My bet is shorts are getting squeezed and are unwinding some of their positions in reaction to temporary soft inflation data creating a short term bounce. I don't think it's significant new capital coming into the market.

When house prices start dropping this year it will bust the consumer who has all of their equity in their house creating a massive recession. The Fed will then be forced to pivot back to QE and the inflation rate will start sky rocketing again and this time it won't stop at 10 percent it will be heading to 30 percent.

What's actually going up is Gold in anticipation of the above disastrous scenario.

Bitcoin mining rewards are cut in half every 210,000 blocks, or approximately once every 4 years. Various analysts have noted that market cycles appear to be tied to the halving (or halvening) event. Here's a detailed explanation and analysis by Rekt Capital from late 2020: https://rektcapital.substack.com/p/fouryearcycle

And here's a recent update:
https://twitter.com/rektcapital/stat...80797379670016

Like Bitcoin itself, the four-year-cycle theory is controversial. The main critique is "limited sample size"—i.e., those who see a pattern are basing it off limited data that could be random. Another common critique is that this market cycle will be different because the macro economic picture is far worse than it's ever been in Bitcoin's lifetime (high inflation, rising interest rates, a down stock market, possible recession, etc.).

This theory has also been attacked by Bitcoin maximalists. During the last bull market, BTC maxis said this time would be different, that the market was going to transition into a "super cycle" or permanent upward trend. That didn't happen, as we all know.

I would say this is largely inaccurate. A very small group of maxis were pushing the "Zhupercycle" narrative and it very well may have been psyops to find exit liquidity for their bags. By the way, I went back and checked receipts. Looks like my overall market calls were spot on. Unfortunately, my execution was not quite as flawless.

Calling it now for posterity. Next bull market peak: September 2025

MAY 23, 2021 - BTC: $34,770
JUN 11, 2021 - BTC: $37,335
JUN 12, 2021 - BTC: $35,550
AUG 31, 2021 - BTC: $47,165
NOV 20, 2021 - BTC: $59,700; SOL: $218

Anytime in 2025 seems very optimistic.

I prefer the ~6 months post halving hopium, so fall 2024.

How do you figure? The next halving is like Feb/Mar 2024. Are you saying you don't foresee a bull market until 2026 at a minimum if not later?

I could see a front running effect with each subsequent halving that reduces the length and intensity of the bull market. For example, the last time around the halving was May 2020 -> 6 months later the market started moving in November 2020 -> 4-6 months later the market effectively peaked in March - May 2021.

It's hard to say what would have happened if China didn't ban mining (again) in May 2021, if FTX wasn't short >100,000 customer BTC that had been sold into the market, if every CeFi institution hadn't been in the process of blowing themselves up, etc. From what I can tell, the cracks started appearing with DCG/3AC/GBTC as early as Jan-Feb 2021 so I feel this last bull cycle was a bit artificially suppressed with a healthy dose of diminishing returns. The bad news is price only did a 3.5x from the previous ATH. The good news is price still crashed ~80% after peaking.

Proud of nailing this call during peak Covid despair at a sub-$5000 BTC level. Gosh those days were fun.

Nice calls Johnny. Respect.

I don't put much weight into the halvings. My definitions for these types of terms might be off. Is a "bull market peak" the same as ATH? If so, I think 2025 is way optimistic. If you meant something like a smaller bull run, getting back into the 40k+ range then I think that's likely.




Either way, enjoyed the posts and hope you're right.

I mean may 2020 3k -> Nov 2021 69k

Anything is possible in micro stakes markets

Yeah anything is possible, but right now it seems like crypto really needs a breakthrough as far as functionality if we're going to see ATHs within the next 5 years... or the printers come back on.

Printers obviously coming back on. US at debt limit next week.

Extraordinary measures coming soon.

Yah, I’m using “bull market peak” as the final ATH before the next bear market sets in. You often need the benefit of hindsight to determine that point however.

My general thesis would be rangebound trading between 16-45k for the next 18-20 months until Aug/Sept 2024, momentum returning to the market in 4Q24 until the prior ATH is breached and then a bull market of indeterminate length which brings in the momentum traders, shitcoin szn, etc.

I think that could all happen under relatively similar market conditions (interest rates go up a bit more then stabilize then start going down again, global central banks keep printing to subsidize government deficit spending, etc.) Under these “business as usual” conditions I don’t think a 160-175k BTC peak in 2H25 is that much of a stretch. You’re talking 8-9x returns from these levels in 2.5 years.

nh. I've been a 4 year cycle skeptic this whole time but things do seem to be following extremely similar patterns to the last bull/bear markets and the fud from inflation/Ukraine/covid will likely be winding down by the next halving in March 2024. Bring on the 2025 euphoria.

I kinda consider the 2021 bull run to have peaked in April at 64k. The double top to 69k was some nonsense. I predict the next ATH will be in 2024 as the cycles start to get front run.

Bitcoin is literally a number go up algorithm. That number is the price in USD.

The debt ceiling doesn't matter to anything. It's just a made up number that will be changed to another made up number

For those of you with a hardware wallet;

How do you store the wallet / seed in a way that it is both (i) secure, and (ii) able to be accessed if anything happened to you?

I'm going travelling, so I don't want to take the Ledger with me but I'd want my family to be able to access the crypto if SHTF. Things like cryptosteel only seem useful if you have personal oversight of it (ie. it remains in the house where you are living) - I'm not sure its something you would freely leave with someone else or somewhere you won't revisit for a year or two.

safety deposit box?

If you're into the cycles stuff, this guy puts out tons of good content comparing current to past cycles. He is mostly in the April 2021 ATH camp as well which would imply the bear market has been playing out for 21 months now and has almost certainly formed its bottom.

Put it on a USB key and encrypt the data, using something like VeraCrypt. Use a long but memorable pass phrase or or generate a QR code for the password and either print it out or save to a file and store offsite somewhere. Also, use a a very high iteration count for the key derivation function to prevent brute-force hacking of the pass phrase should the key ever wind up in adversarial hands. LUKS encryption with Argon would be even better but it's not as widely supported.

speaking of ponzi waves

Schiff is one of those that has always had a target market with the "THE COLLAPSE IS COMING" crowd. Same schtick for 20+ years. A true ponzi has no substance behind the curtain. Nations debt works different. $20 trillion in GDP backing the debt is hardly a ponzi scheme. He knows that too he's just playing to his crowd.

I mean let's be serious.
The US will never get out of debt.
It has no plans to.
If someone was trying to raise funds for a business with the same ratio of revenue (GDP) to debt, you'd laugh them out of the room.