#covidiot is now trending on twitter, as one would predict, it's used by both the nothingburger and doomburger sides against each other

fml, beginning to understand why so many people take noah's flood as god's reasonable solution now

Mortality rate: There is a 3-4 wek delay between infected and death. In expontially growing outbreak, there are 100 infected now, 200 next week, 400 next week. So the biggest group of people will always be the recently infected ones. That is why dead/infected will be way too low. If u want to use that stat for US you should take the dead/(infected 3 weeks ago)

Issues with data interpretation.

I see a lot of people on twitter and in various articles coming to erroneous conclusions because they are misreading the data. I am just going to deconstruct some of these arguments and explain what is really going on.

"Germany shows the case fatality rate for this virus is lower/closer to 1%".

What is really going on with Germany's data?

A) I suspect they are just picking cases up earlier.
B) You need to also account for the lag in time it takes for these individuals to die. Simply Dividing cases/deaths will not give you an accurate figure of the true case fatality rate within a population, there is lag in the data that must be accounted for.

If you look at Germany's doubling-time in deaths, it is right in line with other western countries. Based upon the current data, we are seeing a doubling-time of roughly 2-3 days in Germany, their slope is very similar to that of other western countries.

"For every test positive test there are 10-100 untested relatively healthy infected, so this is actually somewhere in the 0.4-0.04 mortality rate, NO DIFFERENT THAN FLU!"

This is simply inaccurate and China's numbers disprove this. We are going to look at total confirmed cases of 2k and count forward. If you look at China's numbers from Jan 25 - Feb 12, there is an increase of 56k confirmed cases within a 18 day time frame. If you look at Italy, very similar, roughly took about an 20 day time frame. Why does this matter? Because, if countries were really under-reporting 10x - 100x cases, we should then expect to see very different slopes in their graphs, this is simply not what we see. The fact that all western countries have very similar slopes/growths in cases, shows us we are probably not under-reporting as much as we think. Even China under-reported in the beginning, but on Feb 12 those cases ended up being counted. The fact that China's growth is very similar to what we are currently seeing in western countries, is not a fluke, they were being fairly honest with the data, and with what we are currently seeing in western countries, proves that. The only thing that may be off with China's data, is their deaths, but even if it is off, it is not as much as a lot of you think.

Good point, and given how much Italy, Iran, etc... have jumped ahead, it seems to be the case.

10 new deaths in Indo today for a total of 48 and 6 of them doctors in the last 3 days. Malls, cinemas, dance clubs still open tonight and then apparently they will close tomorrow/next week. Doubt they will learn from Philippines or now Thailand that when these service industries close in the cities the workers need to go back to their home towns.

Bus station situation in Bankok right now:

Are you using 2+2 to respond to something you saw on twitter?

Germany's mortality rate has been hovering around 0.3% for a week, despite absolute confirmed case numbers increasing as expected. Do you really think as time moves on this is going to shoot up to stabilize >1% like South Korea? I feel the South Korea ratios weren't stable for so long.

kelhus, search "germany" in the thread, it's been dealt with heavily

they test anyone who wants a test and do it for free, whereas other places are only testing people in the hospital more or less so they are testing a lot of people who don't even have symptoms and people who'd otherwise just ride it out at home and never be part of the statistics

for example, in italy the death rate this year vs prior year baseline is much higher than what the official numbers account for - the reason being the elderly who die at home aren't tested

we won't have any idea until this is all said and done and statisticians do studies measuring the amount of people who actually died and subtract an amount that they believe would have died under normal conditions

Just did a little of research re Germany.

They are also counting deaths differently.

Italy & I think most countries are reporting deaths of who people had corona.
Germany is reporting deaths on what killed them regardless of them having corona or not. So if someone had lung cancer & corona and the doctor decides that lung cancer killed him and not corona, it's not a corona death.

Obviously I have no knowledge in this field, maybe someone with more healthcare knowledge can weigh in if this makes sense.

Denmark's fiscal policy response is quite comprehensive. Do you think it makes sense, what countries would/would not benefit from this approach? Denmark’s Idea Could Help the World Avoid a Great Depression

yes it will go up for sure. When the number of new cases goes down (cuz effects of lockdown start to work) the death rate will spike. Germany was slower to respond than SK. Its actually not a good sign if the death rate isnt increasing.

The mortality rate in Germany will be higher then South Korea's. The doubling-time of deaths within Germany already proves this. There is nothing special about Germany. Germany, France, Spain, UK, and the United States are all following a similar trajectory that resembles Italy, South Korea is an anomaly. Now, this does not mean all western countries will turn out the same, how western countries environmentally respond is going to be the biggest factor in how many people are going to end up dying.

There was some question over the first death in the UK as to whether they died 'with covid' or 'of covid'

Eventually a comparison between areas may require deducting the number of expected deaths from the number of actual deaths during a time period. It's far from ideal but it will give a truer picture unless deaths rates are fairly uniform by region/age and counts can be done to some standard.

I was quite stunned to see that ~500k people die in England each year.

What just happened with USA figures? +12,5k in 1 day & prolly not even done yet?

From what I understand, testing is ramping up. And thus we expect the #'s to ramp up as well.

Yup, what just happened with the U.S. is exactly what happened with China on Feb 12.

They only have 900 cases in Israel and only 20 in serious/critical. It seems like they could still help them before they experience the influx of patients that is still awhile ahead.

This was posted somewhere upthread:

It's sad but it is the correct decision. The young are younger, they also have a higher chance of survival. Has anyone mathematically modeled when western countries would theoretically run out of ventilators?

Yes. Israel of all countries understands the corruption and cronyism in international “expert” bodies like the UN and the WHO, and would completely ignore the open border nonsense and clamp down and get things under control fast.

Man this thread without Tooth reminds me of that year at summer camp when my favorite counselor with huge tits didn't come back. She had been there the previous 2 glorious summers, was literally the best part of being 14 and stepping off the bus for those 6 weeks. And like Tooth she flaunted it. She was not shy if you knew she was the best.

At first I was just in denial. "Maybe she's just starting a week later? Maybe she got lost on the way up?". Then I was bummed out. And then I guess I just accepted it, and tried to see if any of the lesser tits would suffice.

Tooth, nobody's got your tits in here man. Nobody.

Weird story bro. Were you a cit? Or a lol14yo sleepaway camper
? Where did tooth go?did your story scare him away?

I don't know what a cit is. Just your usual sleepaway camp. Water sports, camp fires, basketball, capture the flag, hand jobs. You know.

At the time you never really think it's gonna be the most care free part of your life.

I didn't scare Tooth away. I just hope to bring him back.

This is what actual experts have been predicting since early February. It’s another disease that will take tens of thousands of lives on an annual basis and there isn’t much we can do about it in the short term.

If Tooth doesn't come back (don't blame him) can we get that Brass dude back and basically do the opposite of what he say with some candybar reverse indicators also?

Not true. Plenty of experts were downplaying this virus. I have seen multiple virologist downplay this virus and compare it to the flu or say flu is more deadly. Toothsayer is 100% correct, "experts" are still prone to biases and can easily make mistakes with the data, I have seen this over and over for the past 2 months. At the end of the day, "experts" are just people.... and most people are stupid.

https://twitter.com/jonst0kes/status...76948478689281