What'll really bake your noodle is if the reason we see a top in the markets over the next month(s) (or year) is because of disinflation

Disinflation would prove Cathie Wood correct, so I would bet heavily against it.

When the Fed cuts rates it means businesses and individuals will seek more loans to spend into the economy, which increases demand for everything, which is inflationary. Also, money that is lying idle earning 5% also starts to be spent into the economy, since it isn't earning anything anymore, which increase demand for everything furter, more inflation.

Disinflation would be bullish for stocks, because it would mean lower rates.

Historically, you subtract 20 from the inflation rate and you get the pe of the market.

When inflation was 12% in the early 80s you had an 8 pe on the S and P 500.

Basically if you think we are going back to a world like 2010 to 2020 where inflation was very low and rates were very low, you can make an argument for stocks/real estate and Bitcoin here.

If you think inflation will be high this decade and we will be in a rising rate environment, stocks/real estate and Bitcoin are going to get hit and they are going to get hit hard.

So place your bets.

I think we see high inflation *next* decade

US has no choice but to print. Debt so high, inflation needs to be sacrificed. They do not have other cards to play. Trapped
Increasing rates to contain inflation will break banks, possibly the nation.
No way of paying back principal on the massive debt.

Sounds messy.

Everything feels overdue for a correction lately

Agree. Big upwards correction soon.

This guy is right. Deflation would be a huge relief to people.

If the price of Big Macs at McDonalds goes down, people go there more often. So the businesses make it up on volume.

Inflation benefits people with debt. And the United States government has the most debt of all. 35 trillion.

Unfortunately, the common man can no longer afford McDonalds. It's for birthdays only now.

McDonald's prices have gone up by 100% in ten years, due to rising costs.

Wages haven't gone up by that much.

Soon nobody will be able to afford to eat there.

McDonald's are probably heading for bankruptcy.

McDonald's 1st quarter 2024 net income was almost 2 billion.

They aren't as healthy as you'd think.

Despite the fact that they have increased their prices by 100% in the last ten years, their revenues have declined from 28 billion to 25 billion.

Their revenues should be growing at least in line with the inflation rate.

Their liabilities are growing faster than their assets.

In 2013 McDonald's assets were 36 billion and their liabilities 20 billion.

In 2024 McDonald's assets are 56 billion and their liabilities 60 billion.

They're profits have grown during that period, most of which probably has to do with them borrowing money to buy back their over priced stock and the Trump tax cuts.

Why is this happening.

Where I'm from a Big Mac meal is 12 euros now.

If you have kids and if you bring them there it's a lot of money to eat at McDonald's.

These places are starting to become treats for special occasions.

McDonalds still has incredibly cheap food but they gate it to their app where they hope people build more palpable habits

They took on a lot of debt during that time period because the federal rate was effectively 0 for most the time


What you will probably see is a shift away from debt laden activities as rates sustain

edit: this probably belongs in the trading thread

Fidelity and Blackrock hoovering up double digit multipliers of daily block rewards *each* today.

Steady lads!

About 30 times!
900m inflows / 6*24*3.125*price block rewards

Math checks out

Will we get to 100x daily supply this summer?

On that note regarding the huge ETF numbers. I always thought we'd sell our bags to the suits. I just figured price would be at $250,000, not 70k lol

Price prediction: BTC March 2025 $140,000 usd

That should give us enough time to let this cycle play out for awhile longer and for the market to digest how falling rates are actually bad because it means something in the economy is breaking/recession.

We bottom 2026 and then a low rate environment will be coupled with a QE bazooka to "save us" from the recession.

Lol at ever selling

A silly thing to do. I plan on being buried with my Bitcoin when I die

THROW MY LEDGER IN THE ****IN COFFIN