Sats on Sats on Sats.

It's sats all the way down!

Right now is a good teaching example of how DCAing is better than aping into it in one lump sum.

DCA is for noobs with no conviction.

I dunno I tend to underestimate the resilience of BTC because it feels like a ponzi to me. So every time there is a major drop, I mistakenly think the bubble is finally bursting. But then it always recovers. So either it's a bubble that has more staying power than most bubbles, or I just don't understand BTC and am completely wrong about it being a ponzi.

That being said, this does feel worse to me only because the overall market situation is worse. Stocks tanking especially speculative Nasdaq, inflation, multiple Fed rate hikes incoming. The spigot of easy money has basically been wide open since BTC was invented, and all speculative assets have benefited. Now it is getting turned off. It's not good for ARKK and I don't see how it can be good for crypto either.

every day, check price, bad price

goblin town

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Oh nos. Don't check price. Bad.

I agree with this, but I’m getting ready to ape!

The bitcoin-industrial complex is really big, from the mega investors like the Winkelvoss twins and Michael Saylor, to the miners who have heavily invested in mining farms, to the companies who operate the exchanges, to the little guys who DCA in $100 a month and post memes on reddit. They are all going to do everything in their power to make sure that the bitcoin train doesn't stop.

The last time interest rates were in a period of being raised was during the crypto winter of 2017-2020, but that's a very small sample size. Bitcoin also had the big bubble during that period too.



Then there's the tether wildcard. How does a 50% crash in the price of bitcoin affect tether? If they printed tether out of thin air and bought bitcoin with it, then the value of their holdings would be down drastically. If they were 100% legit and backed by cash and cash equivalents like US treasuries then I assume the price of bitcoin would not affect it at all.

It's really easy to outperform DCA in crypto and I am basically a newb who copies some people on Twitter.

So salty my 34k bids didn't get hit ffs

maybe still a chance

Tether will be fine. I'm much more worried about what the gigachad whales like Saylor and Musk will do if/when their BTC are underwater.

i saw that dip, somebody out there did nicely

The guys from that "TechnicalRoundup" channel that you've recommended in the past were calling low 30's for months now as a possible longer term bottom and good buy back spot. Since you've brought that channel up I've been following most of their content and they've been fairly spot on with all their calls since late November. It's short termed bounced off some levels they've suggested as a short term scalps and ran into resistance at other levels. They also always give an analysis on where they'd buy back into during a reversal.

Their analysis as traders has been fun to watch and even if you are just a hodler I think at the very least they give longer term hodlers that don't want to trade a better idea of more optimal price points to buy more into the market.

BTC has been trading like a high beta tech stock for a while. I don't this this happens but if the S&P goes to 2k then the nasdaq is going under 7k, and BTC isn't maaaaybe going lower than 30k. It's going to 10k.

The easy money gained from the excess money printing was gained at the expense of the person living pay check to check who was robbed of their purchasing power. There are many other reasons to support bitcoin but the foundation is built around this in my opinion. Why should a government entity be able to rob an individual of their value and hand it to someone else or themselves by rigging the system in a certain way to their own benefit or the benefit of other individuals.

Pretty good chance you get 24k.

I think BTC can make $10,000 without needing the Nasdaq under 7000. The Nasdaq under 7000 would be something alright. This place would be buzzing.

Because 99% of people don't understand this and the 1% that do are the ones that benefit from it. Everyone complains about income tax, but no one complains, or even seems to know, about the inflation tax.

I thought it was really easy?

But seriously, if you have a pile of cash to invest you can maybe try to time a local bottom, but if you invest part of your income on a regular basis, then DCA naturally becomes a great strategy for you. Timing the market requires a lot of knowledge and experience, and it's very easy to trick yourself into thinking you understand it better than you actually do. Trusting someone else's advise is also difficult, if you don't have the expertise yourself how can you judge others'? Track records are good, but if there are a lot of "analysts" and always new ones popping up, some will always have a good track record for a long time, it's like the random animals predicting sports, e.g., Paul the octopus.

I think the best approach unless you are a professional investor/trader, is to decide how large part of your portfolio you want it to be and just getting to that percentage as fast as your risk tolerance lets you. We might be going down further, but are you really more qualified than the market to make that prediction? Also, what do you gain by being right vs what you lose by being wrong? If you want bitcoin you probably believe it will see continued adoption and follow an exponential trend, at least for the next few decades while it moves up the adoption S-curve. If someone manages to hit a bottom for their entry into the market they should be happy that they were lucky. The skill lies in being in the market and staying in, not flipping out and selling for a small profit, or panicking and selling a dip.

There's also the capital gains tax on what isn't really any gains at all, just prices inflated by their money printing. Still they want 30 %, or whatever, when you want to spend your hard earned, and already taxed, money.

Btc down -> its a bubble
Btc up -> Btc best thing ever

awice twitter is definitely something right now

I never understood why inflation is such a boogeyman for bitcoin proponents. If people were investing in bitcoin because it is a hedge against inflation, then why not also invest in TIPS or precious metals or real estate, which hedge against inflation as well? Bitcoin is up thousands of percent in the last few years while all those are up much less. Bitcoin does have some advantages such as portability, fungibility and low fees but nothing that justifies the recent price increase. If the massive increase in the value of bitcoin is justified by the increase in the money supply (the real inflation) the last few years, then why aren't people snapping up other inflation hedges and driving their prices up? They would be on sale at a huge discount right now.

And I don't even understand why anyone would want to invest so much into an inflation hedge in the first place. Shouldn't you try to maximize returns as much as possible? An investment whose purpose is to hedge against inflation is setting a pretty low ceiling for returns, as inflation has been in the low single digits for most of recent history. Why not invest in something that will beat inflation? If your investment does what it's supposed to do, i.e. "hedge against inflation," then you're limiting returns and if it doesn't do what it's supposed to do, then why are you investing in it?

Re: judging other's advice, I guess the same way a low-stakes poker player can get differing advice on how to play a hand from two high-stakes players and choose one over the other.

I mean it's not just filtering for good track record, although that's one step. I've learned to ignore anyone who spends more than 5 seconds talking about on-chain analysis, I would probably also be inclined to ignore anyone who labels themselves an "analyst" of BTC as you put it. Some people have a good track record but a bullish bias, so when they are bearish on something you can probably weight it more heavily (and vice versa for those with bearish bias). Some people just seem very sharp based on their reasoning (anyone who believed in S2F is probably a poor judge of this).

I dunno, maybe I've been lucky but it's worked pretty well so far.