Yes track and trace is definitely the key. And I'll bet you that's dependent on population compliance and intelligence more than anything. Take NY. The population saw how serious it was, many know people who died, but compliance with track and trace was 35%. 35% despite the team's best efforts and the majority of the heavily Democrat area knowing how serious covid is. What the hell are the leaders supposed to do with that? It's an impossible situation.

Even Germany is at the brink of losing control of track and trace at this point.

Whatever you guys do, stop using UK and Sweden as arguments why the Europe death rate is high regardless of all the restrictions.

It is the common opinion of everyone who is not uninformed or crazy that both these countries completely botched their C19-responses, and are horrible examples. You still have Belgium, France, Italy, Spain, Netherlands,... don't worry!

And all of those also all ****ed up in multiple ways. Enough fun to be had with those!

UK could have very easily handled this, it would be 10x easier than USA if they tried. Only their biggest cities would be challenging, but nothing impossible or close to as difficult as USA/mainland Europe.

This is a fair point. I'm sure others will dig deeper, however, something like 90% of people in the UK fail to self-isolate after being instructed to do so by track and trace.

I think this is wide of the mark though. One of the reasons (perhaps the main reason) the UK outbreak was so bad was how widely the virus was seeded by people flying back from ski holidays. This meant that any kind of containment was virtually impossible.

Wow. Twitter just blocked Trump's covid advisor for saying that population-level mask wearing doesn't work/help with corona. How insane that a qualified doctor can't weigh into a public policy debate without being censored by some loser with an arts degree. We have large amounts of evidence from Europe right now that masks do jack **** at best and are probably net harmful. This was the state of the science in February (hence the WHO and CDC advising against them for months) and was only changed by some more recent studies that were essentially data snooping/confouding variables from speed/seriousness of response. Europe settles that question now - population mask wearing is bullshit, at least in non winter weather. The published science is always months behind the data.

There's so many things but slow test results and failure to contact people are two obvious problems that are destroying much of the value of all the testing.

Cui bono?

The position that the US is uniquely unable to deal with covid due to ... reasons, is patently stupid.

It is the type of rationalization that certain people tell themselves solely to excuse the fact that America did not try due to a certain leader's failure to believe it would be politically harmful to him.

If a US Potus armed with the CDC created a Governors Round Table at the onset of the virus and had the scientists lead and then the POTUS affirm, no Governor is going to ignore it and go it alone and ignore it all.

Governors, like any politician are risk adverse. To go it alone and risk being the only State with a catastrophic result is too high a risk. Better to follow along, even begrudgingly, and if stuff goes wrong you can blame them. The Governors would go along.

With the CDC, POTUS and Governors all singing from the same song sheet you would also get the mayors too. Again the fear of being the only one wrong and pointed at would be too high.

^^^
If in fact the hypothesis of the 'US could never do better' is true, every Nation that would like to see the US fall should focus solely on their bio weapons programs. Knowing the US and the US only is completely defenseless and the entire country would be wiped out with the right mutated virus (ebola with the Covid transmission profile) means you don't waste a dollar on nukes or anything else. Pour all that money into bio weapons and easily wipe the US out. Done.

More fantasy from a guy who understands nothing about the world.

You basically have three choices, as Europe is proving right now:

1. Lock down hard, stay locked down, shut your border (forcing quarantine) and destroy your economy and hopefully keep corona deaths low if you can sustain that for 12-18 months.

2. Stay open as much as possible and manage it such that R doesn't get out of hand and hospitals don't overwhelm

3. Do a hybrid of (1) and (2) and have potentially the worst of both worlds - a far worse winter wave and far more time spent in lockdown and more economic damage for a similar death rate.

Europe is current doing (3). We'll see how it plays out in deaths vs economic damage once this is all done. Right now the US is doing a lot better in quality adjusted life years and it's not even close.

Twitter showing signs of at least attempting to do something about the mid-pandemic politically motivated death-cult messaging coming from the Trump administration. Too bad 2+2 hasn't the will to curtail damaging posters like toothsayer.

My issue with Tooth is his now exposed cartoonish backpedaling on almost every position or post he has taken prior. He takes absolute and strong positions in so many areas, as if unassailable, and then when they prove wrong he tries to caveat them or pretend there was some nuance and that now explains why he was right then and is right now with two very contrary statements on the same position.

I demonstrated the backpedaling upthread on his constant changing views and arguments re mask wearing. Early on there was no doubt they worked and were key. Full Stop. But Trump could never get the dirty Dem's to comply thus the failure.

Later he waffled on whether masks would ever work due to ..'reasons', when it became a point of criticism against Trump.

He is a man, searching for rationalizations to prop up his failed arguments and in doing so often ends up looking clownish in his spin.

I've never backpedaled on anything. That you can't understand what's being said and make up what you think I'm saying isn't backpedaling. And I've been right about nearly everything since before this thread was broken out of the 2020 trading thread.

And my arguments are all winning in real world data, in case you haven't noticed.

aha. Continue to wear the clown shoes Tooth as an increasing number of people call you out for your blatant reversals and attempts to spin your way into pretending they were not.

Never change as we all love seeing you on your trike.

When are you going to **** all over him for being all in on T cell immunity and an extremely low HIT?

Absolutely, the guy is a clown. I mean he's jsb + being right on masks. Which is better than jsb but still scoring high on the clownmeter. It's fascinating seeing how stupid well credentialed experts are and how child-level incompetent authorities are throughout this whole affair. There are large communities of people well credentialed and trusted with public health who can't do basic reasoning.

Arts degree moderators on Twitter censoring long time Stanford head doctors and presidential advisers because they put forth an opinion on to the (wrong and self-contradicting just in the last six months) current partial orthodoxy on masks is nuts though. Like legit nuts.

Actually I am not a believer in masks either, a position you mocked me for much earlier ITT before you changed your mind about it.

So if nothing else, I was right about masks (according to you.) And I was right about IFR (according to the scientific community.) T cell immunity is still up in the air, but we are a few weeks away from getting a pretty good answer on that issue. However, I am liking my position more and more as each day goes by.

Masks were a great idea early in winter during flu season (you were wrong about that). That's well indicated - those that instituted masks early had a lot fewer deaths.

Masks are worthless in summer and for very prolonged periods.

You weren't right about IFR. You have never been right about IFR. As for the T Cell/low herd immunity theory, it's a clown theory and stone dead. Every time you say you still believe in it I have an involuntary cringe.

This thread was started in late February, but I probably didn't start posting in it until mid-March at the earliest, which is hardly winter. So that comment is somewhat odd even for you.

As far as IFR, you can claim you won all you want, but you lost. And anyone who thinks differently doesn't know how to use Google or read basic scientific studies.

T cell immunity? That's an unanswered question. We will see. But it makes me somewhat happy that the White House thinks you are the idiot in this case. And the people whose position you support are the ones whom you normally have so much disdain for. So it's an interesting spot you find yourself in. It must sting to have to crap all over the president that you are always propping up.

We were discussing the IFR of Western countries. The study you linked showed was that IFR is about 0.6% globally. The average age of the world is 29. The average age in Western countries is about 40. Your study actually proved me correct, but like your T Cell theory, you're too stupid to understand basic concepts.

Here are some more recent studies on IFR:

Here's another one:

And another more recent major study in the British Medical Journal:
You continue to be an absolute waste of time who not only can't do basic reasoning, but now lies about victory as well. IFR is absolutely 1% in developed countries as long as hospitals don't overwhelm.

On top of these studies, antibody testing bears out 1% death rate across all populations and states as well. The dataset showing 1% IFR is large, diverse and conclusive.

Your T Cell herd immunity theory is dead. It was dead the minute it was pronounced. You're gone full nutjob truther on this T Cell herd immunity which everyone in this thread knows is disproven and immunologists heap scorn on.
What the hell are you talking about? Unlike you, Max Cut, Cuepee, tggitgity and other assorted zero content posters, I don't have a side and I only care about what the data says. If the president's advisor is an absolute moron on a topic I'll say so and just did. If the president causes needless deaths with bad policy I'll say so. If his policies or statements made little to no difference I'll say so. The only thing I care about is what's true and correct according to the data. I'm a scientist before all things - it's my training. Politics is of little interest to me when it comes to corona. Although I do enjoy watching emotional and tribal politics morons running face first into data and facts.

Umm, I think if we polled the studio audience, they would disagree with this statement.

But whatever, You were wrong on IFR, and then changed the parameters. You were wrong on masks, so you changed the season. You may or may not be wrong on T cell immunity, but you are wrong that the issue has been decided. The White House isn't alone on an island in its thinking. It has hundreds of highly trained scientists, including people who have been at the forefront of fighting RNA-based diseases for decades, on its side. This isn't some crackpot theory, it's rooted in basic immunology.

And the people on the other side of the equation have a good reason to dismiss it. If they are wrong, they needlessly caused trillions of dollars of economic damage and countless deaths due to the halting of the treatment and diagnosis of other diseases.

But, this isn't some esoteric argument. There is an answer coming down the tracks in a few weeks. Either the US daily death toll is going to triple or it isn't. There's not a lot of grey area here. If we don't start seeing 2k deaths a day in 10 weeks, the national and international discussion about this virus is going to shift dramatically. The same is true for Sweden. Either they got it right or they got it wrong. And we will know shortly which it is.

God you're an insufferable fool. I have never changed the parameters. Here is me on March 28th:
This is exactly how it played out. I have literally been consistent the entire time that we're talking about Western developed (older) populations for 1% IFR.

The seasons matter, you idiot. In the middle of winter/early spring flu season (coughing, sneezing) with windows closed and almost no sunlight sterilization of air and surfaces, droplet spread is huge and anything that can lower it can help a lot. In summer where droplet spread is so insignificant that flu can't even reproduce and dies out, masks are probably a net negative. Stranger transmission in summer is almost non existent outside of places like bars (where masks aren't worn anyway) and it's spread nearly entirely by close prolonged social contact in which people don't use masks. The distancing and banning of big crowds in place in most areas also furthers reduces the usefulness of masks.

It's an entirely different transmission scenario early in the first weeks of major pandemic spread in winter as opposed to when partially distanced in summer.

It's a crackpot theory because it's at odds with all the data before it was even proposed, and disproved extensively by new data since it's been proposed.

I'll grant you that.

Another pronouncement that if X happens by Y, your theory is proven. It's like you have a working memory of 2 items and can't do multifactorial analysis. Just incredible.

I was talking with a friend today about a hypothetical.

What if, rather than primarily causing mortality in the elderly, it was primarily killing young children instead?

How would the US react to a first wave of young kids dying back in March, and would we have allowed it to reach 215k in 8 months? 300k by the end of the year?

What percent of the population would follow suggested health measures in that scenario?

What steps would the public be on board with, no matter the societal and economic hardships?

The answer of course is that it would be unrecognizably different. There would be no such thing as anti-mask, anti-vax. There would be no length the public would not go to in order to stop the spread.

But, I guess, old people?

Tooth is starting to remind me more and more of Peter Schiff. Neither can admit when they're wrong, so they'll just move the goal posts, add in some nuance, and pretend they were right all along.

Example: Peter Schiff won't admit that the QE done in response to the 2008 financial crisis didn't lead to hyper inflation. He just says his call was "early" and that the inflation moved to other things (like asset prices) and is coming "any day now."

My contribution to the thread. I live in Idaho and own rentals in Washington state (I work there 3 days a week) it's crazy how different the strategies to deal with covid are, it's legit like living in 2 different worlds.

I went to Church last night, maybe 1,000ish people, and 2 people were wearing a mask. I go to walmart in Idaho, and maybe 30-40% are wearing masks this month. I go to Lowes in Washington and 99% are wearing masks (last lowes trip I only saw 1 customer not wearing a mask..and it wasn't me lol).

The businesses with my vending machines in them in Washington are getting DESTROYED!!!! My vending machines in Idaho businesses, are definitely significantly lower in 2020 compared to 2019 for September, but they're starting to come back for sure.

My opinion: Covid was scary as ****. We didn't know what % of people would die, what % would be hospitalized, what % would have long term effects, etc. etc.

But now we know. And it's pretty much only the old and sick that are at risk. Do we really want to destroy our society so 92 year old grandma can live until 93? Why not just have her quarantine and the rest of us get on with life (granted with a slightly increased chance of dying/getting sick, but that's life, **** happens).

I just don't think all of this is worth it anymore. We know more now, we can make better estimations, and look, over 200K people have died from covid in 2020, that sucks. But millions die every year from cancer/car wrecks/heart attacks/old age/suicide/etc. **** happens, it's no need to destroy economy over it.

For those wondering, I pulled my daughter from school before her school shut down. I wore a mask in Idaho (and disposable gloves) before it was mandated. But now that the information is clearer, and new information has come to light, I go to Church, I go to jui jitsu, I hang out with people (I adjusted my response based on the information, something I see few others doing...most are stuck in their ways) And if I get it, I get it. And if I die, I die. Amor Fati. (the risk is worth the higher quality of life) The odds are super slim (imo I'm at 1 in 200 of dying from covid)....worth it imo to get back to normal. Even in 2019 my odds of dying were 1 in 500ish. So sure I'm slightly more likely to die in 2020 because of 1 in 500ish + 1 in 200ish...but oh well.

What do you number crunchers think abt brazil? They seem to be trending in the right direction, but idk if it is a fluke, wrong info or actually good news. I spend half my year there 3 months at a time. Back in march I pushed my sept flight to end of dec, and have just pushed it to end of april 2021. Any insight appreciated