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Originally Posted by doctor877
Could someone give somewhat objective explanation of the BIP148 uasf **** that is going on all over the reddit etc. There just seems to be so many opinions and contradicting information out there that I just am not really sure what to think of the whole situation (haven't yet researched it too much).
What actually BIP148 is trying to accomplish?
How can it be activated if we they don't get majority of miners to go for it?
Are majority of miners not going for it?
Who the **** are actually supporting it, if its not miners?
If majority ofminers don't start mining it, the BIP148 chain just becomes basically altcoin?
Is it a good solution?
Yeah, kinda lazy to ask these questions before researching it properly, but there seems to be pretty smart people here, so figured I'd get some good discussion going on in here.
Also, what other places are good to read discussion about this stuff, reddit/bitcoin is basically the only stuff I read, and a lot of people seem to be pretty ******ed out there (applies to most reddit subs from what ive seen).
BIP148's objective is to activate SegWit for the 80% of users who have their nodes ready to handle it. It does this by making a new rule - miners must signal readiness for SegWit in every block they mine, and only mine on top of blocks that signal SegWIt, effective Aug 1.
The economic incentives are what will drive the majority of the miners. Imagine you have a bunch of restaurants that only sell rancid food in a city. You have no options. However, you could say "I will only come to your restaurant if you make food that is not rancid". The majority of restaurants say "we don't care, we won't do that! You will eat what we serve!" You gather a bunch of your friends in the town and decide that on Aug 1, you will stop eating at any restaurant that still serves rancid food. If you gather very few, many will ignore you. But if you have sufficient numbers, they will have no choice. The restaurants that serve rancid food will not get many customers. In this case, there is a strong economic incentive for the restaurants to meet customer demand.
In the Bitcoin case, it's more severe due to how the blockchain is handled. If you have *stricter* rules than someone else, your chain is valid for them every time, but their chain is not always valid for you. Since the rules of Bitcoin state that the chain with the most work that is valid is the real chain, this means that the 148 chain is ALWAYS valid (but not always the most work) for the legacy clients, but the opposite is not always true. Because of this, if the mining majority ever gets behind 148, even years into the future, then the entire chain from the split until that day gets erased from history for the legacy chain. Gone. If you had coins on that side without having coins on the 148 chain, you no longer have any Bitcoins. You are done.
So that's a very asymmetric risk.
Now it isn't certain how many people are in favor of 148. Personally, I will be using that chain no matter what happens. I will be selling every coin I have on the legacy side and buying as many 148 coins as I can. I figure I might be able to get 50:1 or 100:1. If 148 is successful, which I think it has a reasonably chance of being, then I just increased my wealth by 50-100x. If it's not, we just have two coins, except one coin now has more features and should be cheaper to transact, and I have roughly the same value as before. Pretty easy situation for me.
Mining right now has a few big players. The biggest chip manufacturers are Bitmain (~70% market share) and BitFury. BitMain operates AntPool and also has very close "relationships" with other pools, such as ViaBTC. These relationships are pretty much to the point where they are the same pool - Bitmain can keep all these pools in line by threatening to stop selling chips if they ever defy the party line. There are strong suspicions that many of these pools aren't even really separate entities other than for show. You'll routinely notice Bitmain controlled hashpower shift between these pools to boost them up.
Bitmain is adamantly against Segwit (it breaks their patent infringing Asicboost chips that give them 20-30% optimizations in power usage), and has been fighting it from the start. They will NOT activate SegWit, and have used numerous stall tactics. BIP148 and BIP149 came as a result of users realizing that there is no way to ever get the supermajority of hashpower on board. Rather than being a user protection, BIP9 (where 95% of miners must signal readiness) became a miner veto. So we must now use other means - BIP8 replaces BIP9 (I doubt 9 will ever be used again). BIP8 allows miners to activate safely ahead of time, but at the expiration period, the rules automatically come into effect, regardless of the miners wishes. This will be useful for miners who feel pressured by state actors to block future privacy enhancing features as well.
Back to the majority of miners- if the economic majority is on the 148 chain, then the price of coins on that chain will be higher. This means that any miner that mines that chain will be making more money than the other. Miners, having expenses to pay, will eventually have no choice than to move to that chain. Once the majority of miners are moved and outworks the other chain, then the other chain gets wiped out. Sorry for your loss.
I would not consider miners the decider of what is an altcoin or not. Miners do not have that power. The economic majority does. If the 148 chain is higher valued than the legacy chain, I would certainly consider it Bitcoin. If it's only used by a few people, then it's probably an alt-coin. I would still use it as an alt-coin - It has the advantages I list above (cannot get wiped out, unlike legacy, has SegWit, bigger blocks, no hostile miners).
I would recommend reading uasf.co for more information (I'm the author of a lot of it). I've had numerous discussions with the author of BIP148 and BIP149, Shaolinfry, so I have given him a great deal of feedback and understand quite a bit of the motivations.
If you do have any more questions, I'd be happy to answer.
If you are unsure about BIP148, I would recommend strongly to make sure you control your coins with your own private keys (use a wallet like Bitcoin Core, Electrum, etc...), rather than a trusted third party like Coinbase. If Coinbase is unprepared, which from all signs it appears that they are, they could have a massive loss and be unable to ever pay back what they lose. Even if it's a small risk, you are better off keeping your own coins, sitting tight, and seeing what happens before you act.
Another thing to mention - most transactions you send after August 1 will be valid on BOTH chains. This means that if you send legacy coins, you also will be sending BIP148 coins to the same place. There are protections to split them, but it will take about a day to be able to use them, and you will have to actively seek them out. I would recommend being extremely cautious in the week up to and after Aug 1. I would also anticipate a huge rush of getting coins out of 3rd party sites leading up to Aug 1, so be sure you do it well in advance or expect to pay a large fee.