has been fantastic. There's unanimity on this in the UK afaics.
Front line NHS has been fantastic, I agree. However, that does not preclude the possibility mistakes have been made in the management of patients, particularly those dispatched to care homes.
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Old 05-22-2020, 03:02 PM   #6968
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Re: Coronavirus

Quote:
Originally Posted by ToothSayer View Post
.

You said MODERNA is 90% of the way to producing a vaccine. I said no, MODERNA is not 90% that is way off. You clearly agree with me now too.
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Old 05-22-2020, 03:45 PM   #6969
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Re: Coronavirus

I had a close older relative pass away a few days ago (not Covid) but they did spend 10 days in a hospital with lots of Covid patients, granted in a different wing but entrances for all of the public are the same. No regrets but it was not lost on me those multiple, several hours each visits were my highest direct exposure potential since all this started in early March in the US and I began working from home.

Of course my wife does CV tests on people multiple times per week but she is in full PPE. At the hospital most people had on awful homemade masks barely covering their mouth and noses not at all. Saw one guy with a crochet mask, just wow. That's isn't stopping a golf ball much less micron particles
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Old 05-22-2020, 03:52 PM   #6970
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Re: Coronavirus

Quote:
Originally Posted by Borish Johnson View Post
I had a close older relative pass away a few days ago (not Covid) but they did spend 10 days in a hospital with lots of Covid patients, granted in a different wing but entrances for all of the public are the same. No regrets but it was not lost on me those multiple, several hours each visits were my highest direct exposure potential since all this started in early March in the US and I began working from home.

Of course my wife does CV tests on people multiple times per week but she is in full PPE. At the hospital most people had on awful homemade masks barely covering their mouth and noses not at all. Saw one guy with a crochet mask, just wow. That's isn't stopping a golf ball much less micron particles
My local hospital will not allow any visitors. This week I had to take my mother (93) to a doctors appointment at the hospital and could only drop her off and pick her up at the door. She herself had to be temperature checked at the door before entering. So at least here they are taking no chances letting anyone in who absolutely doesn't need to be there.
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Old 05-22-2020, 04:02 PM   #6971
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Re: Coronavirus

Study finds use of chloroquine or hydroxychloroquine with or without a macrolide is linked to increased rates of mortality and heart arrhythmias among hospital patients with COVID19:
https://twitter.com/TheLancet/status...09107175358465



Full study (haven't read yet):
https://www.thelancet.com/journals/l...180-6/fulltext

Birx commentary on it:

Last edited by despacito; 05-22-2020 at 04:12 PM.
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Old 05-22-2020, 06:00 PM   #6972
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Re: Coronavirus

Quote:
Originally Posted by m_reed05 View Post
If you didn't see Georgia's attempt to distort data by putting it out of chronological order to make it appear to slope downward, look it up. There's just no way it happened unintentionally.
Too good to miss: https://www.washingtonpost.com/opini...fter-thursday/
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Old 05-22-2020, 07:30 PM   #6973
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Re: Coronavirus

Quote:
Originally Posted by Elrazor View Post
Front line NHS has been fantastic, I agree. However, that does not preclude the possibility mistakes have been made in the management of patients, particularly those dispatched to care homes.
Fair point, Can't say I'm a huge fan of some of the management but in this case I'm not sure it wasn't primarily a government responsibility.

But no doubt some did a worse job. I did see that patients catching covid in hospital was particularity bad in one (unmentioned) trust. So yes some questions to answer.
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Old 05-22-2020, 07:47 PM   #6974
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Re: Coronavirus

Moderna's cfo pump n dump.
https://www.cnn.com/2020/05/22/inves...les/index.html
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Old 05-22-2020, 07:53 PM   #6975
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Re: Coronavirus

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Yeah this was always going to happen.
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