As America heads to its third peak, one that exceeds the prior two, I will offer this prediction if the death rate follows, as we know it does.

And it is less of a prediction than it is a statement to mark my words now (and Tooths) as i am saying you will see his rhetoric shift.

We now have cities and States abandoning contact tracing due to the impossibility of it due to so many new cases and instead calling for citizens to self govern and self report. With that high baseline of cases now moving upwards the systems are again becoming stressed to the point of requiring severe emergency measures or risking breaking.

So Tooth's ever changing, ever caveated position will move from the 'US being in great shape' to 'the US being in great shape relatively'.


He will cherry pick locales in Europe and around the world saying 'but they are worse and the US is not them, thus the US is doing great'.

I just want to point this out for bookmarking so that those inclined to be duped by him will not again be. You won't fall for his caveating of 'both my contrary positions are correct if you only would accept my caveat, after the fact.

I'll bookmark this and bump this when it comes as you can mark my words that is coming.

I think I've broken Cuepee and OAFK11.
If I get it and my gf doesn't, I'll have 500,000 cases per million in my household.

Why would this happen? It didn't happen last time. It went in waves through each area, leaving them now partially immune. First the NE, then the south, now the center. As it burns out of the center it should move back to the (partially inoculated) NE.

As I've said winter will suck for the US but it won't be anything like Europe's mess. When it's burned through 20% of your population slowly and organically you're just in a way better spot.

Crazy that these sparsely populated states have nearly that case rate.

They must have LIBS running their states.

Actually population size vis a vis population density is Highly Relevant.

My guess is Friday prayers

Complacency.

Don't worry though, like I always say, we're rounding the corner guys.

lol dude are you serious? every single year on that graph peaks well before april, which starts at the end of week 13 or beginning of week 14.

it's clear the flu hasn't peaked in april once since 1982 (https://www.cdc.gov/flu/about/season/flu-season.htm)

your posts are way more valuable when you're contributing new information instead of wasting your time trying to prove something you previously said that's easily verifiably wrong

The correct answer to all of Tooths claims about April and flu is:

So what?

Its just a total canard.

So far Sars2 peak in USA was July 23rd.

Trying to build a case of what Sar2 does in Autumn on what Flu does in April is obviously total castles in the sand, and even if you exaggerated that effect ten times worse than Tooth has aptemted to do, its still absolutely moot.

Tooth has spent page after page now making a clear and obvious moot argument.

Because it only went through 9% of the population, and in a single fast wave?

The US is very different. NY for example has 25% immunity rates (3x Belgium), with the worst hit suburbs such as Corona, NY having 50% and Queens having >33%. That's a very different game than 8%. The places that had summer burn through (the south, basically) had months of controlled burn through the highest spreader nodes. They're 20% immune, but the slow organic burn means that the effective immunity rate is likely closer to 40%. This is a mainstream virologist view.

So there's a big difference between Europe and Belgium and the US. You're seeing that in the growth rates - US is maybe 1.1-1.2 growth rate (easily brought back without economy and life destroying lockdowns), which Europe is 1.6 (it needs to destroy normal life and business to not go crazy with corona).

It's playing out exactly as I've said. Cucks gonna be cucks though.

What the **** are you talking about? US cases peaked in late March and were only stopped by harsh lockdown. The peak in July was less than half of that. The summer wave was with life mostly open and normal, and it was still less than half of the first wave. In the temperate zones where flu is highly seasonal, it was a tiny fraction.

No, you're just stupid. There are multiple mechanisms of spread such droplets, aerosols, non-masked prolonged close contact such as kissing, sex, family, sharing a house, talking for an extended period, hand transfer (which is a big part of flu spread), partying. Masks appear to offer some protection against the bolded and not any of the rest. Absolute humidity is about 20x winter right now so droplets don't go far, and cloth masks are useless for aerosols. In winter droplet spread in public is likely a significant part of spread, multiplied many times by the fact that have you peak coughing and sneezing from the flu in March/April.

NY first wave hit 5000 per million per day, and was on the way to going way higher if not for harsh lockdown. Doesn't seem unreasonable that a more sparsely populated state going through a first wave and not harshly locked down would have 1/5 of that.

As for Dem run states, you really want to have this discussion? DPM top 10:

New Jersey 1,846
New York 1,725
Massachusetts 1,426
Connecticut 1,284
Louisiana 1,252
Rhode Island 1,111
Mississippi 1,088
District Of Columbia 910
Arizona 806
Illinois 765

Which 5 states forced infected seniors back into nursing homes, and how many were Dem run? (hint: all 5)

It's a dumb discussion that you'll also lose badly, so why have it?

I'm from Brussels/Belgium .

Please note that:
*In August, our figures started rising slightly. Nobody gave a **** and was just very tired of the virus.
*At the same time some populist ****s became popular in the press saying that we were letting too much be determined by the virus, and that we should try to live with the virus, not stop our lives (sounds like the orange man doesn't it?).
*This resulted in the government announcing major easing of restrictions at the end of August (language of the government was actually: we used to tell you what you are allowed to do, now you are allowed to do everything except for the things we are about to say you can't do!).
*1st of September is back to school for many countries in Western Europe.
So we had the genius idea of doing all of this together 1st of September: (1) everyone back to school for the first time since March, (2) restrictions at their lowest point since March and (3) because schools were back open and the rules in place allowed it, the majority of employers also significantly increased the amount of required presence at the office to its hhighest point since March.

This resulted in a rapid increase in cases in the poorest parts of Belgium, where social isolation is harder because of worse living conditions, more prevalence of jobs that require social contact, more reliance on public transport,...

From there it spread to the rest of Belgium because Belgium is tiny and people generally live everywhere here, and travel everywhere easily in the country if you own a car. And governments took action way too slowly.

People have finally started panicking here a few days ago. A few weeks too late. The graphs are actually scary, you can see a lot of them here:

https://epistat.wiv-isp.be/covid/covid-19.html

People in ICU is currently at 632 and rising rapidly, vs a peak of 1285 in wave 1 (49%). Our capacity is close to 2k if we stop all non-urgent care and healthcare workers don't collapse, which is luckily still far off. We do have one of the highest number of ICU beds per capita vs rest of Europe, so some European peers might be less off.

Also wouldn't say we're the only epicenter in Europe right now.
Czechia statistics are still worse than Belgium, and regions in France, Spain and UK are very close to ours. There are cities in France & UK that have almost as many inhabitants as Belgium.

And we are also testing a ton more compared to the rest of Europe, we'll be passing USA & Russia in the next few days in total tests per capita.

The wave is in a phase in Europe where number of new cases is again not the most valuable metric. Testing strategies & capacities are vastly different across regions again. And countries are at positive rates varying between 10% and 35% again.
It's all about deaths & people in hospital again. I am certain Belgium is also in top 5 worst-off countries there, too, though. After not learning enough from wave 1 .

Peak of CPM in USA was in Summer. Yes there was more testing, that is moot.




The point is that Sars2 behaves differently than Flu and placing your entire hypothesis on how survivable it is in air of any vector specifically on exaggerated claims of what flu does in April is clearly nonsense.

Sars2 was also able to convert a significant amount of those positive cases into deaths with a CFR of ~3.5% over the summer.

Again something that Flu would never do.

To keep attempting to hoist a hypothesis based on flu behaviour in Spring is absurd behaviour.

If Several countries over take DPM of USA, they are only recapturing a lead they held for months and would have never got close to giving up if USA had behaved like European countries over the Summer.

For example, the USA has been ahead of UK DPM for less than a month. Italy just over a month.

Dates at which USA cumulative DPM overtook European counterparts.

EU: May 20th.
France: Aug 3rd.
Italy: Sep 16th.
UK: Sep 28th.

Italy and UK spent the whole summer with a higher DPM total than USA. France 2 thirds of Summer.

Important to remember that they had a much lower CPM over this period.

Yes, this is what happened in the UK.

1. Autumn Starts X Kids back to school X Maximum Opening X Maximum relaxing = ****ed by October.

It did kick off fairly quickly, rule of 6 was in by Sep 14th and pubs shut at ten by 24th.

I'm sorry, you're not a serious person. There was very little testing in the first wave (there was no capacity), and because there was very little testing back then, that means summer was higher? I'm laughing.
I'm not attempting to hoist it on that. You're just choosing to focus on that. The data on masks says what it says. I choose to follow the data. The speculation why the data says what it says is separate from what it says.

Czechia didn't follow the data on masks (that they're worthless/net harmful in current weather), and look where they are. The health minister just resigned for his rank idiocy (caused by the logic of people like you) saying the masks were "very effective" and thinking they would help and then waiting to see if they did. Now they're in hard lockdown with hospitals overflowing because of the health's minister's false beliefs.

If masks didn't exist I think it's highly probably Europe would be better off right now, because the false sense of security they create (thanks to idiot views such as "masks are very effective" when they're worthless in current weather) has allowed cases to spread like crazy. The European countries that don't use masks are currently doing better than those that do.

CPM in USA peaked in Summer=FACT. (The point of this FACT being that even if you increased testing, you would not find an Influenza CPM of that magnitude in Summer)

You claiming masks work in Spring not Autumn for C19=FACT

You attempting to prove this hypothesis by referring to flu behaviour in Spring = FACT.

You are a backpedaling pivoting void of intellectual honesty = Most true thing on this page.

I'll answer for Tooth.

'But...but "cumulative"!'

The cumulative number is at its peak so that means the most people at that time have caught it. Using my brilliant deduction skills that should mean the most people then are at risk of catching it in the future.

Oh wait, you are introducing new, less biassed data that shows transmission rates plummet seasonally and thus transmission is actually in decline and way lower despite the cumulative number I pointed at. Well that can be answered by 'caveat' ,'BS', 'spin' and 'backpedaling'.

See I was right in both instances. Both are accurate. Oh you dumb libs.

-----

You will see Trump admit to a wrong long before you see Tooth do the same. He will duck, weave, backpedal and try to ignore posts like yours when wrong.

Tbf I'd look at excess death statistics in New York, I am sure their excess death-adjusted DPM is way above the official statistic.

And I remember the last time I compared profile of who died in NY was way different than who died in Belgium, average age of C19-deaths was way lower in NY. USA population is significantly more unhealthy and will have a higher mortality rate.

I didn’t know the Dakotas had 1/5 of the density of NYC.

What’s that you say? NY has 37.5 times the population density of the Dakotas?

You keep losing every time, Tooth. Just stop trying.

This is just sad.
Let's see how much population density matters:



Zero signal. The world (and epidemiology) is more complex than your idiot intuitive notions (informed by your idiot political notions, you couldn't care less about data and reality and reasoning) would suggest. There's a surprising lack of correlation between density and corona.

It's the same in the US:

Reality is often not what you think it is. All of the things you think matter for corona, informed by your political biases rather than data and reasoning, are simply not true. If you were smarter, Europe would have already made you rethink your assumptions and beliefs.

You moron.

More densely populated areas are:
1. More highly educated
2. Therefore, follow expert advice (masks/distancing) better
3. Thererfore, have a much lower positivity rate than they would if they adopted President ****** and Tooth’s approach.

If the Dakotas and other dumbass rural areas actually distanced and masked they would have almost NO cc-19 positives.

But your dumbass thinks that ****ing POPULATION DENSITY as a variable doesn’t affect transmission of a goddam CONTAGION?

Reality is often not what you think it is.

You utter piece of ****.

You don’t even understand THE NUANCE of your goddam graph idiot.