- Cross-group close socializing activity drives case soaring, since localized nodes tend to burn/immunize out
- As covid gets bad, cross-group close socializing activity dies down, which combined with local node burnout (if only your family can get it, it burns out after 14 days) leads to a rapid drop in R
- None of this requires lockdown intervention in lots of populations; it's self limiting.
[QUOTE=ToothSayer;57079697]That study is completely worthless. Between:
1. Accidental contamination of the sample
2. Contamination of the testing apparatus
3. Using a wrong or faulty test or not applying it properly:
4. Fraud
5. Deliberate contamination by Chinese agents desperate to throw doubt
(giant lol at the bolded)
Take those possibilities, selection biased across the thousands of laboratories in the world - only one has to fail at one of them and publish - and it would be highly probable that in a world with no COVID outside China you'd expect at least one laboratory to report covid in samples before that time.
I don't have any way to prove that covid existed pre wuhan, just a bunch of disparate information from all over the place. I don't want to start a pissing match with you either. If you look at the symptoms and growth of vaping illness, it nearly identical to covid, even down to men being more vulnerable to the disease.
If there is a way, and realistically it could be years before this all shakes out if ever, I would certainly put some money up to back my thesis with some odds. You seem very confident so....
respect...
Yeah, it's game over, this came from a lab. I mean, it was game over just on this:
1. Of all the places where a novel bat coronavirus could emerge, it first emerged within a mile of the one lab on Earth doing enthusiastic bat coronavirus gain of function research
To anyone who's not an idiot, that already creates high likelihood that it came from a lab.
2. The Chinese government's extremely damaging actions in covering this up make no sense if it came from nature. None at all. This is far less compelling than the above, but it adds its bit to the odds
It's sad that the West is so broken by left wingers (who also brought you the world's worst response to this with a failure to contain the pandemic early and unnecessary lockdown) that they actually go out of their way to say it was natural and of course wasn't created in a lab.
The donkey, sh*tsayer speaks again!
Firstly (and I do not dismiss that it Sars-CoV-2 came from a lab) did Sars-CoV-1 also come from a lab? Since these two are what is most closely related.
As for the claim that it is left-wingers who brought the worlds worst pandemic, you clearly are on drugs. All the looneys who I know, who deny that Coronavirus exists, or are against lockdowns, are on the right. I am sure you probably have some left-wing extremists who maybe also feel this way, but the vast majority are on the right. The people who I know on the left are all for lockdowns to contain the spread, and also are for vaccines. The vast majority who are against the vaccines and lockdowns are on the right. Their opening gambit initially was that lockdowns would destroy the economy. They then went on to say that covid is not that serious.
Look at the right-wing President of Brazil, they really handled it well! Does he still claim Covid doesn't exist? Trump did not handle it well, although I am not an expert on the US and imagine different States have a lot of independent power (check the nuts in Florida), and right-wing Modi in India has been beyond shambolic.
- Cross-group close socializing activity drives case soaring, since localized nodes tend to burn/immunize out
- As covid gets bad, cross-group close socializing activity dies down, which combined with local node burnout (if only your family can get it, it burns out after 14 days) leads to a rapid drop in R
- None of this requires lockdown intervention in lots of populations; it's self limiting.
Well-summarized but I wouldn't go as far as to call it a theory. More of a possibility.
When the dust settles and the freedom of information of act requests are filled, the virus originated in the US, not china. Recent autopsies in italy reveal that Corona was present as early as sept 2019 throughout the country.
Very true about Italy. However, pretty sure it first came out of China and this first caused the spread over Italy.
For anyone interested in this about Italy, a video worth watching:
I do find this thread informative, but some of you really need to watch the sources you use for information. AIER is just a right wing think tank
ToothSayer has twice cited a tabloid while speaking with a tone of authority itt as well (The Sun). Not saying every post is without merit, but playing fast and loose with information harms the quality of the thread itself
I prefer sources that are "mostly factual" or higher on that site, as well as not too far outside "left of center" and "right of center"
Reading sources outside of that criteria tends to be a waste of time and misinforming more often than not
I usually read an article and then make up my mind if it is factual or not. I check to see if the article can back up it's claims with reliable sources. I don't need some third party media biaschecker to make up my mind for me. But each to their own.
Here's a bonus article for anyone interested: (the bias police probably wont like it though)
YouTube Dr Campbell did an episode this week sharing an Italian study for lung cancer beginning in Sept 2019 in which they saved blood samples from across Italy and retested for antibodies. Roughly 10% of the volunteers had antibodies for covid as early as Sept.
really surprised this went unresponded to and also surprised this wasn't bigger news given that there's been multiple cases where covid has been found in other countries from blood samples predating the discovery in wuhan
i don't think this necessarily rules out wuhan as the source, and without a doubt wuhan is where it first reached critical mass, but i could definitely see covid incubating for some time under the radar before it gets noticed due to the strong resemblance it has to other diseases
really surprised this went unresponded to and also surprised this wasn't bigger news given that there's been multiple cases where covid has been found in other countries from blood samples predating the discovery in wuhan
i don't think this necessarily rules out wuhan as the source, and without a doubt wuhan is where it first reached critical mass, but i could definitely see covid incubating for some time under the radar before it gets noticed due to the strong resemblance it has to other diseases
3. Using a wrong or faulty test or not applying it properly:
4. Fraud
5. Deliberate contamination by Chinese agents desperate to throw doubt
(giant lol at the bolded)
Take those possibilities, selection biased across the thousands of laboratories in the world - only one has to fail at one of them and publish - and it would be highly probable that in a world with no COVID outside China you'd expect at least one laboratory to report covid in samples before that time.
I don't have any way to prove that covid existed pre wuhan, just a bunch of disparate information from all over the place. I don't want to start a pissing match with you either. If you look at the symptoms and growth of vaping illness, it nearly identical to covid, even down to men being more vulnerable to the disease.
If there is a way, and realistically it could be years before this all shakes out if ever, I would certainly put some money up to back my thesis with some odds. You seem very confident so....
respect...
Quote:
Originally Posted by kustard
I don't have any way to prove that covid existed pre wuhan, just a bunch of disparate information from all over the place. I don't want to start a pissing match with you either. If you look at the symptoms and growth of vaping illness, it nearly identical to covid, even down to men being more vulnerable to the disease.
If there is a way, and realistically it could be years before this all shakes out if ever, I would certainly put some money up to back my thesis with some odds. You seem very confident so....
respect...
I only saw headlines of the vaping deaths but weren't they pretty young people? Like 19yo's dying? Did their parents catch the vaping disease and die?
my chinese not good enough to read and judge the stuff in chinese (i generally assume if i can't find it from a reputable source in english it's fine not reading the original) so i haven't read up on it but i've heard from multople chinese that we were misattributing covid to vaping deaths
Now that you mention it the author does have that "I'm secretly in a neo-nazi gang" look to him. I guess you're right.
I didn't say all that. I simply said that source is not high quality. It is a right wing think tank
It's no different from saying MSNBC is not high quality. Or CNN. Or Fox. They're all not very reliable sources of info
More than likely, the article is based in fact/evidence, but leaves out stuff that doesn't fit the narrative. Or the sources within the source are flawed in some way nobody would notice without further scrutiny
They're all rated "mixed" for a reason
Quote:
Originally Posted by adios
The article didn’t fit into the liberal promoted narrative so naturally liberals need to cancel the article.
Not at all
Quote:
Originally Posted by ToothSayer
TeflonDawg admitting that he outsources his epistemology to mediabiasfactcheck.com is one of the funniest things in this thread.
This is quite hypocritical considering that site has rooted out quite a bit of noise for me and proved quite useful, and you yourself have posted cites from tabloids. I remember specifically The Sun (twice for two separate topics) and The Daily Mail.
There is no need to get antagonistic. I literally said that I'm not saying all your posts are without merit. I've maintained I find value in them for quite a while now. But if you're going to mix in unreliable sources of info and continually repeat them as if they're fact, and with a tone of authority and arrogance, you're only diminishing your own credibility. You can do better than that
Quote:
Originally Posted by bobbyJ
I usually read an article and then make up my mind if it is factual or not. I check to see if the article can back up it's claims with reliable sources.
So do I
Quote:
Originally Posted by bobbyJ
I don't need some third party media biaschecker to make up my mind for me. But each to their own.
I merely provided a source for my own claims. I've found that site to be useful, especially when social media is trying to peddle me news articles, given it's an infinite feedback loop. There really is a lot of bad/incomplete/misleading info out there. That site got me to stop following CNN/MSNBC years ago
That a source is rated "mixed" means just that. There is some good info, but also some bad info, or simply an incomplete picture painted. If you continually post citing a particular source, the only safe assumption is at some point you've posted unreliable and misleading info, even if other cites are perfectly fine
I only saw headlines of the vaping deaths but weren't they pretty young people? Like 19yo's dying? Did their parents catch the vaping disease and die?
I'm not here to convince you. idc. go back and look at the high rates of flu and pneumonia in 2019 and realize that a lot of people get exposed to covid and never show symptoms or don't catch it.
You can explain away older people getting the flu or pneumonia but some cases just don't make sense, so you get vaping illness. Vaping excessively and an otherwise unhealthy lifestyle is more likely to lead to negative covid outcomes even among young people.
Covid is also being used by russia, china, and the us for vaccine diplomacy so this is a highly contested narrative space. This is just my dumb ass opinion/
Willing to back it up $
Could be as simple as self-imposed behavioral change in response to reports of rising cases. Especially in a place as small as North Macedonia it wouldn't surprise me if behavior followed more of a herd-like structure. Reported cases are dropping, "everyone" decides it's safe to go out. Reported cases are rising rapidly, "everyone" stays home. Just a guess though.
I think this is clearly the answer or a substantial part.
Many people cannot learn or adapt without mandate until things touch close to home.
Quote:
Originally Posted by ToothSayer
So your basic theory is that:
- Cross-group close socializing activity drives case soaring, since localized nodes tend to burn/immunize out
- As covid gets bad, cross-group close socializing activity dies down, which combined with local node burnout (if only your family can get it, it burns out after 14 days) leads to a rapid drop in R
- None of this requires lockdown intervention in lots of populations; it's self limiting.
Agreed. But it then follows that if you could get the percent of idiots to follow lockdown instructions you would not need to achieve that peak that naturally scares them into self compliance.
Accepting what you say is proof that lockdowns can and do work.
So the question up front is 'is this new pandemic the new Black Death or Ebola, etc? and we need to not let it peak and die off naturally as people finally commit to voluntary lockdown'
OR
'Since we do not know that answer up front and do not want to hit that peak, are lockdowns justified'.
Clearly you show them here as justified whenever people believe those peaks (cost) are too high.
Another contributer to the cycle data could be that the population has vaguely distinct subsets that get 'their turn' at different times. iirc most case in the first peak in the uk could be traced back to hospitals. Maybe the second was more related to universities going back etc.
What stocks that have been hit due to the pandemic that will likely see a reverse now that we are slowly coming to an end of this pandemic?
Not stocks, but you could probably sell your house at an absurd valuation right now, or real estate you own
A friend of mine sold his home at something like 40% above asking like two days after listing. His plan is to rent a place at the shore for a bit and look for a new place for long term as home prices cool down from the recent spike in values
It is not a reverse, but I expect to see continued pain for the commercial real estate sector.
Across the board most companies seem set to keep a large percentage of their work force working from home.
My brothers company has offices in both Ontario Canada and Arizona and both were set for expansion in 2020 and instead now when the leases are up both will be shrunk substantially. the decision now is that minimal offices will be kept for new hire training and meeting rooms and equipment needs (high volume printer, etc) but once an employee has been trained they will be expected to then work from their home office for their daily needs and only use the office for drop in purposes.
Why? Because his actual production is up, with the work from home they have seen this last year and the cost savings, going to the bottom line are significant.
The giant law firm I deal with has told me they plan to cut their office footprint by at least 30% and give most lawyers the choice to work from home.
You can see in the news all sorts of Head Office businesses giving up their showplace head offices for smaller spaces and sighting work from home.
So I expect a similar decline in commercial real estate portfolio stocks to what we saw with those holding retail and especially Mall real estate. Not as deep as the hit retail took but significant none the less. This will start to be realized once things are back to normal and yet people are not returning to offices like they did prior and then again on lease renewals when you see growing companies downsizing office space.
This is quite hypocritical considering that site has rooted out quite a bit of noise for me and proved quite useful, and you yourself have posted cites from tabloids. I remember specifically The Sun (twice for two separate topics) and The Daily Mail.
No sir, the clown here is 100% you. Your attempt to throw shade actually makes you look dumb.
You have the epistemology of a special needs child; too stupid or lazy to evaluate sources for yourself, you outsource to mediabiasfactcheck.com (I can't stop laughing at that) and (by your own admission) end up with the worthless middle of the road: anything that fits into the bland, narrow, worthless dimensions of mainstream "verified" "unbiased" groupthink. You'd do well to understand Russell:
Quote:
Originally Posted by Bertrand Russell
Science tells us what we can know, but what we can know is little, and if we forget how much we cannot know we become insensitive to many things of very great importance.
That's basically you: wanting the "just the facts, maam", but too philosophically stupid to realize that the unbiased facts shine a light on maybe 1/10th of the real world; the rest is grays and infected by bias and uncertainty, and you have to expose yourself to and navigate the bias and uncertainty competently to both understand what people believe and think and why, and also to have a solid understanding of reality and the facts themselves.
For example, you think the NYT is going to post an article about bats PEEING indiscriminately on scientists in Wuhan? No; it's a serious hard-left paper, and for a good while the China lab theory was a right wing conspiracy theory (as an aside, it's changing now; like I said, left wingers come to believe the same as conservatives eventually; their wits are just 10 months to 10 years slower); it's not even on their radar to do such a thing. Yet the Sun, the tabloid you hate, provided it - it's actually from a preprint accurately summarizing sources which you would know if you weren't suffering from cognitive incapacity in parsing ambiguity and bias, such that you avoid anything that isn't "just the facts, maam". And it's highly relevant; the fact that novel-corona-infected bats frequently attacked and peed on scientists at the lab gives more weight to a lab release than every single article and every single expert ever quoted in the New York Times on this topic.
You see how your epistemology is broken? This is why you write weasel-worded clown takes: the inability to deal with uncertainty and bias competently has made you unable to intelligently navigate the real world of facts and ideas.
Anyway, here's an excerpt from the source preprint paper for the Sun article:
Quote:
Within ~280 meters from the market, there was the Wuhan Center for Disease Control & Prevention (WHCDC) (Figure 1, from Baidu and Google maps). WHCDC hosted animals in laboratories for research purpose, one of which was specialized in pathogens collection and identification 4-6. In one of their studies, 155 bats including Rhinolophus affiniswere captured in Hubei province, and other 450 bats were captured in Zhejiang province4. The expert in collection was noted in the Author Contributions (JHT). Moreover, he was broadcasted for collecting viruses on nation-wide newspapers and websites in 2017 and 20197,8. He described that he was once by attacked by bats and the blood of a bat shot on his skin. He knew the extreme danger of the infection so he quarantined himself for 14 days 7. In another accident, he quarantined himself again because bats peed on him. He was once thrilled for capturing a bat carrying a live tick 8. Surgery was performed on the caged animals and the tissue samples were collected for DNA and RNA extraction and sequencing 4, 5. The tissue samples and contaminated trashes were source of pathogens. They were only ~280 meters from the seafood market. The WHCDC was also adjacent to the Union Hospital (Figure 1, bottom) where the first group of doctors were infected during this epidemic
They literally captured a large variety of bats in the wild with coronaviruses over 12 months, some of which attacked and peed on them as wild animals do, cutting these animals up and discarding waste, interacting with them daily, then putting these viruses into various animals to generate antibodies, and human cell lines (HeLa) to test infectiousness in humans. They also extensively tested cross-species infectivity including in civets, goats, mice and others. Again, this is all in the Nature paper, and not made up.
We know from other published studies that the Wuhan lab was recently doing actual gain of function research on bat derived SARS-like coronavirus to test infectiousness with different spike proteins. So of all the places this outbreak can happen, we have an outbreak of a novel SARS-like coronavirus begin within mere yards of the world's major lab interacting extensively at large scale with novel bat SARS-like coronaviruses. Do the odds on that as a coincidence vs a cause? Then the government that owns that lab went to extreme reputation-harming lengths to silence news of an outbreak and stop anyone investigating the source of the outbreak.
So none of this is made up, and you're just a silly person wasting everyone's time.
Last edited by ToothSayer; 05-08-2021 at 08:34 AM.
Never said any of what you posted was made up. I simply asked for a better source than what you initially provided. The first time I asked you didn't even respond...
You can hurl all the insults you want and go off on all the diatribes you want, it doesn't change the fact that The Sun is a tabloid sold next to gossip magazines at the cashier in drug stores
'China was preparing for a Third World War with biological weapons - including coronavirus - SIX years ago, according to dossier produced by the People's Liberation Army in 2015 and uncovered by the US State Department'.
Yeah. China is basically 1933 Nazi Germany but even smarter. Same expansionist ambitions but far more dangerous outcomes possible (from permanent worldwide 1984 to complete extermination) due to a huge population/economy, technology and the coming rise of robotic and sophisticated molecular weapons, and more sophisticated and patient strategizing unfettered by ideology. It's quite terrifying to consider what they are and will be working on as their technological ability improves, and have no qualms about using.
China has pursued a successful targeted pressure campaign to control the US and plunder their economy. They control most US left wing media and Democrat politicians through Wall Street - they have since 1995 according to their own professor - Trump is the only president ever who hasn't been controlled by China, fund radical leftist groups like Black Lives Matter to sow discord and misdirection, control organizations like the WHO and CNN and EU member states and key Obama/Biden advisors through compromat, blackmail, pressure and bribery, while pieces of trash like TeflonDawg and you think Trump and Fox News is your enemy. You've been mind-****ed by nasty Chinese interests, losers. And they're succeeding. The Chinese laughed their asses off when you voted in a China-compromised woke geriatric in your ignorance, while your left wing newspapers rubbished and downplayed the near certain notion that covid came from a Chinese lab and went on a spree blaming a US president for the outcomes of a virus that China caused and that the US had a middle-of-the-road Western world outcome on. Just think for a second how nuts that is.
You have no idea what's happening or what's coming or how you're being played. It's really sad.
Last edited by ToothSayer; 05-08-2021 at 08:40 PM.
Yeah. China is basically 1933 Nazi Germany but even smarter. Same expansionist ambitions but far more dangerous outcomes possible (from permanent worldwide 1984 to complete extermination) due to a huge population/economy, technology and the coming rise of robotic and sophisticated molecular weapons, and more sophisticated and patient strategizing unfettered by ideology. It's quite terrifying to consider what they are and will be working on as their technological ability improves, and have no qualms about using.
lol i would call this analysis embarrassing if i thought you actually believe all the crap you argue. also what you wrote is basically identical to what all the psychopaths in the us establishment believe, rep or dem. this could have been written by mike pompeo or anthiny blinken
lol i would call this analysis embarrassing if i thought you actually believe all the crap you argue. also what you wrote is basically identical to what all the psychopaths in the us establishment believe, rep or dem. this could have been written by mike pompeo or anthiny blinken
This is standard analysis, so it's not surprising that other minds come to the same conclusion. Thanks for proving you're an idiot. Discussing this is like arguing with Brass earlier in the thread, except the timeframe is 5-10 years for manifesting rather than 1-2 months.
If we went back to 1933 the same complete scorn was heaped on the notion that Hitler/Nazi Germany was dangerous. Churchill actually became an outcast in Germany in the 30s for repeatedly warning of Hitler, such was the loser groupthink at the time. Churchill was called crazy, paranoid, a warmonger by the educated classes for warning of Hitler. People don't understand the long term consequences of major shifts in demographics, power and technology well. Nor do free people understand the will of autocrats or communists well. China is far more dangerous than 1933 Hitler by any analysis you do. And they're not even being circumspect about it; they're openly showing their ambitions in 20 different ways.
It's sad that people are so clueless as yourself that this isn't obvious to you.
Which part isn't true?
1. China is working on next level weapons for aggressive dominance
2. China is doing extremely rapid, deep and expensive expansion of their military for which there is no point for defense
3. China has waged and is waging major economic war against the US, including one for technological parity then supremacy.
4. The Chinese leadership is psychopathic enough to genocide its own people, mass imprison and sterilize them, use them for organ harvesting, deny them normal freedoms
5. Many Chinese officials have the openly stated goal of invading Taiwan, and turning Japan into a client state, and more.
6. China is expanding its territory aggressively and violating all kinds of international norms.
7. The Chinese economy and technological knowhow is rapidly approaching the West, all in the hands of a single dictator
8. Chinese is creating 1984 level blanket surveillance networks with complete tracking and punishment systems already in place in some cities, and expanding it country-wide
9. The country with the most advanced tech and manufacturing economy in 10 to 20 years has the means to take over the world, due to the rise of robotics, AI and new technologies like hypersonic weapons.
10. China aggressively invaded and took Tibet and tortured and genocided (through mass rape and murder) the inhabitants
11. China aggressively invaded and took Xinjiang and are currently brainwashing, torturing, sterilizing and organ harvesting the people there:
But according to Joe T's, who apparently is such a psychopath he loves all this, China is suddenly going to be lovely as they grow far more powerful and capable technologically and militarily. The suggestion that China is as evil as Nazi Germany in 1933 - and more dangerous due to their size, aggression and what new technologies will enable - is "embarrassing". Weird take, bro.