Brass,
You're a figure of sport at this point. Something for people to point at and laugh. Stop posting.
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Originally Posted by Brass
More arrogant posts from the chicken littles-- how surprising. You guys have been saying now for weeks that it's about to be a pandemic and that the markets are going to tank. The market is what--a percent off the all time high?
On the contrary, we've said the market is irrationally complacent, pricing in zero chance of economic impacts or global spread, which are high (>30%).
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The number of deaths, after three months of this "pandemic" is less than the number of people who die every year falling off ladders.
Tooth, I thought the death rate was exponential? What happened with that?
Let's see. First case 3 months ago = 93 days ago. Doubling every 6 days exponentially (according to The Lancet) = 15 iterations = 2 ^ 15 = 32,768 cases. What we're seeing is
exactly what you'd expect if this was exponential spread. And this is 29 days into total lockdown in the infection hotspot which has most cases, which should have put it to near 0 weeks ago if this was like the flu.
I kind of feel bad. Replying to you with facts, logic and math is like beating up on a ******.
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Remember how the virus was spreading through China and it was in Beijing and all the insults about me not knowing what exponentials look like. The death rate has been decreasing for a week, just as you said it was about to explode. Is this what a pandemic looks like--0.000015% of the population of the hardest-hit county dies after three months?
Yes, that's exactly what it looks like. See the math above and add a 3-4 weeks infection to death lag. You really should have taken a math course in high school, this is embarrassing for you.
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You guys sound like all the gold bugs you like to make fun of who always point to some new case and shout louder about how the collapse is really going to happen any day now. I'll state it here in no vague terms: The S&P 500 will never again drop below 2700, which is less than the 20% drop you chicken littles have been predicting for a month now because of this "pandemic".
Hmmm...this is what you said earlier when the market was making highs as there had been stagnation in global cases
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Originally Posted by Brass
Just an update on things: You'll recall that I called out Je$ter (who has since crawled into a hole of shame) when he said the market would tank back when the S&P was at 3283. I said that by 3/1/20 it would be higher than 3283--looking pretty good.
Now you're shifting the goalposts to -20% from the above? lol?. Scared? Who's the chicken little?
Anyway man, like I said, this is just sport with a ******, you were vehemently on the wrong side of a 99% probability (that China wasn't undercounting infections and deaths), none of your analysis or commentary is worth anything from your own demonstrable incompetence and failure (twice now) at basic math.