hahaha.

KO punch delivered.

What? No?

I'll again answer for Tooth.


'The above just shows how i was right prior and am also right now. You just have to consider 'caveat', 'pivot', 'spin' and all will make sense as I ...'



Again, Trump will admit being wrong long before Tooth does.

How about the idea that the measures we've taken against Covid are actually more effective vis-a-vis the flu, which is resulting in a flu R reduction from its usual level of about 1 to far below that?

You made me howl laughing, thanks

Correct! https://www.rnz.co.nz/national/progr...ue-to-lockdown

The article you cited dismisses your theory.

Also, the far more important # (than even COVID deaths) is the surplus death number this year: which is higher everywhere despite massive reduction in transportation related fatalities.

Just do the opposite of what doctors and surgeons do! (Im astounded daily by the lack of critical thinking and logic of the general public)

Exactly. This stuff isnt that hard folks!

Proportion of people in England with Covid antibodies has fallen, study says

https://www.theguardian.com/world/20...len-study-says

4. We plod along as we have for 8 months.

Your #1 & #2 are completely infeasible. Enacting #2 would lead to social disorder.

I could see various states enacting short-term lockdowns if their hospital systems get overwhelmed.

Hopefully, we can get JOE BUX by then.

Does anyone have actual data on the sources of death during lockdown? I would guess that there are fewer traffic deaths so far this year than usual, but it wouldn't shock me if traffic deaths were on pace for a normal year. Causes could be people driving with masks (on their face or dangling from the rear-view), more people who wouldn't normally drive on the roads because they want to avoid public transportation, more pedestrians and cyclists on the road because they want to avoid public transportation.

But a bigger question to me is not whether there is a reduction in traffic deaths, but if the lockdowns have more than made up for the reduction by causing excess deaths in other ways. The lockdown has dissuaded many people from going to the hospital for early cancer detection or other illnesses, and these people may have ended up dying as a result. Many places have forgone non-emergency procedures during the pandemic.

There are also far fewer people exercising. I never go to the gym anymore, and I'm sure there are millions in the same boat. I doubt many deaths will occur just this year from people staying home and gaining weight and losing some lung and heart function, but it could be in the thousands.

I would also expect to see an uptick in suicides and overdoses from the lockdown, as people are shut off from friends and family and their normal routines. That could be in the thousands as well.

I acknowledge that there should be many fewer deaths from communicable disease (although the reluctance to get treated in a hospital as patients would have otherwise complicates this figure). Whether deaths saved from traffic and contagion outweigh deaths added from self-harm, sloth, and refused medical treatment isn't clear to me.

It will take a long time to realize what the net impact of the pandemic has been. In a few years we will see that 2020 caused "blips" in all of the mortality data graphs. Some will be positive blips, some will be negative blips. Some impacts will never be known but there will be 10,000 research papers published about every conceivable effect that this virus has had on our lives (most of which will be garbage).

Do you really think a novel disease that has killed 230K people in 8 months (USA) is not responsible for the lions share?

A 45% increase over a 5 year rolling average is not a blip.

This is a non-sequitur to my comment to Godgers' post. His implication was that the excess death numbers will underestimate the true number killed by COVID (because the numbers will be partially offset by a reduction in traffic fatalities). I'm skeptical of that. For example, say there are 300k excess deaths at year's end. Godger's might say it's evidence that 310k people died of COVID since 10k were saved from traffic accidents. zpluz might say only 290k people died of COVID and the other 10k died of lockdown-induced health conditions. It's a lot more complicated than that, as I described in my post, but that's the framework that my post is written in. The assumption that I must mean that most of the excess deaths are not from COVID is entirely your creation (although zplusz may actually think that—I don't know).

Sure, here you go:



US is doing far better and is nowhere near "1-2 weeks behind" Europe. R is far smaller in the US than Europe and doesn't appear to be rising rapidly.

And the European real numbers are actually worse because of the incredibly high positivity rates (far higher than the US) and overwhelmed testing.

Your snark in the "so predictable" comment is pretty amazing given that you're dead wrong.
This is just incredible delusion. Europe "acted" with mask mandates and they did jack ****. Europe started in a MUCH better position (levels 1/10th of the US) in every way thanks to summer basically stopping the virus dead in temperate zones. Not to mention a better hand in centralized laws, centralized healthcare, ability to close borders, etc. And they botched it horribly. Now you're touting your leaders over the US, which is doing much better that Europe while being dealt a much worse hand? Just total delusion.

Europe will bring it back down by caging their people like animals and burdening their children with crippling debt and lost opportunities, but to what end? Winter hasn't even started and there are six months to go of increasing infectiousness and declining immune systems. European leaders have botched this far worse than any US leader has or would.

And if we "plod along" with the already high base line of cases now rising in almost all of the US what do you think happens to the health care system?

We are only at the very start of the temp changes across the country and we already see so many health care systems creaking and beginning to crack. They are looking to alternative facilities to house the sick. They are talking triage decisions on the ethics of who to treat and who to allow to die. THey are making arrangements for mass body storage.

All the while people with other health ailments keep dying in increasing numbers as they cannot access their care due to hospitals consumed with covid.

This is following exactly the trend of NYS and what we saw there in Feb/March in the first phase.

So what, beside us being much better at the therapeutics and treatments do you see as the big defining difference?

And note that the therapeutics and treatments mean nothing if the hospital systems are overwhelmed and you cannot get timely treatment. Suddenly you start to see a 3%-6% fatality rate trending again.

Is this type of thing a "Nothing to see here" moment?

Are people in complete denial about what this means if/when the ALTERNATE facilities and health care workers themselves hit their ceiling and there are just no more resources (physical space or persons) to pull in?























Kid almost dies of kidney failure as they have no hospital beds to put him in. He is shopped from one to a second and finally a third hospital due to no beds.




All this reeks of people not wanting to think the worst and recognize the threat and thus just ignoring it.

If I don't look, the bad thing won't happen.

Go to your actual local hospital and tell me what % full it is.

ZOMG BUT MEDIA SAYS CASES ZOMGGGGGGGGGGGG

In Quebec 91.5% of the deaths are ages 70 and up. 73% of deaths are ages 80 and up.

A lot of these olds are dying a few years younger than they would have.

This really is a nothing burger death wise for the rest of us.

This is basically the answer.

80% of the deaths from Covid in USA are ages 65+. 70ish% for the 75+.

So as long as young people are getting mass infected it almost doesn't matter.

Old people and immunocompromised have to just stay at home for another 7 months.

Pretty much.

Old people and immunocompromised young are the only ones at risk of actually dying.

Disclaimer: This is an anecdote. I'm simply just sharing what she told me.

Yesterday I spoke with a friend who is an ER physician in a US southern state.

She said the protocols in place now have made significant and meaningful strides in lowering the death rate for certain hospitalized groups of people vs when this first started. When/when not to do certain procedures (i.e ventilators/intubation).

She said the death rate for a 25yr hasn't really lowered due to their improved protocols but for a 55yr old it has.

She also mentioned that if you get Covid, immediately start taking aspirin, assuming you can take aspirin and don't have a condition that prevents you from doing so.

So it is your view that the 19 year old kid who almost died of kidney issues when turned away from 2 successive hospitals was just being f*cked with by the hospitals?

They had the rooms available but said for sh*ts and giggles lets send him away?

If this whole pandemic has taught me one thing, it's that the WHO and Chinese are a good sources of honest, quality information.