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05-14-2022 , 03:32 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by ThePLOGrinder
Get out of all this rubbish while you can. It will all go to zero one day.

All but one, grasshopper.
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05-14-2022 , 04:04 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by SoCalQuest
Options markets are pricing these probabilities for btc eoy.

Roughly a 9% probability of btc ending the year at 10k, 17% for 15k and 27% for 20k.
Interesting stuff

I was about to respond to the 25k comment that I put the probability of touching10k is 20%, and 20k is > 50%

Just a hunch, nothing fancy
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05-14-2022 , 04:10 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by SoCalQuest
Options markets are pricing these probabilities for btc eoy.

Roughly a 9% probability of btc ending the year at 10k, 17% for 15k and 27% for 20k.
What about for higher?

I have not going lower than 22k, solely because not going below 2017 ATH. #apemath
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05-14-2022 , 04:41 PM
Touching the number throughout the year is different. This is ending the year below these thresholds. It is much higher % to hit it at some point this year. 48% to finish above 30k, 29% to finish above 40k and 2.4% to finish above 100k.

I’ve seen numerous people note no cycle has gone below each previous cycle high. We have also never 8.4% inflation during bitcoins lifecycle and as aggressive fed as we have had now. So using our two cycle sample size might not work for this cycle.
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05-14-2022 , 06:01 PM
I know I asked about the correlation a few days ago, but anyone think as it has become a more mature asset class it is becoming more correlated? Seems like it since 2nd half of 2018
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05-14-2022 , 06:34 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by SoCalQuest
Ive seen numerous people note no cycle has gone below each previous cycle high. We have also never 8.4% inflation during bitcoins lifecycle and as aggressive fed as we have had now. So using our two cycle sample size might not work for this cycle.
Yes it's fair to say Bitcoin has only existed in macro bull times. Will be interesting to see how it handles the first recession.
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05-14-2022 , 10:55 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by ItDoesntMatter
What probability do you think orders at those levels get filled? I agree with everything in your last few posts, except I think there's a > 50% chance ~25k was the bottom (at least short-term -- I think we get a W-shape recovery). I bought at 29k.
I'm fairly bearish on the short to medium term. Probably like 30-35% it hits 20k. 50/50 we go back to 25
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Yesterday , 12:43 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by lonely_but_rich
I thought all the bitcoin miners were in Texas
LOL at Texas's "business friendly" political environment. They keep writing deregulation checks their constituents can't cash. Energy is cheap there, of course because their deregulated power grid with no government-mandated backups or weather protection fails whenever the season changes.

"With unseasonably hot weather driving record demand across Texas, ERCOT continues to work closely with the power industry to make sure Texans have the power they need. This afternoon, six power generation facilities tripped offline resulting in the loss of approximately 2,900 MW of electricity. At this time, all generation resources available are operating. We’re asking Texans to conserve power when they can by setting their thermostats to 78-degrees or above and avoiding the usage of large appliances (such as dishwashers, washers and dryers) during peak hours between 3 p.m. and 8 p.m. through the weekend."

Source: Statement by Electric Reliability Council of Texas Interim CEO, Brad Jones on current grid conditions

Last edited by pocket_zeros; Yesterday at 12:52 PM.
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Yesterday , 01:32 PM
It feels uncomfortable when they quote you
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Yesterday , 03:10 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by ThePLOGrinder
Scam currency and it is the greater fool theory. It WILL end badly.

There is some really good and interesting technology regarding the blockchain.
Ah, the ol blockchain not bitcoin argument. My time traveling bus must've taken a pit stop in 2018.

I encourage you to keep learning about bitcoin. Most people have held this opinion at some point (including myself) before falling down the rabbit hole.
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