I assume this is sarcastic. I don't know anything about the above poster specifically, but I do know that there are actually legit posters on bitcointalk buying goxbtc at 70 cents on the btc. the price seems to be gradually dropping though, so not sure how long 70% return on goxbtc will last.

Yes, I pretty much want to gamble that Gox is solvent and will start paying out again soon. Helping someone get 100% of their fiat money out will give me a better deal than the 70% most people are offering. No problem going first with anyone reputable.

New update from mtgox

My prediction: Mtgox by limiting the BTC cashouts will create fear in the opposite direction from what we have now. Once the cashout faucet is opened even slightly (BTC that is, fiat is ****ed) there will be a lot of buying pressure. I think it will push if not go beyond the last all time high ($1200) on mtgox alone because of panic buying to get out.

Other exchanges will follow slightly but still be far behind, just like earlier.

Thoughts?

Shoe, came here to post the same thing.

I am starting to think they somehow have managed to lose the key to one of their cold wallets. Limiting BTC cashouts makes no sense. A limit on the number of withdrawals I could see, but not the amount of BTC in each. It seems they are trying to keep funds trapped to generate trading fees and recover that way. If this is true it makes sense that they would issue the first statement blaming it on the protocol trying to drive prices down.

On the other hand if the above is true it is very strange that the price is so low on Gox compared to Stamp as one would assume gox would be buying BTC themselves. You would also expect this latest update to be worded in a way to create more fear.

This situation is so confusing and makes so little sense that I think there is a fairly large chance something shady is going on. Exactly what it is I have no idea.

Almost certainly they can't currently cover all of the BTC deposits (or the fiat ones for that matter) so they have to limit the withdrawals in the hope that the situation rights itself before they have to admit insolvency.

edit: oh, and imo the reason is more likely to be theft, imcompentance or embezzlement than the loss of a cold storage key

I agree with this.

The big mystery is how the price can be so much lower at Gox. Right now you can cash out any fiat or pending withdrawals you have there without taking a loss, probably even making a profit. This should never be possible if they are in fact close to insolvent. Only explanation has to be some kind of inside trading. This worries me a lot.

Everyone I know who are trading with over 1 000 BTC have been buying like crazy, but the spread has barely moved.

You can? I suggest you try that and see how you get on. I do not consider it to be anywhere close to 100% that if I request a withdrawal now I'll actually get it.

The amount of the "limit" will be interesting. Really the size of it will show just how insolvent they are. Super low number means flat broke, a larger number means not so bad. I'm thinking it's going to be a pretty low number. Then they are going to have "issues" with the new system and it's going to be delayed again.

This of course will only happen after they allow withdrawals "soon". You know over a year ago they were going to add ltc to their trading engine "soon".

They will do anything to drag it out and bring in as much fiat as possible and give out as little BTC. If they don't do this, awesome, they are legit, BUT, if it starts to pan out this way, it is obvious they are in a world of hurt.

@mustmuck You don't make a withdrawal, you use the insane spread between gox and stamp and the fact that a lot of people are willing to bet on Gox being solvent. See if you can figure it out ;-)

And it is this, that you can actually get your fiat out of Gox without taking a loss if you are a bit creative, that makes me think that something really shady is going on somewhere...

You've answered your own question here: it's people betting on Gox being solvent. No need for insider trading, and it doesn't imply that the company is actually solvent or otherwise. Which isn't to say that there isn't insider trading or any host of other shady goings on.

I'm really curious to see what limits they impose on BTC withdrawals.

Is there anyone here atm offering live help via teamviewer or something to noobs who are worried about doing something wrong when buying? Willing to pay an hourly as long as you're a respectable poster. The funkyworms of bitcoins.

Also, can anyone give any suggestions of the best way to buy BTC as an Australian?

Gox is busto, imo.

The only Australian site I've seen that inspires any confidence is Coinjar.com.

Crazy markup on price though.

Others appear to have tied their books to Mt Gox (bitxoin.com) and haven't been trading for a while now. Bitxoin do have a number you can ring to speak to a real person, though, so you can always try that. They told me last Wednesday they should be back up within 24 hours, though, so keep that in mind.

Article by ezra: http://www.coindesk.com/mt-gox-may-headed-bankruptcy/

that's a good writeup

The other possibility is that Gox was solvent all the time and Karpeles made millions manipulating the market.

this is a fun article

Cash: a new form of currency

wp

$260 at mtgox now. I don't really understand why the risk of bankruptcy drives the price down so much. Do people think it's more likely they'll get part of their fiat back instead of bitcoin if mtgox goes belly up?

It's a very interesting case. Off the top of my head I can't think of anything similar to this, maybe someone else can. I would guess though that if they went belly up and they had no BTC but had fiat, the people who had fiat would get a cut. (Kind of like cash/points in FTP). It's possible they would use the last price on gox and figure out how much people who held BTC were owed then. Then everyone would get a % of what they are owed, depending on how much gox had left.

If this is the case, it's in the best interest of gox to sell fake BTC and drive the price down.

thanks!

I think a lot of people think fiat will give them stronger legal recourse

The other potential problem is let's say they have some assets, go bankrupt, and try crediting customers. That's a drawn out process that could take years. If they don't have the coins or cannot access them, Bitcoin price goes up tremendously in 2 years, then they don't have the assets to pay off the people owed Bitcoin since they'd have to buy them on the open market.