Wow. All three chicken littles respond in series within 30 minutes. You guys are a crack-up of crack pots.

Tooth, I'm not even going to bother exposing the comically biased fallacy in your reading of the data. Maybe watch a YouTube video on methodology. Just a kids' course would help a lot. And no, I'm not shifting any goalposts--I said the market will be 3283 on 3/1. I also said that it will never get below 2700. Those aren't mutually exclusive. Use your brain.

So are you saying the total deaths will double every six days? I choose deaths instead of infections because there's less uncertainty in those estimates. I dare you to make a concrete prediction about the death totals two months from today, but I know you won't since you know you're actually a coward ignoramus who just wants to post about his prepper fantasy of the world turning into World War Z.

despacito, you're really dredging through all my posts so you can post stupid off-topic quips in this thread? Get a life. The Mlife rewards aren't transferable between properties, so I had to use them at Bellagio. I ended up using them on sweet potato fries at Snacks. I used the Wynn rewards on a mediocre cashew chicken dish at a restaurant called 8 (I think). Neither property has a reasonably priced hot dog.

Best content itt.

No quips intended. You are right. It is cowardly to identify a range of outcomes. We should be predicting a specific number of deaths [x] days/months in the future with 100% certainty, and then focusing on hitherto unsolved problems, such as where to find a reasonably priced hot dog at the Bellagio, or a higher quality cashew chicken at the Wynn.

I just assumed he's BrianTheMick's gimmick account. Dad brain, blindly trusts corrupt idiotic expert opinion even when it's 99% to be wrong, discounts any scenario that's not business as normal, bad at math and rational analysis. I like the guy, but he does bad/lazy analysis that gets it right 90% of the time (because status quo) and blown to pieces the others.
Where do you get that from? Chinese have hugely underreported CV deaths. Tests aren't done on dead bodies when people die at home, they're simply immediately cremated in Wuhan (see: multiple NYT stories)

No, they won't double every six days. Wuhan is contained/declining after 28 days in total lockdown and with the major infection center contained it won't go exponential for a while until global infections ramp up. But even so: in Wuhan there are 8,853 serious, 1,845 critical. 49% who reach critical die (according to Chinese data). That's 1000 (minimum) deaths right there in the next 6 days if the data is honest.

There are so many factors that go into that it's absurd. If the spread is not contained at this early stage globally, one of two things happens:

1. Millions die. The market takes a huge hit from the economic disruption OR

2. They lock everything down including entire cities as Italy/China/Korea is doing, with increasing severity (Wuhan level citywide total shutdown month-longth house detention in the worst cases). Global trade, tourism, economic output and supply chains suffer badly. The market take a medium size hit from corporate profit hits and Asian recession.

We're already seeing the impact of the partial Chinese shutdown already. The selloff Friday in tech, and particularly in computer hardware related companies, was due to this analysis:
This was 100% certain a week ago, but the market is stupid and complacent and they need concrete things like this to realize what's obvious (which is why I and others can make money).

The impacts on trade, travel and production/supply chains are already going to happen at a moderate level even if the virus is contained now. This is a good proxy for China's economy right now (a lot more reliable than spotty reporting or official data):



Look at the red line. China is still near completely shut down, using power at the levels it normally uses during the 2 week total production/business shutdown Chinese New Year holiday. About half normal levels. Cars sales in China are down 93% so far this month. 1/14 of normal levels. If all the shutdowns are reversed tomorrow, it will be > 1 month to return to normal, and supply chain ripples will last longer. Chinese will also not have much spare cash to spend after weeks of no work/pay, affecting consumer activity. Singapore has seen a >90% drop in arrivals. A 2.5 million person city in Korea is shut down. Etc.

I got it from this:

If cases double every six days, and the death rate is assumed to be fairly constant, how are deaths not going to double every six days? I realize there may be a 2-4 week lag between them, but at some point, we need to see deaths start doubling every six days if you're right about infections doubling every six days. Where are all the deaths? I know you'll hand wave and say China is covering them up or something, but that's unfair of you to use their infection figures but then refuse to use their death figures. You don't even notice because you're so biased.


This is what I mean with you sounding like a gold bug. We're always in an early stage and collapse is looming. Do you want me to go back and find a post of yours from over two weeks ago saying that "it'll be clear in 1-2 weeks" whether a pandemic is inevitable and markets will tank? Is it clear to you yet that the pandemic is on? If so, stop hedging everything with if's and this ">30%" hand waving. Gold bugs love to say "the >30% chance of collapse this month isn't priced into the gold market." And "If the Fed keeps printing funny money, gold will be $3000 this year." You just keep extending the time frame and warning of this great pandemic. Meanwhile it's been three months and we're at annual bee-sting-level deaths.

The market also factors in that the lag in spending will get largely made up for once this all blows over. It also factors in that the Fed can just pump in $120 billion a month instead of $60 billion a month. It also factors in that investors have nowhere else to put their money. You talked about historical P/E in that other thread, while completely ignoring historical interest rates. It may take a fool to invest at a Shiller P/E of 24 when 30-year yields are 8%, but when yields are under 2%, it's perfectly reasonable.

Anyway, let me know how long I have to wait before we can declare COVID-19 a pandemic or not. I can wait a whole year for that apology if you want.

You're confusing how many deaths we should have if this was exponential for 93 days (hint: exactly the number we do have, I did the math for you, please have someone explain it to you!) with the noise of Wuhan (the majority of cases) now being contained and declining after 29 days of military lockdown, which means we should temporarily decline in death rate until other hotspots catch up on infections.

There's nothing gold buggy about this. Mainstream top expert opinion is that this is likely to very likely to be a pandemic with millions infected. But it's not certain yet. Governments have done a horrible job of testing and monitoring for it, so numbers only just spiked and tens of thousands of tests still need to come in. Korea progressed from 38 to 600 in 5 days after finding a single patient and tracing contacts. And they probably haven't caught most of them. Italy progressed from 5 to 134 in a few days after testing contacts of a single patient. There is ******-level monitoring of this worldwide because of people with your conceited idiocy, who think it's 99% that this will be blow over. This is what Italy is doing right now, at 134 in a few days after having 5 cases only for many weeks, and previously looking completely contained:

This will have substantial economic impacts, but according to you this is just like the flu and will all blow over with 99% probability.

Iran progressed from 0 to 43 in a few days, with 8 deaths, which at a 2% death rate and exponential spread/multi-week death lag, conservatively means that thousands are already infected and spreading to 10s of thousands right now just in Iran. The signs are terrible for containment. I've nailed the analysis of this so far, sadly.

These are the absolute lower bound of infections. If hundreds have it in both Italy and Iran after being 5 and 0 for weeks, then it's certain that other countries also have hundreds not yet caught, spreading it to thousands right now.
You need to get tested for Alzheimers. This was explained to you above, with simple math, why there should be about 2000 dead after 3 months if this is spreading exponentially with a doubling every six days (what multiple papers claim the rate is). Why are you still bringing this up? Everyone not functionally ******ed has moved on already, this is settled. Stop wasting people's time.

South Korea on lockdown. This isn't a death pool sub, it's about finance and a bunch of stocks are going to tank from this. Maybe the world economy too.

For sure. We should have banned Brass from his first post, an obvious idiot incapable of doing rational analysis.

The market completely and complacently and stupidly has discounted the economic impacts that are already happening and will happen regardless of whether it's contained now. The case was always pretty simple and has nothing to do with deaths: it either goes uncontained through a good chunk of the human race, causing millions of deaths, overflowing hospitals, and this causing economic disruption, OR extreme lockdown measures (like Wuhan and China broadly) manage to contain the deaths but cause meaningful economic disruption and harm corporate profits a lot.

Either way there will be meaningful economics that cause a recession in some countries and global economic output and spending to drop enough to really hurt corporate profits.

We aren't far off by any stretch of the word

By the way to move it off this idiot Brass dicussion and to more productive things, if anyone can post mainstream analysis and economic data of the impact so far, it would be helpful for trading/investing. So far I have:

- Chinese economic output still on total-shutdown lows
- Chinese auto sales down 93% on last year, through Feb 16
- Canalys, major industry analyst/data firm, says global PC sales will decline 10-20% Q1, 9-23% Q2, and 3 to 8% globally overall this year as an impact from the virus. PC related companies got hit hard on Friday by this analysis.

It would be great if anyone has solid analysis on supply chain impacts so far. Even anecdotes for those in global supply chain related businesses.

Might already be a diagnostic bottleneck, given how long Japan took to test everyone on the cruise ship.

Feb. 23: 602 cases (day still in progress)
Feb. 22: 436 cases
Feb. 21: 209 cases
Feb. 20: 111 cases
Feb. 19: 58 cases
Feb. 18: 31 cases

Hard to compare rates to early Wuhan given the virus was unknown then. There should be more information and vigilance in identifying and testing suspected infections now ie. more rapid discovery.

It's not the rate that matters, it's that fact that there were 600 undiagnosed in a single city (most from one church) that no one had any clue about. Iran has thousands infected (going by the 8 deaths already and a 2% death rate and a 3-4 week lag) and was zero until 3 days ago.

The point is that this is everywhere in the world an no one is catching it or screening for it properly until there are major infestations, and when they find one then there are hundreds already who have it.

Given that the army just surrounded 10 Italian cities with 3 month's prison for going in or out, and shut down all public gatherings in Veneto region, it's obviously serious, so why weren't these utter ******s screening for it at hospitals weeks ago? The corrupt WHO leader didn't help, but basic public health practice with an outbreak like this is to set up screening.

It shows how incompetent the global response has been in containing and monitoring for this. They literally just started testing contacts of a 38 year old on life support with pneumonia, who presented 10 days ago to hospital. He infected staff, other patients, contacts at the bar. What are these ******s doing? How does a healthy 38yo presenting with severe atypical pneumonia not immediately have a priority test sent out for same day testing? Why are these kits not in place already 30 days into wide public knowledge of the seriousness of this?

This is why a pandemic is all but inevitable.

Death/(death+recovered) outside of Hubei is down to ~1.4% and has been trending down over time despite the fact testing is still mostly focused on the worst cases.

Means nothing. The China data is all bullshit. We actually have our first reliable controlled test population, the Diamond Princess.

635 infected, 3 dead already, 29 are serious (>10% of these will die) and 7 are critical (>40% these will die), most infections are recent/new. That's a >1% confirmed death rate already with first class Western medical care and early diagnosis. I'd say at least 500 of those 600 cases are yet to play out enough to progress to serious, let alone death. The population is mostly over 60 so we should see around 50 dead/around 8% if this has a 1-2% all-population death rate.

Already from the Diamond Prince we know for a fact it's far more deadly than the flu. That's beyond any doubt.

3 confirmed infections in Italy from the Friday WHO report

They are up to 79 today and American DoD schools are being closed for precautionary measures

Interesting data visualization of global cases: coroviz.com

John's Hopkins map
https://gisanddata.maps.arcgis.com/a...23467b48e9ecf6

A map of airport travelers. Note the relative risk of airports around Northern Italy is relatively low compared to major hubs in northern Europe and US.
http://rocs.hu-berlin.de/corona/

There is basically no chance we're not looking at (at minimum) hundreds of undiagnosed cases in at least some of the major hubs.

Italy is nuts. Look at the spread of towns with this:
These are just the ones they've caught so far. Until 3 days ago they thought they had 5 cases total in the country with no new cases in weeks. This is a Western country with a modern health system.

When I was in Venice a month ago, there were 10s of thousand of Chinese tourists, some coughing and sneezing, walking around Venice's sardine-packed streets, cafes, museums, touching railings, ATMS, doors, counter tops. Watching that day after day and thinking what must be going on in 50 other tourist hotspots around the world make me realize back then this probably won't be contained. Now we know that one person can spread it to 150+ merely by attending church without close contact (South Korea) or living in same packed area (700 on the Diamond Princess).

There is no way this doesn’t massively affect the world economy.
The next 2 weeks in Italy and South Korea are absolutely crucial.
They will give us the information we need to understand how the epidemic develops.

I’m not a market guy I’m just here for the Coronavirus talk which I hope it’s ok. ( if not then let me know because I’m not putting my money where my mouth is).

Hey you've got a better handle on things than the guys buying at all time highs thinking this will blow over.

As for the economy, at this stage it's already disrupting

- Global supply chains. Many are scrambling to find alternative supply apart from China, whose economy is shut down
- Some manufacturing (all manufacturing in China)
- Major conferences and trade fares where trillions in business is done each year
- Sporting and cultural events in multiple countries are shut down
- Global tourist traffic, global air traffic, with Asian hit especially hard. Tourist traffic which has been reliable for years affects whole economies quite easily through flow-on effects
- Consumer spending in China and now some of Asia

The economy has had 11 years of strong reliable growth off GFC lows with no shocks.

Re: conditions in the Church/numbers.

http://www.koreaherald.com/view.php?ud=20200223000191

Same person also likely the source of 108 infections at a hospital.

This is not a typical church, but those conditions might be quite common in some countries.

The critical data is

I) how the diamond princess patients turns out after we adjust it for age. So far only deaths of very old people and 0,4% of the sample. We need to see how the thing develops in the next few weeks.
Do we have the data for all patients in age groups in the Diamond princess ? That way we can compare it to the Chinese study and estimate a CFR %

II) How South Korea and Italy are able to contain the virus. If they control it better than Hubei then that’s good. If they control it worse then that’s horrible. The Italian cluster has less population density.

III) New uncontrolled clusters during the next week. We had 3 of those this week. If we don’t have any in the developed world then that’s good. 1 extra cluster would be meh, 2 or more then that’s super bad.
We should expect more capacity to avoid those clusters given that we have the Italian experience of negligence.

any other countries beyond china, italy, south korea and (i saw reference to) iran?

anyway, that's alot right there.

futures were down 1.5% a few hours ago and we're even close to new york NYSE open.

a monday, the virus spreading and bernie sanders success could equal a very ugly day tomorrow

how have some obvious asian countries kept their incidence rates so low? i'm thinking indonesia, taiwan (yes, there are huge number of flights to china), phillipines etc... didn't notice hong kong. guess it's not a country.

isn't shanghai the key international airport? or do alot of shanghai travellers go to beijing airport?....... of course, shanghai and beijing airports probably have a very similar international flight schedule