That spread to 42 people in South Korea in church was ridiculous. Could be 100+ once testing is done, from a single sick old lady going to church. A city of 2.5 million in South Korea was simply locked down. Another cluster of 36 just now in a single Beijing hospital.

WHO says in press conference before the selloff that global numbers very low compared to China, but that "might not stay the same for very long".

Air Association says that Asian bookings will be down at least 13% this financial year. Should be good for fragile Asian economies with less activity and tourist money going through.

650 have the virus on that ship - less than half tested still - and 2 are now dead.

China meanwhile changes their reporting method (again) and only report 370 new today, down from ~2000/day. Cool story bro.

Shows how quickly the trend could explode up. We are not seeing so many infections beyond China yet. But a large number of infections could be occurring undetected, and we do not know how many of these clusters exist.

Saw report that all passengers have now been tested but results might take 1-2 days. Lost a lot of confidence in ability of governments to effectively contain this after watching the cruise ship incident unfold. Not saying it is their fault - it is an intractable problem. Also, some of the measures taken in China might be less effective, or unviable, in other countries. En masse quarantines, contact tracing, building hospitals in a couple of days...

Source? China might update figures later.

I'm agreeing with Clayton for now on not news related.
Yeah. A 42x exponential (possibly 100 once testing is done) just from an old lady going to church is something to write home to mom about. 9 people can transmit nothing and we still have an R0 of 4.

We've had no meaningful crisis for a long time. Hence government (and organizations like the UN) are full of worthless and corrupt people. And the market is complacent.

whole lotta corona fud going on in iran right now. ppl not trusting govt on it either cuz of how they handled shooting down that commercial plane.

What is going on with case classification? They are reverting back to the suspected/lab confirmed approach, but are still including the clinically diagnosed cases in the cumulative total? The primary source linked by the WHO is in Chinese with no English translation...

Looks like the China numbers held below 400 with no update.

The Korea cluster story is going to become more and more common around the world. There will be random spreaders in unexpected locations going undetected for weeks until someone eventually shows symptoms severe enough to lead to a coronavirus test.

Japan cases are picking up. Iran might have a disaster developing. Canada just confirmed a case from someone who traveled to Iran, and combined with the two reported deaths of people who had not traveled outside Iran, it means it's not unlikely there are hundreds or thousands already infected.

It's also worth noting no city outside China is yet at numbers we had in Wuhan in December. We know to be more careful now, so the growth won't be as explosive as it was in Wuhan, but superspreaders will continue to pop up, which means it can't be contained.

This will be bigly rather shortly. Starting to consider quitting the gym...

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Shinch..._the_Testimony


Apparently the Korean outbreak was within some strange cult. I haven't researched further but I'm guessing there were some rituals involved that exacerbated spreading of the virus...

https://twitter.com/AskAKorean/statu...554163712?s=20

And the cult is instructing its members to not cooperate with the authorities and continue proselytizing outdoors! If you live in Daegu, I would stay in. You can barely take a subway without these people trying to chat you up.

there's always a cult

why would anyone be afraid of a virus if they have cult powers?

Be a man and act like the virus doesn't exist. Under 40s have 0.2% death rate.

So you're saying I should get on that cruise?

Virus today:

- 240 new cases in South Korea, with 98 linked to a single hospital, and 37 to that church.
- 18 new cases in Italy, bringing the total to 38 (from 3 a few days ago). The 38yo man who started the spread after having dinner with a Chinese friend is being mechanically ventilated in intensive care and is near death. 14 of his contacts are in serious condition. 10 Italian towns, schools, some railway lines are shut down.
- 10 new cases in Iran, gone from 3 to 28 in two days. In different cities. Separately, a women flying in Canada from Iran has it.

High probability at this point (it was that way quite a while ago if you weren't functionally ******ed):

- Mass global uncontainable spread.
- High death rate (>1%).
- Large economic effects over the next two months, especially in Asia, as attempts to contain this depress supply chains, travel and spending, which puts some economies into recession.
- People in this thread (excluding Brass) are sadly better virus experts than the head of the WTO

The outbreak in South Korea is particularly concerning.



^^

Won't be long and Brass will demand an apology from the virus...

Gold 2000+ if >1% of population is getting killed?

That's 70 million people.

Well, <50% will get infected, and it will take time to go around the global population. Much of the heavily breeding poor world is young and has a very low average age, and deaths are low in this group. The average age of the world is 29 (40+ in civilized countries). I also think a lockdown is probable. If this goes popuplation-wide the death rate will be way above 1%. The percentage requiring hospitalization seems to be around 15%. Hospital services are overwhelmed at <1% extra, which means people won't be able get treatment and the death rate will be way higher than Wuhan. That kind of scenario is 70 million dead, but they'll start mass producing not-fully-tested vaccines before then, and locking places down with bad infection rates.

Italy is looking like a disaster, it looks like this has been spreading for weeks and none of the cucks in charge had any clue. Much of the world is like that, corrupt incompetent government officials like the WHO director, who was paid off and pressured by China to advise against the trade and travel bans that any sane person would have done.

This spread in Italy won't be the only one; like I said they've caught <10% of cases globally, and those thousands are currently spreading it to 10s of thousands if they haven't already.

Have not read about Italy yet - is the origin clear? Agree only a fraction of cases are being detected, and there are incentives for countries to lie/delay reporting eg. the threat of travel bans/advisories. Some will take the higher moral ground, others won't...

The S. Korea cluster is truly surreal...

https://www.nytimes.com/2020/02/21/w...incheonji.html

My friends husband is stationed in Italy and they shut down carnival.

Or at least the troops aren't allowed to go, but I think its bigger than just that based on what she said.

More arrogant posts from the chicken littles-- how surprising. You guys have been saying now for weeks that it's about to be a pandemic and that the markets are going to tank. The market is what--a percent off the all time high? The number of deaths, after three months of this "pandemic" is less than the number of people who die every year falling off ladders. Tooth, I thought the death rate was exponential? What happened with that? Remember how the virus was spreading through China and it was in Beijing and all the insults about me not knowing what exponentials look like. The death rate has been decreasing for a week, just as you said it was about to explode. Is this what a pandemic looks like--0.000015% of the population of the hardest-hit county dies after three months?

You guys sound like all the gold bugs you like to make fun of who always point to some new case and shout louder about how the collapse is really going to happen any day now. I'll state it here in no vague terms: The S&P 500 will never again drop below 2700, which is less than the 20% drop you chicken littles have been predicting for a month now because of this "pandemic".

You were much cooler when you were demanding apologies.

Also, don't you think it is more arrogant to proclaiming the SPX will never again hit 2700 when speculation is rampant, breadth is terrible, and there are a myriad of other signs that we are at least set to take a pause? Or worst case a downturn? I don't know any good traders/investors that completely ignore the downside.

Right now the only people that sound like gold bugs are the permabull's that think a 1% move is a downswing. Call speculation is at all time highs. You're likely a bag holder for the smart money.

Brass,
You're a figure of sport at this point. Something for people to point at and laugh. Stop posting.
On the contrary, we've said the market is irrationally complacent, pricing in zero chance of economic impacts or global spread, which are high (>30%).

Let's see. First case 3 months ago = 93 days ago. Doubling every 6 days exponentially (according to The Lancet) = 15 iterations = 2 ^ 15 = 32,768 cases. What we're seeing is exactly what you'd expect if this was exponential spread. And this is 29 days into total lockdown in the infection hotspot which has most cases, which should have put it to near 0 weeks ago if this was like the flu.

I kind of feel bad. Replying to you with facts, logic and math is like beating up on a ******.
Yes, that's exactly what it looks like. See the math above and add a 3-4 weeks infection to death lag. You really should have taken a math course in high school, this is embarrassing for you.

Hmmm...this is what you said earlier when the market was making highs as there had been stagnation in global cases
Now you're shifting the goalposts to -20% from the above? lol?. Scared? Who's the chicken little?

Anyway man, like I said, this is just sport with a ******, you were vehemently on the wrong side of a 99% probability (that China wasn't undercounting infections and deaths), none of your analysis or commentary is worth anything from your own demonstrable incompetence and failure (twice now) at basic math.

I half suspect Brass is a fake account created by TS to make himself look smart.

If so, it's working.

It's definitely a gimmick account. His join date is May 2019.

Brass, did you find a reasonably priced hotdog?