The new Spanish cases reported in your graph include people who tested positive for antibodies, not new infections.

https://www.reuters.com/article/us-h...-idUSKCN24P1ZT


As far as the death rate in NY/NJ, do you think it may have been impacted by the decision to stuff infected people into nursing homes?

I could be wrong as to the reason cases have been declining in the three states I have been following, but your arguments as to why that may be are not very convincing.

I'm hesitant to extrapolate flu transmission patterns to SARS-CoV-2. And I should know the answer to this, but I don't: If flu transmission is so weather dependent, why do we see flu seasons in San Diego, Houston, Florida, etc.? (I assume they have a pronounced flu season in these places.) The explanation of people spending less time indoors during summer doesn't hold water—the summer is when it's brutally hot in a place like Houston or Tampa, and everyone spends more time indoors with the A/C cranked up. With respect to social time spent indoors versus out, summer and winter are flipped in these places compared to temperate cities like New York or Pittsburgh.

I also wouldn't assume that the surface-transmission characteristics of the flu apply to SARS-CoV-2. I think that's a huge driver of the flu, but I haven't seen evidence that it's a significant driver for SARS-CoV-2.

I think that kids going back to school will cause the R0 to rise significantly, but that comes a bit before temperate cities start packing people back inside due to weather. And I think in the places that have had the worst outbreaks, enough people have been infected to bring the R0 below 1 come winter. So my prediction is that both cases and deaths will trend slowly downward from here, and by Dec. 31st, worldometers will show deaths around 233k. And we won't have administered 1,000,000 vaccines in the US by the end of the year. And Biden will win the election.

It don't hurt you no more than a weekend of binge drinking, or 5 minutes on a cell phone

How do you arrive at this conclusion? Why won’t waves two+ be as bad or worse until we either have a vaccine or herd immunity?

You are taking my quote a bit out of context. First off it wasn't even in this thread, it was in the trading thread. And it was made in the context of trading. The market is beyond covid and doesn't really have much of an effect on the market which is the point I was trying to make.

Personally I am of two minds on covid. I think it is way overblown and being manipulated for political reasons. I think a lot of things can be responsibly opened up a bit more. On the other hand I take very seriously from a personal standpoint because I don't wanna get it. So I am very pro mask, social distancing and sheltering in place.

But the treatments are getting better and the vaccine is getting closer and the people who are at true risk are acting more responsibly.

I think Covid-19 will just be accepted as part of life and we will just find ways to cope with it.

https://www.cnn.com/2020/08/02/healt...ess/index.html

CNN now on train with T-cell resistance.

Approximately half of blood that couldn’t possibly have had exposure to covid-19 reacted strongly to Sars-Cov-2. Still need more testing and information but if this pans out it would explain why cases start to level off with about low levels of positive antibodies. In the scientist’s sample of old blood, half basically had resistance/immunity without any prior exposure.

The article mentions this could be due to exposure to other forms of coronavirus. That could contribute to differences in both infection and fatality rates in different cities.

Note exposure to older strands of the flu is often cited as a reason older people did relatively well with the Spanish Flu. This idea of exposure to older/related strand of a virus conferring resistance has been observed and proven with other viral diseases as well.

I am not as confident as mrbaseball but I do agree we’re rapidly approaching the peak of Covid-19 in terms of economic impact. Through a combination of lower health impact, an altered expectation of “normal” in social interactions, and just acceptance of the risks, society will soon move on.

True. I was genuinely interested in your take on Covid, not just the impact on markets, so it seemed appropriate for this thread. Not throwing shade.

I highly recommend a podcast called This Week in Virology- specifically, an episode from 07/16 called 'Test often, fast turnaround, with Michael Mina'. Really insightful look at how cheap, rapid, not even all that accurate testing is the most effective key to controlling Covid. Spoiler alert, it doesn't seem the US is interested.

My father just contacted me about some new conspiracy theory (that he believes in). I honestly have not done any research on it yet. I am going to do some research on it, but can anyone give me the run-down as it stands?

https://www.snopes.com/fact-check/moderna-conspiracy/

Sure, school has a lot to do with spike in flu numbers in October, but surely a lot of the flu cases in these tropical areas are inflated by the weather refugees fleeing Pittsburgh and New York, taking the flu virus with them, keeping the numbers high until March.

The real conspiracy re Moderna is all the directors and stock-owning managers getting rich selling stock and getting funding from a corrupt government.

Here we go again

More in the line of 'here we go again',

Data may not lie but the people who present it often do.

In any modeling you consider you have to build in a large margin for levels of data manipulation some of which, will be outed but much of which may never get uncovered.





Georgia's coronavirus data made reopening look safe. The numbers were a lie

..."I have a hard time understanding how this happens without it being deliberate," microbiology and molecular genetics PhD and state Rep. Jasmine Clark told the Journal Constitution. "Literally nowhere ever in any type of statistics would that be acceptable."
Georgia isn’t the only state itching to reopen that has a penchant for dubious data. Florida actively tried suppressing county coroners from releasing COVID-19 death tallies....

This is new information!

Tell your father to do the following

Google Bill Gates age and college
Google Anthony Fauci age and college

And then I guess keep on believing it.

In-depth look at how the US has handled Covid so far

https://www.theatlantic.com/magazine...ailure/614191/

Spoiler alert: absolutely atrocious. This was worthy of calling out

I just thought of something I have never heard anyone else bring up. Deaths are consistently under-reported on the weekends. Has anyone thought to think how this is potentially impacted the estimated fatality rate? If you just look at weekends, I am seeing 50% decreases in deaths being recorded on the weekends consistently. Also, new cases per day does not seem to suffer from this same level of variance, there might be slight decreases in the % of new cases per day on the weekends, but nowhere near like we do with deaths.

I assume many weekend deaths aren't accounted for until the following week. Remember that the totals you see reported are aggregated from hundreds or thousands of hospitals in small cities and towns around the country (or world) as well as large ones. These smaller places likely don't have the staff to handle around-the-clock reporting of statistics.

The larger source of (at least temporary) undercounting is people who die at home. The cause of death for those people likely takes a while to get recorded, especially in rural areas or countries with poorer health care systems. But I don't think there's any big missing body count due to weekends.

Good article. Lots of blame to go around.

Won't be received well in this forum where 'don't put any blame on Trump as he has been "excellent" in his handling of this, ...'it is all on Dem leadership and voters', is the only acceptable refrain and anything else is seen as 'political'.

But the article is well worth the read.

In Belgium the experts educated us on this from the very start. In the weekend, more people are off, which just results in delays in reporting. This doesn't mean that deaths go unreported, it just takes time for deaths to be reported. This results in peaks in deaths on either Monday & Tuesday or Tuesday & Wednesday depending on when a country reports its deaths. The same effect is visible for public holidays.

If you'd calculate death per day of the week over the crisis of any country, you could easily see this.

Some countries even fix this in the graphs they report, by adding deaths to previous days when they do get reported.

This is also the reason why some death-per-day graphs look different on worldometers vs the graphs you see of official instances. Worldometers mostly consolidates what gets reported each day.

https://www.cnn.com/2020/07/29/healt..._blogfooterold

Apparently average Covid testing turnaround is more than 4 days in US. I will say I got my results in less than 24 hours in NYC when I got tested in April. I think BioReference did it.

I am sure the capacity is there by now for tests at the lab level. The delays have to be due to a matter of will/money and/or bad logistics. I mean nut low case I am sure FedEx is more than happy to next day ship the samples to whatever labs that used to give me results in less than 24 hours at the height of NYC cases.

This is Trump and state governors not wanting tests enough to make it happen or they are too incompetent to make it happen. Cuomo has reverted to being an idiot since NYC cases fell and seemed to have bottomed out but he really managed covid well in NY, especially NYC despite deBlasio’s sheer incompetence.

This is incredible

Trump and McEnany repeatedly claim that the US leads globally in testing, but according to the link below, China has already conducted 90M tests. Who's right?

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/#countries

24 hours from personal experience. I'm guessing healthcare provider facilities have something to do with turnaround time.

The number is just one indicator.
When the results take 3+ days they are almost worthless.