People act before they are told to and will not 'reopen' when they are told to

Uhoh

Sidenote, since normals refuse to go back, the news is now propagandizing how special needs workers are stepping in.is this thinly veiled Shaming to motivate workers back or just how sick society really is? Exploiting downs because they do not know any better?

I've seen that graph before but it certainly overstates the level or rate of behavioral change that happened.

Restaurants in most(all?) states weren't ordered closed until the monday after all the sports shut down, which was on a thursday if my memory is correct. Reservations tanked and cancellations soared that weekend. Yeah some people saw the news and changed their behavior but that 'awareness' or whatever didn't translate to bars and people congregating to get ****-faced because of covid panic/st. patricks day weekend/spring break.

Zero without a vaccine however they will likely ratchet up the #s (no more than 50, no more than 100, no more than 500, etc.). That's essentially how they ratcheted them down. It makes little sense because with something this contagious, so widespread, and that can be spread by asymptomatic people, how is 50 so much better than 500?

I think a much better hope is reliable antibody tests + proof that antibodies confer immunity. That would allow the "immunity certificate" scenario where some people could go to ballgames etc.

Sounds plausible ... would be interesting to see these stats by age brackets.

McLovin immunity certificates imminent in that scenario

A gathering of 50 people being no different from 500 is... an interesting take

He's right in a way.
If you're looking at worst case scenarios, the result is same: everyone getting infected.

Well obviously. If everyone is getting infected, then do whatever the **** you want. There are countless scenarios where everyone does not get infected and it's a silly take.

I'm rather skeptical of this. The data is of such poor quality. And there is a vast disparity between states in testing capacity. If large-scale spread occurs before there's enough tests, then this is bound to happen.

I'm in one of these locations. My pregnant wife couldn't get a test 2-3 weeks ago when we all experienced mild symptoms despite the fact her OB wanted her to get a test. And news broke a few days ago about how testing will be much more widespread now. So guess what? Official cases will go up and Dataminr, who did the study, will give themselves a big pat on the back.

Iceland has been stuck on 10 COVID deaths for a long time, and I doubt they are missing any. And they are down to 117 active cases with no serious, critical. At this point it seems likely they end up with under 1% IFR. It will be interesting to see their data broken down into age categories, and see how consistent it is with other nation's data.

Iceland isn’t in lockdown either. Nor is South Korea, Taiwan, or (most of) Japan.

The evidence that lockdowns only delay the spread but not prevent it is mounting.

End game continues to be herd immunity. We can delay it, and undoubtedly delay but not prevent most of eventual Covid-19 casualties with ever stricter lockdowns. But that comes at the cost of, to say nothing of economic and social costs, of lives lost due to medical care deferred.

We didn’t heed the lessons of the Ebola, SARS, MERS, Avian fly, and Swine flu dry runs. To be frank, even Covid-19 is on the milder end of possible pandemics. Imagine a virus with avian flu like deadliness, covid-19 like ability to spread from asymptomatic people with long incubation period, and measles/small pox like contagiousness. That would be a culling.

Hopefully this time we will take the lessons to heart. Shame we will lose hundreds of thousands of lives, possibly millions, and suffer economic misery few alive has witnessed to carve the necessary lessons into our collective consciousness.

Iceland is an island. If they can get their new cases down to 0 (they seem to be close if not there already) and quarantine/test anyone coming in And contact trace any new cases that pop up, no reason they couldn’t have a “normal” society with no Covid with no herd immunity.

If people want proof of “immunity” in the sense of 0% (or something close) probability to contract the disease, that’s probably not coming. Same thing with totally reliable antibodies tests.

And we don’t need them for the purposes of establishing herd immunity and lowering R and infection rates to manageable levels.

Ultimately I think it will be a collective negotiation with ourselves on what levels of death are acceptable for a return to varying degrees of normalcy. That means giving up some things that we end up deciding to be not important after all and just accepting the risks of infection to, for example, enjoy a nice meal at our favorite restaurants.

It’s an island that relies on international travel and a lot of global trade. They also note many (half?) of the carriers are asymptomatic.

Icelandic authorities themselves expect cases to return.

All the experts and authorities, including many in China and WHO, have been saying for months that don’t expect the virus to go away. Even politicians like Cuomo have said the virus is staying with us.

But for some reason, people are still talking about eradication. When the experts/authorities say “under control”, they really mean medical systems aren’t overwhelmed and we can expect to move toward normalcy. They don’t mean eradication of the virus at all.

But people seem to have trouble accepting the virus is staying. And it makes me despair for the prospects of the economy going forward because it effectively means we are still in the denial stage, possibly bargaining stage, and not even close to acceptance yet.

No, they only practice massive social distancing and obsessively contact trace and quarantine the infected.

There is no such evidence.

And yet other cause deaths are WAY down with all that care deferrred.

What lessons weren't headed from SARS?

What lessons are those? The opposite of what you're selling. The lesson is to lock down early and hard, treat experts like a complete joke who have no clue what they're doing, and never trust the scum that is the Chinese Communist Party.

What? Iceland is one of the most isolated places around, especially in the winter. They got it last and they got it mildly. They're a very young population.

China eradicated it. Taiwan and Korea have too. Croatia is down to <10/day and many counties in Croatia have eradicated it (they closed borders between counties) Where I live, there hasn't been a new case in 12 days and we're about to fully reopen everything, infection free. Australia isn't far from eradication.

What is this pure fantasy you have that eradication is impossible? It's entirely possible.
Again, eradication is perfectly possibly within defined boundaries. And that should be the goal. The fact that people flip flopped on that, like you are doing, is what caused the harm.

Aggressive eradication is what they did with SARS and that worked great. That should have been done here too, and would have if the scum in China hadn't lied, and their WHO lapdogs helped them, and the experts been incompetent clowns.

I agree the virus is gonna stick with us, and by "us" I mean the US. But I fully expect that small geographical/political population units with high social cohesion that can isolate and trace effectively will get it fully under control with nowhere near herd immunity.

The latest euro momo data is out.

https://www.euromomo.eu/graphs-and-maps/

I am guessing the steep drop-off that's been reported from week 15 to week 17 will be reversed somewhat as new data comes in, but the drop in deaths is somewhat startling.

Also, the drop-off in Sweden is probably good news, and it certainly runs counter to what the prevailing narrative was in the media a few weeks ago.

It will be interesting to see what their infection rate is once anti-body testing becomes more widespread there. Right now they are running at three times higher than their worst period of excess mortality over the last three years, which is about the same as Belgium and less than everyone else, including Spain and Italy. The only outlier is England, which is 4x.

The age data for active, recovered, and deaths is here, just scroll down the page a bit.

Who's the father?

Why should we nominate or elect a person in the at risk category?

One reason could be you want the VP to become president.

Which are smart moves, obviously. New Zealand, who have eliminated CV in their community is probably the best success story, with Australia a solid runner-up. But they chose to shut down international travel from foreign nationals and quarantining those returning from overseas. Those 2 steps were the overwhelming reasons for their ability to keep CV in check.

I don't think the evidence is conclusive, but CA locked down and their daily rate of deaths don't seem to be declining much. And Newsom is planning additional closures of beaches and parks. I don't see them loosening up much of anything soon.


I don't think you are saying additional deaths will not occur due to no/delayed treatments/procedures, correct?

Looking at present numbers without projecting forward tells almost zero the expected excess mortality. There are millions who have deferred their health care due to the lockdowns and fear.

I've seen alcohol sales up 50%, that has to be a sobering stat. (pardon the pun)

Self-testing, stubHub ticket admittance based on negative test result within 24 hours. 99% problem solved.

Tie it in with existing ticketing of sporting events, make it seamless with admission procedure.

I live in CA. Freeway traffic has only declined 30-35%, which means there is still a **** ton of people driving around at all hours of the day. And planes are still flying in and out of LAX. We are nowhere close to a lockdown by any meaningful measure.

The limited success we have had probably has more to do with voluntary social distancing, widespread mask wearing in public, and some built in advantages over the East Coast (less dense, less public transport, better weather, etc.) than any "lockdown"