Quote:
Originally Posted by Mat Cauthon
That much? My guess would have been a lot less.
It's certainly less. I just used BTC and ETH (both 41%) as a proxy for the rest of the market. Those two alone get you to a realized cap of 25% of the total market cap.
My guess is the ADA/AVAX/DOT/LUNA/SOL and DOGE/SHIBA's of the world are significantly lower like 10-20%. If you throw a generous 20% realized cap on the rest of market that gets you a blended realized cap of 33% ($850 bn). LTC surprisingly has a 70% realized cap which seems bullish to me from a lindy/fair distribution perspective.
That is why I think the "supercycle" meme is overblown and those caught buying into it will be the exit liquidity for the influencers pushing the narrative. Once whales and inefficient miners start unloading their BTC en masse and the marginal buyers dry up it will kickstart the beginning of the next bear market. There are so many VC coins
(*cough* SOL *cough*) sitting on non-existent cost bases that will pull whatever liquidity they can from the market and I expect another brutal alt bear market.
Interestingly, when BTC peaked in Dec. 2017 and ETH in Jan. 2018 they had a 22% and 19% realized cap to market cap respectively, meaning we're nowhere near the top in my opinion. LTC was 26% when peaking in Dec. 2017 and it's current realized cap is 2x as big as then while price is still -40% below ATH.