Just DCA.

Arbitrage players regularly get pwned by buy and hold investors over a long enough time line... it's kind of an accepted reality.

that being said, anything is possible.
If you correctly hedge your arbitrage or long/short play, you may be able to come close or slightly exceed a buy and hold strategy... but that is a LOT of work and margins are razor thing for your ROI.
if you have the time to stare at the screen 24/7, then by all means go ahead.

It's still early of breaking out this channel. I'm not big on trading patterns and what not, but I think they are more reasonable with longer time frames and depending on how you look at the price action of the last several months to years there is a channel and a cup+handle pattern it just broke out of around ~70k, personally, if you're deciding whether or not to buy here I think you should buy and hodl at this level rather than wait until it goes to 70k.

It's been bouncing between 60k-70k for the last several months, so the time to buy was then or before then.

That's not kinda what I asked though,

It's funny how this is the apex investment vehicle, but nobody knows it yet.

People know.

I have attempted timing my buys and failed. Dumped entire savings in and forced to sell lower when emergency expenses arose. Started a comfortable DCA in 2021 and this is definitely the recipe for me. Just treat it the same as the 401K.

I’m guessing the US strategic reserve acquiring will not start in 2025, but if it does, oh boy.

Today was the first time I had a friend asking about buying bitcoin since the last cycle. This was a bad sign during previous cycle.

You mentioned a 'trading bot'... what do you think a trading bot does? It executes trade orders based on parameters specified by your programing... trading is Arbitrage.

can we just flirt via dm instead, study group was mentioned.

I think if you avoid buying in the two year bull mania/bear market period (ie: 2021-2022, 2025-2026) you’ll probably do very well longterm. Obviously you could have bought anytime in 2013 or 2017 and made money, but I think that level of EZ mode is in the past.

I prefer longterm capital gains though, so I’ll max my Roth IRA with FBTC in January but won’t be buying any spot BTC unless we get a 40% nuke in early 2025 and I can insta-buy on Coinbase while funds settle.

I agree. BTC was below $30K for the first 10-1/2 months of 2023, and below $45K for the rest of that year. That was the time to DCA. This whole discussion of whether to buy now at $76K–$78K or wait for a dip to $70K seems to miss the point. Where were you in 2023? Are you just hearing about BTC now?

If your objective is to wait for a good entry point, wait 2 years. Seriously. In Nov. 2026 (give or take a month or two), we're likely to see a bear market bottom. If you want to maximize your risk/reward ratio, that would be a good time to pile in or begin DCAing.

It's not about timing the market, it's about time in market. Just start DCA'ing now.

If you want to follow cyclical trends, we have about another year ahead of giga mooning before a big pullback.

Of course trends aren't always going to repeat, and with ETFs and countries onboarding now, we could be in the supercycle that people thought would happen 3-4 years ago.

I wouldn't overthink it. Just DCA. Stay humble, stack sats.

I didn't "not like" the way you phrased it, I was pointing out the flaws in your thinking. And you are not alone in this.

Let's assume you have $80k in BTC and $20k in fiat. You're pondering what to do with that $20k in fiat. You've stated that you're clearly not selling the $80k BTC, and the reason for that must be that you think it is better off in BTC than fiat. Therefore the remaining $20k which is currently in fiat, must also be better off in BTC. *It makes no sense to think that some [arbitrary] amount is better off in BTC, and the rest is (or may be) better off in fiat* (all else being equal, as explained in the previous post.)

Of the $100k you have to invest, let's imagine you actually had $100k in BTC and $0 fiat. Would you be contemplating selling $20k of the BTC for fiat? No, you wouldn't. But that's essentially what you're doing if in the $80k/$20k scenario you're deciding to "wait for a pullback."

Kelly criterion has entered the chat.

This comes up all the time. DCA only makes sense (for any investment, not just bitcoin) if you have a set amount available to invest over set periods of time. So much per paycheck is an example. If you have a lump sum, and believe something to be a good long-term investment, to correct move is to put it all in now. Spreading it out will lead to lower rates of returns.

I agree, but people are generally risk averse and are not going to do that, so getting them off zero by telling them to DCA is more likely to get their foot in the door.

As was stated in my first post, and was referenced, in the post you're quoting, assumptions were made that include it not being your full bank-roll. Although I think Kelly Criterion is more to do with placing bets where a losing bet results in a 100% of the bet being lost(?) Does it also apply with investments? Surely with investments you just diversify(?)

Exactly. The same point I'm making.

Just like every Poker Tournament you partake in, Chip/Value preservation is the most critical element in those games... Investing has the similar ICM properties where your capital is the same as your chip stack... where as, returns are your villain as opposed to another participant.

Since I treat my BTC/ETH stacks as like a retirement fund, some super dumbed down, 'simpleton' way I think about it is this: Would I rather be 'greedy' and try to snag the best possible entries every time risking that at some point I might be wrong and then that sum of money never ends up in BTC or just stack while I can?

Example being last bear season, I was fully deployed when BTC hit 20k (and had spent almost all of my powder by 25k) and therefore didn't really get fills in under 25k and none under 20k whilst I had friends who weren't buying when it was under 20k as they were waiting for 12k to start buying and they never got a single extra $ into BTC as they were 'greedy.'

If you have a long term outlook and you think BTC eventually some day ends up at $250k-$500k+, does it REALLY matter if you got your powder in at 30k vs 20k during bear season 2022-2023?

I'm not a trader, I'm just a hodler. Not trying to get the very best price always; am just trying to time my buys as best as I can. I was ready for bear market and added a lot to my portfolio during this last bear season from 40k down to 25k, layering in heavier buys the further we went down ('power dca' ive heard this called although in my case its not really DCA as I don't have a fixed amount I buy per week/month/etc)

Yep, just buy and hold. If an asset is appreciating over time, trying to beat the volatility by "timing the market" is just going to cost you. TA is all a load of bollocks anyway, but even if you disagree with that, then you would have to be *extremely* skilled to do better than just holding.

I am just thankful that I stuck to my guns and didn't listen to this advice, no matter how convincing it seemed.

80k incoming... less than 4% away.

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