In all honesty O.A.F.K, it is not a legit methodology for those who have no comprehension of what legit methodology entails.

Tooth almost certain does believe his methodology is superior and correct. That you do not weight more and use the current curve for extrapolation as he thinks his insights about the prior curve will actually prove more valuable to the correct trend.

That is because he is hopelessly dumb.

You see it as well in my current argument where people are arguing that trying to introduce 'the consideration of the risks of taking the vaccine and potential negative outcomes' to the risk of 'not taking the vaccine and potential negative outcomes from getting covid' is not something they believe should be done and is a 'derail'.

The entire history of 'vaccine versus virus' and 'xyz medicine versus disease' begins with that equation but M'uh Freedoms bro's have created a rationale why here, for the first time in history, that is not to be a consideration.

Problem they have is the people on the other side of the debater are actual smart, unlike them.

More on vaccinations and young people:

That's a strong signal. Higher than expected means higher than baseline - and interestingly only showing up in young people and only with the mRNA version.

Cuepee hates science though and is a science denier, so he makes out like this is nothing.

OAFK11,
It's over son. Your mind broke when Europe soared past the US from a much lower like I said it would to your surprise and shock (and had to lock down hard for 6 months over winter).

The fact that you're clinging to the above so hard is just hilarious.

Then present the full case because obviously you have seen enough clear cut data to jump to the conclusion "it's not close".


Surely you would not just make guesses and represent that as so conclusive we can say "it's not close".

Let's assess your data and see how good you are at finding good and reliable data and is conclusory.

Keep em coming Clowntooth:

It's not clear for young people but lets not forget that some would die (and far more get ill) from covid if they got infected and were unvaccinated. Hopefully also going down significantly thanks to improved ttreatment.

It's .2% deaths for 10-19 and the same for 20-29 year olds according to here:
https://www.worldometers.info/corona...-demographics/

That's what we have to first compare to the downside of the vaccine. The selfishness argument is very secondary.

lol no. This is ancient (Wuhan time) data. You're reading from the "Old Data" section on that page. Here's the real data:



256 total 5-18 year olds in the entire US (out of ~60 million and maybe 20 million infected) have died from covid since this began. The vast majority were very sick/close to death - childhood cancer, immune disorders, etc. Covid is a complete and total nothingburger for the young. That's a less than 1 in 100,000 death rate for the non-extremely-sick. Less dangerous than most other activities. For most it's not even noticable; the majority are asymptomatic and the rest have extremely mild symptoms.

Compare that to the effects of the vaccine which are brutal:

For a lot of young people, each dose gives fatigue, moderate to severe, nasty muscle and joint pain, and a feeling of illness; I know several people who've had it who've been totally knocked out ("the sickest of their life) for 1 to 3 days depending on the person. Young people tend to get worse reactions than the old; their immune systems are stronger and overreact more.



It's a nasty thing. That might have been ok if it was just that for the social good, but once you add in this heart stuff in healthy individuals it's getting to the point it doesn't make sense to vaccinate the young. Clearly there are some extreme systemic effects happening here; who knows what else the vaccine is doing including long term that doesn't rise to the level of "their healthy heart is so ****ed that they have to go to hospital"?

Ah my bad. Sorry

The point I wanted to make is that it's not risk free for deaths or illness for young people. That's where we need to compare. Selfishness is a very secondary issue. Can't compare reports of fatigue to death stats though. We have to compare non-fatal vaccine side effects to the non-fatal symptoms of being ill.

Unclear to me at the moment. Partly because it's not a decision I have had to consider. The experts seem very uncertain as well.

The dishonesty of cases (US tested far more and had far lower positivity rate) vs deaths is hilarious.

Like I said your mind is completely broken. You're completely gone son. There's nothing left there that's sane as relates to this thread. Perhaps it's from 6 months of rolling lockdowns from Europe's inferior strategy.

Here's what happened:

Argument (when Europe was far below the US in cases and far far below in daily deaths):

Me: Winter will suck in the US, but it will be just fine, and not have to lock down/destroy their economy thanks to summer burn through. Europe will soar past the US very soon and be forced to lock down.

You, many others: omgwtf??? Are you mad? Europe is far below the US and will never catch up, they have masks and trust the science and are far below on numbers, how can the above possibly happen? Covid being bad in the US is because of Trump, Europe will never have that outcome. Your take is just you being a Trump fan and not seeing reality

Result: Europe soared past the US and had to lock down hard, many times, while the US was just fine. Both ended covid with similar death rates despite Europe being in hard rolling lockdown for months on end and destroying their economy. Conversation started in September when Europe was far below the US (you OAFK11 joined early October), then Europe soared past the US, approaching collapse, then went into hard total lockdown in October or November depending on country (hard total lockdowns dates circled in red for France and UK), arresting case growth. Meanwhile the US was just fine, staying open, for similar levels of death.



It went exactly as predicted by yours truly - slightly higher death than I thought (600K vs 450K I expected), but the shape of it was correct and inevitable as I amply explained to the apoplexy of Trump hating/blaming clowns like you and others at the time.

And you lost your mind after I spent pages explaining what would happen to you and then was right. You've never come back to sanity since, hugging your graph as a safety blanket for the one tiny thing you got correct (it was an uptick, results oriented, and I was also correct saying the data wasn't firm on that yet) amid an ocean of failure and illogic from you. It's both weird and sad.

If vaccinating 100% of earth would completely eradicate the virus I wouldn't advise that as a goal/strategy.

It's going to take years to vaccinate the whole world. Why the absolute loser-level panic about being vaccinated in the US, then, for young people? Whether they are vaccinated or not will make difference to variants; indeed, optimal strategy for variant spread is stop vaccinating a country when R gets below 1.

You need another argument for forcing the young to take it at this point before we have more data. What else do you have? Your variant argument is a non-starter.

I did cases first so we would get to lol Clowntooth again.




As was obvious at the time, and obvious from the data shown above, there was simply a lag in the development of the Autumn wave between USA and Europe.

Something you went full ****** trying to refute.

If you look at the deaths achieved by USA in the alleged burn through phase, they do nothing to avert the massive peak in February.

As for Deaths total now.

USA DPM 1811
Europe DPM 1445

So only 25% more deaths.

[ ] Same deaths.

Pie in the face again for Clowntooth.

Also fwiw UK has done way more testing than the USA to date, indeed testing in the USA has fallen off a cliff.

Also no one is falling for this line, we are laughing at it though.

No one who thinks deaths will reach 450K offers to lay their entire net worth at 2:1 that deaths dont reach 500K.

Well you can see some are arguing here that any such considerations on this side of the ledger should not be done.

The suggesting being vaccine risk consideration should be solely assessed based upon the risks the vaccine poses, known or unknown, with no consideration of the risk the virus or disease poses.


You are not countering my position, not even a little bit.

An argument of 'there is a need to put the focus in other risk areas FIRST' is not an argument against giving the vaccine to any single group and one I am fine engaging in.

it just so happens your argument supports mine, we just need to flesh out the right time frame.

@Tooth, how do you feel about the FACT that time and again people are able to quote you showing how absolutely wrong and ridiculous you are when it comes to assessing data and making any type of projections based upon it.

Cheerleaders aside, all you have post fact, is your attempts to say why you were not wrong then as tell others they need to NOW bake in some different assumptions based on what you said prior when what you said prior was clear.

It is now commonly referred to and laughs at (not just by me btw) as your 'pivots', 'caveats', 'backpedaling', etc.

there is no one on this forum who gets owned with his own prior data and projections and statements like you do. Trump, the master of getting owned by his prior tweets, would be proud. You have learned well Padawan!

On the contrary, the fact that this is all OAFK11 has proves that I have an incredible record on covid analysis. Most of the thread agrees with this, by the way, including every intelligent person here.
Love the dishonest use of lines. The debate started when Europe was far below the US, moron. I guess to need to embarass you by going back and quoting your idiot posts where I schooled you on what was about to happen, where you couldn't wrap your head around where Europe was about to soar past the US?

Dear stupid, stupid person. I want you read this until you understand it:

Europe locked down hard for many months starting in October to avoid hospital collapse because they were doing so much worse than the US, and their R was far higher.

The US did not have to lock down and stayed mostly open without the massive economic damage and loss of freedom that Europe had.

Europe soared from far below the US to far past the US in a very short period of time - just as I said it would - because their summer strategy sucked. They ended up with about the same deaths for all this pain and lockdowns

The US has double the rate of preexisting conditions of Europe (the highest in the world before China). All things equal, the US if had the same spread as Europe should be about double Europe deaths because preexistings die in 4:1 ratio to healthy people and the US has truly incredible numbers of preexisting conditions

You're legit fully gone in the head son. This isn't even a debate; you're just completely wrong.

Let me give you an analogy:

Two fighters, Europe and USA, go against Mike Tyson.

Europe goes two rounds and has to be taken out of the ring, ending the fight very early and losing a lot of money from the early failout.
USA goes all 12 rounds and stays standing with only 25% more hits taken overall despite all the rounds unprotected and in the ring.

The loser OAFK11's take: Europe did far better than the US because they took fewer punches!!!!

That's the level of epic clown you're bringing to debate. You're gone in the head son. Just completely gone.

You still aren't addressing the main issue we were discussing. That is your assertion that a healthy young person is selfish if they don't get the vaccine. I have proven that that is a stupid assertion to make both with data and using a tragic personal case as an example. Apart from some speculative waffle about eliminating spread and/or variants if everyone in the world is somehow vaccinated (which will never happen) you have offered diddly squat. That you are too dumb or obtuse to even keep to the point makes it a waste of time continuing the debate.

If you watch the video they do explain the heart inflammation stuff was cleared after. They weren't saddled with it for life. Just to put stuff in proper context.

It's both rare and treatable.

I am sure her parents are relieved to hear that.

Haha boy are you dumb.

Don't take your inability to understand information or data as lack of any proof.

I mean, imagine being so dumb that you think giving an example is a winning argument. I mean that is laughably dumb but ok I will stoop to your level of dumb.

CHECKMATE dummy, now admit I won because 'examples'.

Or better yet realize what a stupid argument that is to try to make.

You know you will lose if we go post for post for deaths due to Covid versus deaths via vaccine in any age range right?

And one last time, as chez and others have tried to tell you, you CANNOT just look at the risk of the vaccine for the one taking it and you MUST consider the risk of the virus as well.

Any attempt to consider one without the other deserves nothing but to be laughed at.

I does not appear that you've come close to surpassing the dead and hospitalized children from covid yet, with your 1 rare case here.

A lot of the G7 countries are being forced to open specialized facilities to manage children with long covid. So I dunno man, so far we've not come to net negative territory yet.

Give it time. They haven't even started on the mandatory vaccines for school kids yet. But as I said I'm sure that girl's parents are relieved to hear that hers was a rare case.

Curevac coming in with that hot 47% effectiveness.

Gotta wonder how much of that drop is due to their presumably shitty vaccine and how much is the fact they had participates in 10 countries as opposed to just the US.

It appears that way and there's no reason behind either side that thinks it has no risk or some claim to certainty for young people. It's a shame about this thread becoming so politicised because I'd like to see some serious comparative analysis of the known risks.

But I reiterate that the first analysis has to be about what is best for the individual. We have to, as individuals, receive medical advice that is totally untainted with what is best for other people.

For kids it's even more important that it's based on their individual wellbeing. Its a huge ethical step to vaccinate a child for the benefit of others which, while it could be necessary in extreme scenarios, I dont think covid is anywhere close to that.

Just like the parents of the kid I posted above (19 and super healthy' are sad their kid did not get the vaccine. Boy what a lifesaver that almost certainly would have been.


I am actually astounded that you think this argument by 'example' is sound and makes some point, at this early point.

I say again, there a lot of people in the BFI specifically who seem to have no clue how to structure and make an argument and you seem to be amongst the worst of them at this point.

Anecdotes and examples, especially when they exist on BOTH SIDES of the ledger are not the checkmate point you seem to believe them to be. I honestly have given up you can comprehend that. I think it is beyond you and you actually think you made a undisputable point. But, boy, wow. This would be dumb even for Tooth.

BTW, can I get your comment on how you process this versus your linked article. You know, for the lulz.

‘Super Healthy’ 19-Year-Old Dies from Coronavirus Complications After Returning to College