ToothSayer is live on the phone on CNBC right now freaking out about Coronavirus.

And what is the plan if the virus mutates or we cant find a cure? Stop society indefinitely? You probably have more people die of poverty from massive economic depression than the virus would have killed.

Can never tell if you're serious, if serious is there a clip?

if the alternative is everyone does nothing and lives in isolation for a year, ill take my chances

instead of mass social distancing, the old and the immunosuppressed need to isolate themselves until a vaccine is found and the rest of us need to take our chances with the virus. So that society can keep running.

In 4.8 million Ireland on the 17th:

https://www.irishtimes.com/news/irel...week-1.4204963

I agree with this. vaccine should skip normal approval process and be greatly sped up.

If you lock down hard you can go back to normal life in 4-6 weeks, sooner in less infected areas, with no death.
Won't work. Death rates are too high. Hospitalization-required rates are WAY too high, they quickly overwhelm and the death rate soars. These are the numbers assuming a 0.9% case fatality rate, from despacito's link above:



You can multiple those death rates by 5 without hospital treatment (once hospitals overflow, which happens at a tiny percentage infected).

This isn't just the old. Look at the hospitalization-required rate for 30 and 40 year olds. That overwhelms in no time.

Cliffs: I'm an optimist but 1 million Americans could die. Most big businesses can't survive a quarter with no revenue. The US treasury doesn't have enough money to bail everyone out. I'm a major Hilton shareholder but Hilton is going to zero. I'm buying more Hilton today as it goes down in the hope that we'll have a 30 day shutdown. President needs to go on TV and order a nationwide 30 day shutdown. President should use national guard to enforce shutdown if necessary.

This was better than his fight with Carl Icahn, IMO. Will post clip tonight if I see it posted.

This will not work. The virus will come right back. That imperial college paper even said so.

immunosuppressed?

US population

40% obese
10% diabetes, 20% pre-diabetes
9% asthma

There for sure is some (significant) overlap but you would end up isolating at least 1/3 of the under 60 population for 12+ months.

You do that and could end up injecting healthy people with something as bad or worse than the virus.

.4% among those under 40 is bad but its not worth shutting down society over

Nothing is without risks in life
diabetes!= immunosuppressed

Former base/precious metals trader. 15 year lurker of mid-high lhe and more recently BFI. Wish I had found it a long time ago, you guys are great.

Barring any mutations, once a person has been infected, has recovered and is no longer shedding the virus, are they safe to go about their normal business/go back to work? Any risks in that to themselves or others?

A friend of mine in the medical field made a good point today regarding the possible overestimation of the severity of this coronavirus. Since the sample of people we have tested/positive/dead only includes those who show symptoms or in some cases who were exposed to someone who showed symptoms, the sample proportion will be skewed towards the more severe cases, skewing population death rate estimations. Since the younger you are, the less likely you are to be affected, the 0.2% death rate for under 40s is probably high. How high is anyones guess. It's also possible that they take this into account when calculating? Maybe someone better versed in statistics can respond?

I have been banging this drum for days.

You've been leveled, rick.

The governer of Lombardy, the most heavily hit region of Italy, said today that the healthcare system is about to collapse. Death figures & critical cases continue to increase.

Lombardy has been under strict lockdown since March 8, and it's still collapsing 10 days later.

Anyone saying ITT that lockdown is probably not efficient or not necessary, is an idiot. And you will be proven to be an idiot soon enough.

That's 120,000 dead if 25% infected.

Add to that people with various short and long-term consequences.

Add to that people dying from all other reasons. Some would overlap but can you imagine what the healthcare system would look like?

This is why I think it’s correct to be short the market. This is just going to get worse due to big city numbers increasing daily and people panicking. Feel bad for people that lose their jobs for this bc it’s really not something that could have even remotely been predicted.

Btw govt might give 1k to everyone. Hmm idk how much that is going to help. When I lived on my own, my rent was 1k a month in a medium- to small city in the downtown area which is a higher price than suburbs etc. I don’t think 1k is going far to people that may have lost serving, hotel, travel industry positions. I’m currently short the market and feel bad that I’m kinda rooting for this to get worse to recoup some of the insane money I had earmarked for a home purchase etc but will prolly look to get out of stocks shortly (401k will stay in but personal acct will go 100% cash). I think nyc is going to be on full lockdown within 24-72 hrs which will really lol crush the market. Only thing I can say positive is that once this is over, a lot of value can be had in the market.

Square (SQ) was killing prior to this hiccup at 80/share. Currently at 35 a share. I wouldn’t touch the stock now with a 10 foot pole however when this clears, I think this could be a huge bagger if time horizon is 5-10 years. Easily think this company could produce a 200-500 dollar share price down the road. Now, they deal heavily with small business so I’ll wait for he stock to really get hammered and find a better entry point.

Mind mentioning what region this is? Thx

If you grew up in the Soviet Union, like "yeah but where's the 5 feet of snow?"

This can’t be real life.

UK death curve putting in work.