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Old 05-13-2020, 07:59 AM   #6626
Raised2Win
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Re: Coronavirus

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Originally Posted by ToothSayer View Post
You don't need a vaccine for eradication. You need the lockdowns that have already been done, done competently (contact tracing and isolation as the biggest thing), and we'd have all eradicated the virus already. The US for example would have zero virus right now if the experts hadn't comically screwed the pooch on the early testing ramp.

From Fauci's testimony, at the least the US will be moving in that direction now. The reason eradication hasn't happened for other infectious diseases before is because there were never global lockdowns.
0 ? are u crazy, no country has been at 0 after being at 1 (New zealand has new cases again, after days of not having.). There cant be a global lockdowns people have a right to come back to their home country and actually have a constitutional right to leave and come back in the western world. Do you think any western country is allowing their goverment to take over their freedome ? for example if u get sick u get sent to a special place to recover with rest of the sick, away from your family even if you have mild symptoms, thats not going to happen in west. So you are just talking fairytales.

Last edited by Raised2Win; 05-13-2020 at 08:05 AM.
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Old 05-13-2020, 08:19 AM   #6627
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Re: Coronavirus

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Originally Posted by Raised2Win View Post
0 ? are u crazy, no country has been at 0 after being at 1 (New zealand has new cases again, after days of not having.). There cant be a global lockdowns people have a right to come back to their home country and actually have a constitutional right to leave and come back in the western world. Do you think any western country is allowing their goverment to take over their freedome ? for example if u get sick u get sent to a special place to recover with rest of the sick, away from your family even if you have mild symptoms, thats not going to happen in west. So you are just talking fairytales.
I have little sympathy for your views because I've seen eradication work perfectly. I'm in a Western country full of freedom loving people that has reopened with no fear of corona any more because they had a non-retard eradication strategy (discussed plenty above, but mainly contact tracing and self isolation). I'm in a county of 400K people, near northern Italy (the hotspot in Europe that infected everywhere else), that has been infection free for 21 days because the experts setting the strategy weren't human trash like they are in the UK and the US. There are 20+ countries in a similar excellent situation.

None of this successful eradication involved taking people away from their families. Or locking the populace inside their houses, unable to leave. Enforced distancing outside and self isolation of infected and their contacts, mandated by large fines and prison, is plenty. It works great, and its impact decreases to near zero over time as eradication works. Currently there are a few thousand people in self isolation, compared to many millions living their lives freely, going to cafes and bars.

Plenty of countries will be at zero (excluding isolated incoming foreigners who don't count) and living their lives normally, while cuck defeatist countries have months of rolling lockdowns and full hospitals, fear, and inability to fully restart your economy, leading to continued and long lasting dire economic and social effects.

Last edited by ToothSayer; 05-13-2020 at 08:25 AM.
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Old 05-13-2020, 08:32 AM   #6628
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Re: Coronavirus

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There are very few experts worthy of mention. Sure, you can find an expert who will explain why the Tacoma Narrows Bridge collapsed, but where were the experts when the bridge was designed and constructed? 1983 Space Shuttle Challenger disaster was explained by experts, but estimates on chances of mission failure ranged from 1 in 2 million to 1 in 70. (another failure years later ruled out such optimistic projections) There are not many von Neumanns around who can give you the correct answer to problems that are not presented as "solve for x" bounded questions.
if you expect anyone to read your weirdo ideas going forward you shouldn't start with building strawmen like this
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Old 05-13-2020, 08:33 AM   #6629
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Re: Coronavirus

Your country is montenegro ? The country in europe that was the last one to get a case pretty much ? I dont claim its hard to get the cases to 0 when you have had very low case numbers, im saying its impossible to keep it at 0.

Oh wait its Malta, 506 confirmed cases. Great example of your strategy. Still getting new cases, what a surprise.

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Old 05-13-2020, 08:39 AM   #6630
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Re: Coronavirus

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Really nice of them to produce this pretty graph now, but where were these soothsayers in January?
this is what all of asia did... in january... guess how they are doing compared to the west right now?
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Old 05-13-2020, 08:52 AM   #6631
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Re: Coronavirus

The west has been exposed for the sham that it is. Take that exceptionalism and shove it
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Old 05-13-2020, 09:05 AM   #6632
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Re: Coronavirus

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Your country is montenegro ? The country in europe that was the last one to get a case pretty much ? I dont claim its hard to get the cases to 0 when you have had very low case numbers, im saying its impossible to keep it at 0.

Oh wait its Malta, 506 confirmed cases. Great example of your strategy. Still getting new cases, what a surprise.
Neither are anywhere near Northern Italy.

There are 20+ countries that have crushed this with a non-idiot strategy. They range from the largest country in the world to the smallest, from the first infected to the last infected. Claiming anything special about the countries that eradicated this is silly. It's all about the strategy and nothing else. Eradication is simple and straightforward.

The notion that eradiction is impossible since incoming travelers (tested in quarantine) add 10 a day to the case numbers is pretty ridiculous.

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The west has been exposed for the sham that it is. Take that exceptionalism and shove it
The West is definitely exceptional - there's a reason China has to steal all their tech rather than develop it indigenously - but it's certainly less exceptional since left wing thinking and defeatism has taken hold.
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Old 05-13-2020, 09:20 AM   #6633
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Re: Coronavirus

This sentiment that keeps being repeated in the U.S. that you somehow have to choose between saving lives and saving the economy is completely inaccurate, they are not mutually exclusive. Had America took the correct intelligent/rational/scientific approach earlier on, your economy would not have ever been shutdown, millions and millions of Americans would not have lost their jobs, and you also would not have over 80k + deaths as of now. This notion that this is an unprecedented event and we therefor don't know to handle this is completely inaccurate, you can save Americans from needlessly dying, and keep Americans at work at the exact same time, but unfortunately your country is ran by incompetent morons that have no idea what the hell they are doing, your elected officials are failing you. Everything that has occurred in the past few months was preventable, here is why it occurred.

A) Incompetent/moronic elected officials.

B) Americans have weak social cohesion

C) A populace of low intelligence

D) Lack of common sense

On March 15th, the U.S. and South Korea had the exact same amount of deaths, which was 75 at the time. South Korea currently only has 259 total deaths, the U.S. currently has 83K deaths in total, which is 300x more deaths, yet we at one period of time had the exact same amount of deaths. Not only this, they did this WITHOUT SHUTTING DOWN THEIR ECONOMY. So when your moronic elected officials tell you that nobody knows the correct strategy to handle this, this is somewhat true, your elected officials are morons that should be ran out of office by people that are actually competent and know what the hell they are doing. There is a scientific/rational approach to deal with a virus outbreak like this, it was obvious months ago what that answer/strategy was.
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Old 05-13-2020, 09:58 AM   #6634
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Re: Coronavirus

It was actually the government scientists and their expert overseers that screwed it up in the US. The US crushed South Korea's response to this early on, ramping testing and preparations, buying time by excluding Chinese. But their testing ramp got screwed up horribly by the experts/scientists, despite being a simple thing that no one else screwed up. A lot of things were to blame, among them Obama era pandemic procedure which shut out the private market, the incredibly incompetent decisions of Fauci and Birx not to parallelize test development, and the experts/scientists themselves who both screwed up the tests AND failed to catch it for weeks. With no tests it was not possible to mount South Korea's response, or any response really. Without testing data you're blind and the US response was dead in the water. It's that simple. The rest is horrible aftermath.
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Old 05-13-2020, 10:05 AM   #6635
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Re: Coronavirus

When I say "preventable", I don't mean zero deaths/zero economical damage. Of course your going to have some deaths and experience damage to your economy. My point is that comparatively speaking, deaths and economical damage could've have been drastically blunted compared to what has currently occurred in the U.S. Let me use a poker analogy, this is not a great analogy, but you guys should get my point. The united States has chased a 4 outer and called a pot size bet on the turn, this is a terrible play. Where as some of these other countries are playing poker more correct/efficiently, maybe not perfect, but they are at least making decent plays. In the most simple terms, the U.S. has historically made -EV plays, where some of these other countries that are having success have made plays that were more +EV, not only in the form of total deaths, but also in the form of economical damage.
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Old 05-13-2020, 10:24 AM   #6636
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Re: Coronavirus

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Herd immunity is only possible with a vaccine. That concept only exists thanks to vaccines.
I agree. "Herd immunity" seems like a misnomer. Kind of like "flatten the curve" is a misnomer for attempts at eradication through lockdown. What they're talking about is really just less stringent and less mandated social distancing that hopefully flattens the curve to make the outbreak manageable without eradicating it.

But I think the pragmatic calculus is just this:

Quote:
Lockdowns are simply not sustainable for the amount of time that it will likely take to develop a vaccine.

It should already be obvious, however, that the economic and social costs of lockdowns are enormous: estimates from the OECD suggest that every month of pandemic-related restrictions will shrink the economies of advanced countries by two percent. France, Germany, Italy, Spain, the United Kingdom, and the United States, according to the OECD, will see their economies shrink by more than 25 percent within a year.

Rather than declare a lockdown or a state of emergency, Sweden asked its citizens to practice social distancing on a mostly voluntary basis. Swedish authorities imposed some restrictions designed to flatten the curve: no public gatherings of more than 50 people, no bar service, distance learning in high schools and universities, and so on. But they eschewed harsh controls, fines, and policing. Swedes have changed their behavior, but not as profoundly as the citizens of other Western democracies.
That lockdowns are not politically sustainable in the US already seems pretty clear. There's also evidence that people started social distancing prior to official stay at home orders (and some, presumably, are continuing afterwards). I think it's clear that if you have the capacity to execute something like a "5 weeks to eradication" plan and succeed then this is obviously a superior plan. I think that we could have been much better prepared and should have followed a path like that much earlier. It's certainly hard to criticize the argument that this is/was the right idea.

But since it's also clear it's not happening here for a variety of reasons (some regulatory, some political, some cultural?) I think the other point of the article is probably true, regretfully or not:

Quote:
Whether or not they have openly embraced the Swedish approach, many other countries are now trying to emulate aspects of it. Both Denmark and Finland have reopened schools for young children. Germany is allowing small shops to reopen. Italy will soon reopen parks, and France has a plan to allow some nonessential businesses to reopen, including farmersí markets and small museums, as well as schools and daycare centers. In the United States, which has by far the highest absolute number of reported COVID-19 deaths, several states are easing restrictions at the urging of President Donald Trump, who despite bashing the Swedish model, is pushing the country toward something very similar.
So, mostly what I'm interested in is trying to guess just how bad the outcome of this will be, and to consider the possibility that more voluntary forms of social distancing will allow us to manage without realizing some of the more apocalyptic projections. TS is clearly correct that more people will die because of it in comparison to the perfect counterfactual response. I don't think it's trivial to weight that against the negative effects of a much longer lockdown in most of the US, but it also seems somewhat academic at this point.
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Old 05-13-2020, 10:25 AM   #6637
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Re: Coronavirus

It's not about total eradication - that's impossible.
It's about practical eradication. You detect small clusters quickly, quarantine and contact trace - see the recent South Korea outbreak.
To do this, certain physical distancing precautions need to remain in place.
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Old 05-13-2020, 10:28 AM   #6638
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Re: Coronavirus

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Originally Posted by rickroll View Post
this is what all of asia did... in january... guess how they are doing compared to the west right now?
You missed the point. Anyone with half a brain can see what the best strategy is in hindsight, but predicting it before the event is less easy. For example:

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yeah i thought china was being absurd shutting down essentially 1/5th of the world indefinitely over a flu and yet seeing what has happened to other countries who just went on like normal and it suddenly started making a whole lot more sense

Last edited by Elrazor; 05-13-2020 at 10:33 AM.
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Old 05-13-2020, 10:51 AM   #6639
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Re: Coronavirus

I think this forum has the best discussion of covid 19 on the internet. And TS and seedless are a big part of that. So give credit where it is due.

They being said, a couple months ago it seems you guys were arguing countries like the US and UK had no shot of containing coronavirus because they were low intelligence and had low social cohesion. And now it seems the argument it is the experts fault and apparently If they had been more responsible we could have crushed it? What happened to the social cohesion and intelligence part of the pessimistic outlook?
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Old 05-13-2020, 10:54 AM   #6640
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Re: Coronavirus

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You missed the point. Anyone with half a brain can see what the best strategy is in hindsight, but predicting it before the event is less easy. For example:
man how long did it take you to find that post

i'm not sure why the outsider opinion of someone who develops apps for a living is relevant

what is relevant is the people in charge of coordinating a response in asian countries unanimously reacted very aggressively and put it to end before it started

had the rest of the world done as taiwan/vietnam/korea did then this would have been a nothingburger and I would likely still be in the "zomg look at how we overreacted" camp

my point is my opinion is immaterial and pointing out that I personally was pretty firmly in the "just the flu" camp in the early days has literally nothing to do with your statement that nobody had that "eradicate it" mentality back in January, which is just not true as basically all of asia did exactly just that in january
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Old 05-13-2020, 11:11 AM   #6641
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Re: Coronavirus

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Originally Posted by ToothSayer View Post
It was actually the government scientists and their expert overseers that screwed it up in the US. The US crushed South Korea's response to this early on, ramping testing and preparations, buying time by excluding Chinese. But their testing ramp got screwed up horribly by the experts/scientists, despite being a simple thing that no one else screwed up. A lot of things were to blame, among them Obama era pandemic procedure which shut out the private market, the incredibly incompetent decisions of Fauci and Birx not to parallelize test development, and the experts/scientists themselves who both screwed up the tests AND failed to catch it for weeks. With no tests it was not possible to mount South Korea's response, or any response really. Without testing data you're blind and the US response was dead in the water. It's that simple. The rest is horrible aftermath.
I don't disagree that the experts were giving bad advice Tooth, I agree, let me use a theoretical scenario for you though. Imagine your a world renowned virologist, and let's say in this scenario your like a Fauci and your job is to educate the general public on how to deal with this virus so they can take an intelligent/rational approach of dealing with this virus, but here is what happens. You tooth want to tell the general public to wear masks back in February, but unfortunately, because of incompetency at the higher levels of government, masks were not stockpiled, what do you do? What ends up happening is you now have "experts" telling the GP that masks are not effective and that they should not be buying them up, but why are experts saying this? They are saying this because they think it is more important for doctors/nurses to have masks over the general public having masks, the "experts" were forced into a scenario where they had to lie to the public because of incompetency that may have not been there actual fault. Had masks been stockpiled, "experts" would have told the GP to probably wear masks, so in this scenario you have experts receiving the bad end of the stick for something that may have not been there fault.

Now don't get me wrong, I am not defending Fauci, Fauci and someone else at the CDC said community spread was unlikely occurring back in late February. There was no excuse for them to make this claim, it was highly likely exponential growth was occurring and was inevitable regardless. Also, I agree with you on the testing, not refuting that, they obviously screwed that up. This impacted our ability to contact trace and isolate, but we could have still been implementing viral avoidance behavior like you have brought up in earlier posts, of course avoidance behavior includes masks though.
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Old 05-13-2020, 11:17 AM   #6642
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Re: Coronavirus

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Originally Posted by chytry View Post
Herd immunity is only possible with a vaccine. That concept only exists thanks to vaccines.
I've heard (herd?) this said numerous times but I don't think it makes logical sense. If getting infected and recovering provides immunity, how would enough people getting infected not lead to herd immunity, just as enough people getting the vaccine would?
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Old 05-13-2020, 11:34 AM   #6643
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Re: Coronavirus

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man how long did it take you to find that post
Two mins. I searched oldest first and I think it's your first post itt.

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all of asia did exactly just that in January
Really? Check the numbers. I think you'll find more Asian countries that didn't test, track, trace in January than did. This is also probably true today.
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Old 05-13-2020, 11:44 AM   #6644
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Re: Coronavirus

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I think this forum has the best discussion of covid 19 on the internet. And TS and seedless are a big part of that. So give credit where it is due.

They being said, a couple months ago it seems you guys were arguing countries like the US and UK had no shot of containing coronavirus because they were low intelligence and had low social cohesion. And now it seems the argument it is the experts fault and apparently If they had been more responsible we could have crushed it? What happened to the social cohesion and intelligence part of the pessimistic outlook?
That was pre-shutdown - a discussion of how it's possible to control it without destroying the economy I believe and locking everyone at home. It's played out exactly like expected - the lower IQ and social responsibility demographics are massively over-represented in both infected and deaths. In some areas they're 75% of infections despite being 20-30% of the population.

It makes the job a lot harder but I outlined how it's achievable even without shutting everything down (but possibly not in the low iq/social responsibility populations). Once the US showed it was willing to do and maintain harsh lockdowns, eradication became easy.
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Old 05-13-2020, 12:16 PM   #6645
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Re: Coronavirus

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I've heard (herd?) this said numerous times but I don't think it makes logical sense. If getting infected and recovering provides immunity, how would enough people getting infected not lead to herd immunity, just as enough people getting the vaccine would?
IF getting infected and recovering provides immunity and IF there are no new strains that bypass it, it's theoretically possible at an enormous societal and economic cost.
But that kind of herd immunity would still be constantly challenged by newcomers (births and from abroad).
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Old 05-13-2020, 12:38 PM   #6646
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Re: Coronavirus

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Originally Posted by Elrazor View Post
Two mins. I searched oldest first and I think it's your first post itt.



Really? Check the numbers. I think you'll find more Asian countries that didn't test, track, trace in January than did. This is also probably true today.
dude you're just nitpicking semantics at this point

my point is that all of asia from the ladyboys to the nerds took this very seriously from the start and very successfully made it a nothing burger

sweden has a smaller population than just the city of wuhan china and will surpass all of china in deaths before the end of the month and will likely be far more

to argue that this is unforseen or that the disease running through society was inevitable is ridiculous and based off seeing the complete and utter incompetence in our own countries and neighbors and assuming that to be the norm because USA#1 so obviously we're doing it best

the entire continent of asia was freaking out, shutting down airports, ramping up testing capabilities and mask production and meanwhile we lol'd and watched our stock markets reach the all time high
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Old 05-13-2020, 12:50 PM   #6647
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Re: Coronavirus



Anyone been following these developments?
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Old 05-13-2020, 01:11 PM   #6648
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Re: Coronavirus

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Originally Posted by TooCuriousso1 View Post


Anyone been following these developments?
Getting a lot more coverage in local NYC news lately. Certainly a disturbing development, as children being essentially untouched by COVID was one of the only bright spots.

Still rare considering the number of kids who have likely been exposed to the virus, but it's odd that these cases are popping up now, when infections in NY are declining. Could it be an entirely new disease, or a delayed reaction to the virus?
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Old 05-13-2020, 01:45 PM   #6649
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Re: Coronavirus

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Originally Posted by rickroll View Post
to argue that this is unforseen or that the disease running through society was inevitable is ridiculous and based off seeing the complete and utter incompetence in our own countries and neighbors and assuming that to be the norm because USA#1 so obviously we're doing it best
Good job I have never.argued anything even remotely resembling this position then.
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Old 05-13-2020, 01:53 PM   #6650
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Re: Coronavirus

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Originally Posted by rickroll View Post
if you expect anyone to read your weirdo ideas going forward you shouldn't start with building strawmen like this
My "weirdo ideas" being what, exactly? That so-called "experts" do not price in massive crises in their planning? This has been widely known for years.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Black_swan_theory

Quote:
Unlike the earlier and broader "black swan problem" in philosophy (i.e. the problem of induction), Taleb's "black swan theory" refers only to unexpected events of large magnitude and consequence and their dominant role in history. Such events, considered extreme outliers, collectively play vastly larger roles than regular occurrences.[1]:xxi More technically, in the scientific monograph "Silent Risk",[2] Taleb mathematically defines the black swan problem as "stemming from the use of degenerate metaprobability".
In the case of CV one only had to look at Spanish flu in 1918 in the set of possible outcomes, that is a global pandemic of massive scale is certainly not beyond reason. But of course 100 years ago is ancient history in the context of scientific achievements, correct?

If Spanish flu happened at similar scale 20 years ago do you really think the "experts" would have reacted the same to CV as they did 4 months ago?
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