Quote:
Originally Posted by SmokeyJ
Wow I can almost feel RaineTech's tilt after reading this post
It's not that unfair, there are tons of things that might be easy to invest in and make a lot but if you don't get it or don't see the benefit, you are going to pass. Everyone is all over 3D Printing, I think it's mostly a joke. Or you don't see how you have an edge or how to make the right play or evaluate it, you stay away from what you cannot be an expert at.
On the adoption curve, certain people are going to fit into different parts. Some people want to see a lot of parts in place before getting the bigger picture, some don't want to take any chances. It's not really a big deal. Bitcoin could very well be nothing in 20 years. Cryptocurrencies could be nothing in 20 years. Or they could be quite large. To dismiss something as completely new and potentially revolutionary as guaranteed failure (and to even stupidly say it will die THIS YEAR) shows you just aren't thinking about things well.
Early stage, innovation driven VC is getting involved right now. It's not going to be everyone because it's not mature enough for that. Bigger institutional money will trail behind that once there is a track record. Again, they are going to ignore it until it's big enough on their scale to actually matter. If you have a $5B fund, how much can you reasonably through at Bitcoin? $100M? Even if it goes up 10x, it's small potatoes for you, you need to not waste big effort into something that isn't ready to hop on yet and to just gambool.
I'd be interested in seeing major investment in both the computer industry and internet and see when various VC firms and institutional money came on board. We are seeing some trickles now, although it's growing fast. Last year was the first big year for VC to even get involved, and this year it is accelerating. The price of Bitcoin has risen such that you are more likely to get a return on your investment funding businesses who can exploit the technology rather than just buying coins (which is good!). I looked at this 3 years ago, and it was too immature even for me to screw around with anything in it, and that caused me to exit. The investment made in the last year has made me change courses and possibly make major life changes on this opportunity. It's going to be a very interesting year.
But I'm sure it is useless for a trader (for now). I'm sure it's useless for big institutional money (for now). Raine is suffering from shoeism, where he can only see the present, and realize that things can change over time. Although he does seem to see some potential for it to exist, so I'm a bit surprised that he is so certain it will die so quickly. Without a fatal flaw, a fatal series of governmental actions, or an amazing replacement, it at least will die slowly.