It's not my theory. I just parrot what experts I happen to listen to say. And to me their theories make sense.

Also, your take that T cells aren't relevant to a theory about T cells is interesting to say the least.

Finally, I have looked for anyone in the scientific community sharing your opinion that an uptick of cases in NYC is definitive proof that the prevalent T cell theory being put forth by many scientists is incorrect. I can't find a single one who has stated this publicly. So are you saying that you are several steps ahead of the entire scientific community? Or is there a possibility that you have badly interpreted data in a field in which you have no basic understanding?

I posted before I saw this. If you want more information on T cells as they relate to covid, follow this guy on twitter.

https://twitter.com/ProfKarolSikora

He was one of the first to propose this theory and his twitter feed has all the relevant info.

Also, apologies for the derail. I will desist.

https://www.cnn.com/2020/09/23/polit...&utm_term=link

Oh look, as I've been saying all along. Trump turned his task force into sycophants and they tried to "work with him". This has been Trump's show all along, just like everything else.

There's no common intellectual ground. jsb is simply wrong and he can't fathom the very clear reasons why. The dispute was completely isolated in my last post.

Theory 1: There's a T Cell response to corona in 40-50% of people
Me: Sure.

Theory 2: We can extrapolate from this that 40-50% of people are naturally immune/wont' be affected by corona
Me: The evidence against this is overwhelming

Theory 3: We can extrapolate from this that 15-20% of the population getting corona will confer herd immunity
Me: The evidence against this is overwhelming.

Theory 4 (in August before the surge): The reason we saw the flatline in Europe and the peaking in other areas was this herd immunity in (3)
September: Nope

When I presented this evidence - which destroys the theories above - jsb didn't even understand or comment on it, instead attacking me. He has now just admitted that he merely parrots twitter. If we want Twitter we'll go to Twitter, jsb.

jsb bringing this all here from Twitter (assuming he's accurately quoting these guys), just shows what absolute morons plenty of experts are. Twitter does amplify it due to selection bias for interesting/wrong theories that make people feel good, but still. There's no excuse for this level of anti-science, anti-data, anti-basic-epistemology theorizing which is so absurdly wrong that no functioning brain would have considered it likely for more than a few seconds.

There's nothing to discuss. It's over. jsb is simply wrong in the way a child is wrong about Santa Claus, and he can't understand it. The data is overwhelmingly, conclusively against propositions 2 and 3 and 4. I've laid out some of why in earlier posts. <shrugs>

The link doesn't support your Trump Derangement Syndrome claims.

Herd immunity strategy is a mainstream scientific strategy employed by numerous countries, from Sweden to the UK. Birx doesn't want to follow that strategy and the lead of the task force does, so she's leaking her frustration to the press.

The thing is, letting it burn through the healthy over the summer while people have freedoms and a functioning economy is the correct response at this point. We've seen this play out successfully in Texas, Arizona, and Florida among others, which remained open and then peaked and declined - with a low death rate. Those states and many others are nicely set up for winter now without having to destroy their economies to contain a winter wave.

https://journals.plos.org/plosmedici...l.pmed.1003346

The study that cites 1/5 remain asymptomatic. In it they mention there is evidence for selection bias and the 7 studies with defined populations show a 95% confidence interval 26-37% of those with positive RT-PCR are asymptomatic.

Note the denominator is probably smaller than true number of infected.

Shuffle,
Most published scientific papers are wrong. The Sydney study in particular is a joke:
That's data mining on a tiny sample (less than 2000 people in total caught it in Sydney). It's actually quite ridiculous.

Kids are back in school, are there any deaths we can attribute yet?

I'd guess we'd need about 20 to lock back up.

I think there's definitely something to the theories that immune systems are stronger in summer. You've been spot on with that. Perhaps it's even a meaningful factor in corona deaths.

Sweden now saying they may mandate short lockdown periods, throwing the herd immunity startegy out the door.

The backtrakaments were inevitable.

Oh, no, cases are rising in sweden!

99.99% ****ing survival rate, but cases!

This **** is fake news.

FAKE NEWS.

Russian bot in the thread.

big if true

Are you swedish?

Here is a great twitter thread summary about a youtube of two highly respected infectious disease guys discussing covid. Haven't watched the video yet but the summary makes me think these guys are spot on.

First part of the video I watched completely contradicted the summary.

The summaries suck.

I'm continuing to hear about hydroxy in ways that don't seem to totally eliminate the possibility that it might help in certain cases. The contention seems now to be that if given to the very vulnerable early in the disease progression, along with a few other specific ingredients, the chances of eventually dying is cut quite a bit. And a few of the people saying it are not quacks.


Is it possible that the studies that debunked hydroxy could have missed a correlation because most of those in the study were not in the specific subset that is supposedly helped? Or perhaps not enough of the patients received the cocktail of ingredients that is now what is claimed to be needed. The pro hydroxy doctors cite studies that seem prove their point. But of course even if the studies are legit they could be cherrypicked from among hundreds of others that say the opposite.

You need to get on twitter man

Of course the studies that "debunked" hydroxy were wrong. We've known this for months now.

Where do you get your information?

Meanwhile in France:
This is with a massive testing backlog. Population wise, this is equivalent to 100K/day in the US.

Herd immunity in Europe theory as a cause for low numbers in June/July: Completely dead
Europe doing better than the US because politics/no Trump: Completely dead

Every argument I've had with idiots on these topics has now been resolved conclusively in my favor. Only thing left is winter death rate.

My instinct says that once you have to cohort shop to get results, you're probably dealing with bullshit. The smaller the cohort, the more add-ons (like combining with other pills), the more it's probably bullshit. I mean, it happens all the time that zero efficacy (or even harmful) drugs show effect. Most cancer drugs and psychiatric drugs (pure sickening frauds among others) have zero efficacy and rely on this kind of cohort shopping.

The number of doctors who swear by clinical improvements, some strong studies showing benefit, and the pure gigantic fraud study that tried to shut down HCQ in the Lancet (wtf was that?) make the above a bit more muddled. It's in the "possible" bracket but it's a weak possible.

This reminds me so much of Bush's "Mission Accomplished" banner.

But you are right, winter death rates are quite important to the question of whether T cells offer any protection. December euro momo data for Sweden should be interesting. At least you won't be able to completely butcher your understanding of that.

No, they offer zero data to confirm or deny the useless T Cell theory. DUCY? You're like a crazy truther at this point, so deep in the theories of some idiot geriatric oncologist on Twitter that everything is confirming or potentially confirming the thesis for you.
I understand everything perfectly. It's you who doesn't understand the overwhelming data against your theories (or the concept of double counting), hence these jaw dropping logical fails that you make. For example:

Theory: 40-50% of people have T Cell immunity to corona

Damning evidence against: vast amounts of contract tracing data showing frequent saturation infections within groups (to illness). One example of many, where a single person made 86% of people in the group ill with COVID-19:



Theory: Due to existing T Cell immunity, herd immunity is reached at 15-20% of the population infected.

Damning evidence against: Large numbers of areas soaring with R>>1 right now even with existing immunity rates greater than this (over 30% in parts of NY for example)

You're really quite offensively idiotic to keep holding forth with fully debunked truther theories that were disproven by the data before they were even posited.

Here's something I want you think about: If the T Cell theory is true, 40-50% of people had these T Cells in the first wave as well. 1% died even with lockdown. What does that mean about this upcoming winter? I'm talking to someone so incredibly daft he doesn't understand the concept of double counting. Here's some advice for self improvement: Stop following geriatric oncologists on Twitter (clue: every quack theory in the history of the world has had bunches of well credentialed geriatric experts pushing it and extrapolating illogically from it) and go join a child's critical reasoning introduction course to get the basics down, so you're less of a dimwit in these discussions. Thanks!

How long will the 2nd wave last? If it is basically starting right now is it here until the weather gets good again?

We desperately need a vaccine which seems unlikely.