Quote:
Originally Posted by bbfg
If his point is to say "yeah this sucks but in the past this was like normal", what's the point of that? Coronavirus is no biggie, it just means we'll revert back to life standards of 100 years ago? And we just have to accept that and go back to normal and keep consuming so we can go back to business as usual and markets can recover? And just go to the movies etc and accept that everytime we go see a movie there's 2-5 people in the cinema that will die from watching the movie? Same with everything else in our lifes?
I'd also like you to point me to a data point that could be seen as proof that the hospitalization rate of corona is anywhere near the worst flu epidemic in modern history , same for mortality rate.
Spoiler alert: it's not.
It's like saying "yeah this is basicly just the worst flu ever x5-25, no biggie".
You seem to desperately want to put words in my mouth. When did I ever say "no biggie"? 0.25-0.5% is a pretty big number all things considered.
Of course we don't want to live in an era of <50 year life expectancy, we spend a s***load of money on health care to to live longer. (I heard US spends 50% of GDP on health care) Science has given us the polio vaccine, measles vaccine, smallpox vaccine, malaria drugs, along with improved sanitation to reduce yellow fever, cholera, diarrhea, and so on.
In each of those cases, there was a price to pay: The initial outbreak prior to delivering on a vaccine or effective treatment. That is the situation we are now in with the novel coronavirus. I am figuratively holding my breath that an effective vaccine can be delivered in record time, 12-18 months. I've heard experts who know about vaccines and that time frame is optimistic at best.
The vaccine needs to be effective yet safe. Testing needs to be done right. They need to get the dosages right. They then need to mass produce the vaccine in very high quantities. All of these (esp. the latter) take time, are all very difficult, and no step is assured. The vaccine Fauci is pushing from Moderna uses Messenger RNA, and is probably the quickest path but unfortunately due to its methods poses a risk of actually increasing infection thru
antibody enhancement.
Antivirals could play a role, and evidence looks promising. But to try and wait several months for this virus to play out until effective antivirals or a vaccine are developed will simply not work. The shutdown was probably a wise step to figure out where we stand, and what needs to be done going forward to get life back to normalcy as quickly as possible. We have many advantages over 1918. We can perform serology tests to assure those with antibodies can function in society with a reasonable risk of not getting CV. We can take body temperatures very efficiently for those going to crowded areas such as restaurants or sporting events, to further reduce R-0. We can advise those in high risk groups to avoid large gatherings. We can isolate outbreaks and perform mitigation in those areas quickly. Personal hygiene is better.
We also can conduct business in lieu of people. There really is no material reason IMO why the NBA could not resume play next week. Same with MLB. The players want to play, the unions want the players to make money, and the fans want games. Viable plans have been developed, and we could probably ramp up very quickly. Schools should be reopened as well.
Basically, there is no free lunch. Shutdowns going on for months on end will effectively destroy our society beyond the point of recovery. And if the vaccine takes longer, nothing would be gained but a time shift of herd immunity. The most logical step going forward is to resume society balanced with effective mitigation steps which almost everyone can live with. If/when effective treatments and/or vaccines become available, we will be at a point where many will likely benefit (including future generations), and society will not be sacrificed.