Jamie Dimon has entered the chat.

Clown is hilarious. Testifies with Warren the other week that crypto only used by criminals. Now today, JP Morgan is authorized participant for numerous spot bitcoin etf applications. Full on clown show.

Classic TradFi

Galaxy coming in at 59 bps + no fees for the first six months. There will be a mass exodus from Grayscale if they don’t reduce their 2% fee to a more market competitive rate.

I’ve got my entire Roth IRA in GBTC and ETHE which I’ll likely exit on the approvals until the dust settles. The discounts to NAV may widen again if Grayscale is delayed for any reason resulting in heavy selling of GBTC shares.

Nice little long liquidation this morning. Stay humble, kids.

Hodl strong.

I have a question, I get why BTC gets more expensive as hash rates go down but why is there supposed to be a massive correction after these cycles all the time? How is that related to the hash rate changes? If the changes are real and provide legitimate changes into the value/price of btc, then why is there a severe downswing that comes after?

think you posted this backwards.

it gets more expensive as hash rate goes up. the greater the cost to secure the network = the more secure the network = greater the cost of bitcoin (to offset the mining cost)

Giant green dildo candle incoming

yes but the question still stands, why does the rally eventually get blown up?

Here is the deal...
Hash rate goes up in unison with the price of BTC... however, BTC does NOT go up because the has rate increases.

Valuation of Bitcoin is not dependent on hash rate even though they usually move in tandem.

Valuation of BTC is dependent upon one thing... the price of Bitcoin is the exact representation of the amount of liquidity in the network, It's that simple. We can calculate to the exact dollar the value of Bitcoin based on how much currency is in the system because there is a fixed allocation of BTC.

As the network holds more liquidity, the more there is usage of the network... the more there is usage, the hash rate goes.

Why is there always a retracement as the cycle concludes? Traditionally, it is based on a cascade event, or series of events, as people try and realize their profits. Normally what occurs is those profits that have been realized in Bitcoin begin speculating in alt coins as they continue with the euphoria and people continue to search for more exponential gains... eventually the Valuation can no longer sustain itself and there is a crash/cascade event(s) that causes crypto winter and the whole cycle slowly begins again. This all happens even though there really has been no change or degradation in bitcoin or alt coin network functionality... euphoria and speculation causes crypto winter.

THAT BEING SAID, we could be in for something known as a super cycle because of all the institutional and sovereign investments this particular cycle... that means, we may not see another 'classic' crypto winter.

Fixed that for you.

so if you want to pay 10k for a single BTC, that is what it is worth?

come on now...

Market capitalization is the most critical thing with BTC... Liquidity ÷ number of shares = Cost of each share... as I am sure most people are aware of.

Wanting to pay another number has no effect and is non sequitur.

HOWEVER, when I look below the surface I can see your misguided point... A thing, BTC, is only worth what someone is willing to pay.

I have to be honest here... THAT IS TRUE WITH ANY ASSET. If people wanted to pay $5 for a Picasso painting, and no one wanted that painting, it is worth $5. I get it... it's just not an appropriate example thereof because no Picasso painting will ever be worth $5... because i will give you $10 any day of the week... and so on and so on and so on.

As a hard asset, a COMMODITY, Bitcoin is no different.

Liquidity as you use it is just a fancy way to say the total amount that people are currently willing to pay. Of course the other side of the coin is something is worth what current holders are willing to sell it for.

I feel you fail to have a fundamental understanding or Finance and Economics.

Liquidity is NOT a fancy word... it's a word used to describe the Value and ability to pay.

I use the word Liquidity as opposed to Dollars because... the value stored in Bitcoin is not representative of US Dollar Currency... but of Currencies from around the entire world.

Being argumentative for the sake of being argumentative is distracting and does not progress the narrative or discussion.

while it is okay to have differing views or philosophies, it is NOT okay to merely spout off a non sequitur as if it has weight or meaning to that conversation. Generally, that is done because that person does not have a clear understanding of the subject or knowledge worth conversing with.

I'm just sayin...

Yes, but let's get one thing straight here, the tail does not wag the dog. While there is a feedback loop, the important relationship is that price determines the hash rate in the long run. While some people would continue to mine, what happens to the hashrate if the price drops 50%? The network is self correcting and the marginal producers will go offline relative to electricity costs.

Yes, but when you use it like this when talking to someone that probably isn't involved in finance - the first thing they will think is, "Oh, there's a formula", not realizing that liquidity is not a constant but a variable. A huge variable. Supply of Bitcoin in the future is known. Demand in the future is an open question.

Satoshi said it like this:

Now, is that cost invariant? Nash's Ideal Money needs to be pegged to something cost invariant...am I off base that bitcoin creates cost invariant units?

So the halving is around April this year?

JESUS ****ING CHRIST YOU GUYS.....


THE COST TO MINE EACH BITCOIN DOESN'T ****ING CHANGE!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

NO IT ****ING DOESN'T......AND SOMETHING THAT HAS A COST INVARIANCE IS AN IDEAL PEG FOR MONEY NASH SAYS!!!!

That is actually untrue... the cost to mine Bitcoin constantly changes... depending on location, energy costs, equipment investments, taxation, labor, rents and leases and most importantly the value of BTC at any given moment.

difficulty algorithm changes and increases with rising hashrates meaning it makes it more difficult to score the reward... while the rewards are fixed, the network fees change or vary.

We agree on this point but is not unique to Bitcoin.

The first problem with ANY investing strategy is that people think they get it and therefore try to 'time the market'... in order to be able to effectively arbitrage an asset, you have to be very savvy and skilled. Most street investors can not dedicate enough time to an arbitrage strategy.. also btc runs 24/7... not wall street hours.

There is however one strategy that has the effect of reducing the variance of future demands and values... it's called 'Dollar Cost Averaging'.

When folks DCA, they don't have to worry about daily, monthly, yearly pricing... if it's an asset you believe in, you just continue to buy and this averages per unit costs.

To your point, There is another thing that comes to mind...

People always seem to use the point of demand variable as if it is somehow proof that the Asset does not act a a 'store of value'... one of Bitcoins most important feature.

Because Bitcoin goes up and down in price does not mean the asset is not a store of value OR effectively act as a hedge against inflation. Those that say these things have a time horizon that is entirely to short... you must have a longer time horizon for the effectiveness to become apparent, and by then it is already to late.