Have you tried? Is the software/site any good?

I think there are a lot more things bitcoin needs for adoption before a futures market.

This could be exciting.

I was playing on a different site built on that framework. It's fairly decent software (for BitCoins). The only trouble was it was just me and one of the operators of the site. He sucked and I ran hot, so chalk up .0040 BTC profit for me!

For those of you selling:

I'm curious what changed between the time you bought and now. Yes, it is true that bitcoin needs to gain more widespread acceptability before it can gain value (e.g. get listing on a major exchange). It's also true that by the time this happens, the price will have spiked. So, why don't you guys think it will gain more acceptability?

It does not need another exchange, it needs to have an actual use for the coins. Right now there are very few uses for bitcoins.

Identifying the end of a speculative bubble.

There is little use for it, and little expected use in the near term future IMO.

Press is dropping off and peaked, most people who would buy already knows about it.

Don't need to be the one caught with the bag.

There really are three potential uses I see:

1) Buying things that need anonymity - Silk Road
2) Buying things that banks will prevent - Gambling
3) Sending money where there are huge fees

1- basically the fundamental value. However, most people will buy and sell, and only the time the currency is held is what gives it value.

2- too big of an investment to be worth anyone's trouble, little chance of that market taking off mainstream

3- possible, but not sure it will be that much cheaper or worth that much of a benefit, very hard to actually set this up

If you believe it would be good for someone to build #2 or #3, then you could for less effort just buy the coins. It's basically a game of chicken where no one wants to act since it's easier to speculate for the same benefit. So nothing happens.

The market is fundamentally unstable due to poor distribution and huge numbers of irrational speculators. That's enough to keep casual users out other than foolish speculators.

I've recovered my initial investment, kept enough to gamble with (both by actually gambling and just in case I'm wrong in my gut about where the market is headed).

Google trends are down tremendously, and it takes a ton of capital to clear new coins. Miners are getting crushed now, so that takes away a lot of capital coming in to get interest (people might start mining, then get hooked and start buying).

The reason it doesn't get accepted is it's a pain to get compared to what people already have, and there's not really a big benefit in it. Why would anyone use it over cash?

Combine that with security issues where people will either lose their wallets, get trojans that steal them, shady sites that get hacked, etc... It's a huge cost to use it vs. the small fees you might pay using traditional methods.

Yeah I'm keeping the same kind of small amount just on the super off chance bitcoins end up smashing. I'll probably check out the poker rooms.

All mining profits are being sold ASAP

I'm also considering selling my mining equipment while it is still worth something, but may keep it around for password cracking if necessary

Another bitcoin online poker room, that makes 4-5. It is still profitable to mine. Major use of bitcoin might be to hide or store assets.

https://strikesapphire.com/rakes.html

Suppose the price of bitcoin is $15.

Presently coins are mined 300 per hour or 7200 a day. Thus to maintain price, 7200 * $15 or $108,000 must be added a day. Suppose this inflow goes to zero. The inflation rate of bitcoin would be (7200*365)/ 6900000 = 0.38%. $15 * 6.9 MM = market cap of $103,500,000. There are roughly 170 days left in the year. If there are no news buyers the price will drop to 103.5 MM/(6.9 MM + (7200*170))= $12.77 at years end. At the end of 2012 the price will be $9.62. However, once we reach that point BTC will inflate the next 4 years about the same rate the dollar inflates. Thus, the bottom of BTC is $10, if no new money is added. This also assumes congress does not balance the budget. If there are net outflows, the price could drop. But, the economy still seems to be growing very fast.

Now BTC could go to $5. But the longer it remains above $10 means that is value the owners give to it. As a disclaimer, BTC could go to zero tomorrow if a hole is found.

Ya I was looking at the inflation rate expected over the next few years and it seems like we are going to see an increase over the next year of about 50%. Seems like any investment now would be pointless.

The trouble is much of the market cap now is based on hoarders who are expecting the price to rise dramatically. If those expectations drop, they will sell, and very few people would buy, which could drop the price far beyond $10.

The instantaneous annual inflation is 38% right now. It is dropping fast and will be about 12% in 1 1/2 years. A couple years after that and it will be 5% and never be higher again. I wish they would have started with 1 million, then given after a period of tests to everyone that contributed to the project prior to start-up. Then fire up the servers. Preferably there would be a king Gavin, to decide how the bitcoin is fairly distrubuted prior to use.

A sharp bell curve would have also been better. Thus in the beginning few bitcoins mined and going to a high rate in 2 years, to nothing in 4 years.

The volume at mt gox is high. I think some of the originals that held say 10,000 in the beginning sold off a lot. There is a great risk of hoarding if the there is a great collapse or your wallet is stolen.

Time will show how stable the price is. If it stays above a certain number for say 1 month. I think it will be hard for it to drop except maybe 30% due to the inflation. That might also be mitigated by the growth of bitcoin. I still think the growth will exceed inflation and we will see a higher price in January 4th, 2013 of maybe not $100 like I said before but $25.

The volume is high because a lot of people can trade without fees. People trade in and out looking to make a profit.

I think people are realizing that risk where they previously didn't, and more people are attacking, so that will drive people who are hoarding to unload. The distribution is very heavy toward a small number of people, so they either have a huge portion of their net worth tied up in this, or they start to divest, which requires more capital to rise up.

Inflation will push it down some, but the biggest factor is new money coming in vs. people going out. A lot of people got in hoping to get rich quick after watching it go up. If it doesn't spike back, they will get bored and sell, similar to what a lot of people on here have done. Fads get boring.

http://mtgoxlive.com/mobile/

this looks cool as hell
i figured apple would block all the bitcoin apps that let you transfer. **** i want one

I just started paying attention to bitcoins and I was wondering what caused the big run up before the big crash? Was it simply all the media attention bitcoins was getting?

Depends what you define as the big run up. It had a fairly steady run up with lots of media attention. What happens is if people expect the price to rise, a lot of people want to buy, and few want to sell. Which causes prices to go up, and repeats the process.

There was some lolsec and Anonymous tweets about hacking people related to Bitcoins. There was an insane rush from 15 to 30 in a very short period of time. The market is so thinly traded, what can happen is a very few number of buys can drive the price up high. I have a theory that a bunch of Mt. Gox accounts got hacked, and someone used the cash in those accounts to buy a bunch, driving the price up, which caused more people to jump in and try to ride the wave up. The initial spur might not have been hacking, but it could have just been a big buyer. Price goes up super high to 30. Then it came crashing down. If someone hacked accounts, the key thing is to buy coins with the money, transfer to yourself, then sell the way back down. You don't care about screwing up the market, you just want to get as much cash as you can immediately before anyone notices. This is all just a theory I have, could have just been people trying to trade and failing miserably.

Then there was the complete destruction of the market with Mt. Gox getting hacked and all the orders getting filled by someone selling off a ton of coins, and then the recent trail off.

Ya I was talking about the 15 to 30 bump, thanks

Yeah, it happened really fast, then came right back. Basically, someone was buying a bunch, then a lot got sold back and it oversold, then bounced back to about 17. Then Mt. Gox went down.

It doesn't take much activity to make prices move that much. I'm amazed it's been as stable as it's been lately, I actually expected more volatility since Gox came back since people would be scared to keep cash on their site, and that would lead to less liquidity.

TomCollins:

There had to be a reason why you got into BTC in the first place; I saw you listed out reasons why it would be valuable above, and I think you missed one big thing: its reliability.

BTC, unlike any other currency, is fully and 100% predictable. We know how many will be created tomorrow, and we have concrete reason to place value in a bitcoin other than because our government (which could be volatile, engage in inflationary practices, lose wars, etc.) tells us to.

Anyway, the reason I bought bitcoins and the reason I see value in them is because BTC is a superior currency, and in the long-term they will be the most used currency simply because it is best.

So my question to you would be, do you plan to rebuy BTC even though you see negative value in them immediately, and for someone like me who wants to invest in BTC long-term, I know you'd advise me to sell now, but when would you advise me to rebuy?

I would be interested in rebuying again if some news about an increase in real usage patterns (not just trading) comes. For example, if you read a story about Mexican-Americans shifting their business from Western union to bitcoin for remittances, that would be a positive.

If this happens, I think you can look at google trends as an indicator. Mt Gox trading volumes are so volatile, they will be difficult to use for information.

Buy it when it has proven to be a superior currency and you reap the benefits by using the superior aspects of the currency. Buy and holding a currency you do not use is risky, this is why it is commonly recommended that people only own their home currency or the currencies of the countries where they operate. Anything else increases risk and is not +EV if you do not have trading skills. True +EV investors know everything about what they are doing and ALL the possible outcomes and how to handle them. Without that you are gambler IMO.

"recommended to own their home currency"? I think this is bad investment advice. If you held $1 in all currencies since 1900 on average you would have about 1 penny in equivalent buying power today. I would be willing to bet this trend will continue. Bitcoin if it still exists it will be worth the same.