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Bitcoins - digital currency Bitcoins - digital currency

11-19-2021 , 11:58 AM
I was going to leave this alone, but since you brought my name up...
Quote:
Originally Posted by johnnyBuz
As has been stated ad nauseam for years, it's not a vehicle to park money that you will need in a day, a week, a month or even a year from now.
So you agree bitcoin is not a savings account, good, now we can move on. It's an investment that, if you put money into it, you hope it will pay off at some future date. Many, like you, think it is inevitable that it will pay off big time. Others think it will ultimately fail. Most are somewhere in between.



Also, just fyi, I don't even have a savings account. My cash flow is sufficient and the risk of losing it are such that I don't need one. But I do have savings that are invested. See the difference? And I don't believe I have ever commented one way or another on if bitcoin is included in those investments. So leave me out of your "have fun staying poor" memes.
Bitcoins - digital currency Quote
11-19-2021 , 01:11 PM
I pretty clearly just stated it's a savings technology that means different things to different groups of people depending on their perspective. Given it's an open source protocol that is capable of being upgraded (ie: SegWit/LN, Taproot), its use cases in the future may be quite different from today, just like its use cases today (corporate financial asset, digital gold, instantaneous & free remittances) are quite different from 10 years ago (proof of concept transferring valueless tokens, dark net/silk road transactions, Wikileaks circumventing the banking blockade against them).
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11-19-2021 , 01:25 PM
Slight recovery for BTC now. Bull trap?

Quote:
Originally Posted by imjosh
ok ok I need the price to go up. I cant take this anymore. Every day I am checking the price and its dipping. Every day, check price, bad price. I cant take this anymore. I have over-invested -- by a lot. It is what it is... but I need price to GO UP already. Can devs do something?
Quote:
Originally Posted by onemoretimes
LMAO. I don't come around here often anymore, but If I recall you were into the **** coins back in the day.

You need to reach a point of Zen when it comes to bitcoin. Only reason to feel like you are is if your trading on leverage.

HODL brah. Easy game. You sound like your going to **** it all up massively.
Well played, Josh.
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11-19-2021 , 01:51 PM
I can’t believe anyone took that seriously
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11-19-2021 , 03:49 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Didace
I was going to leave this alone, but since you brought my name up...So you agree bitcoin is not a savings account, good, now we can move on. It's an investment that, if you put money into it, you hope it will pay off at some future date. Many, like you, think it is inevitable that it will pay off big time. Others think it will ultimately fail. Most are somewhere in between.



Also, just fyi, I don't even have a savings account. My cash flow is sufficient and the risk of losing it are such that I don't need one. But I do have savings that are invested. See the difference? And I don't believe I have ever commented one way or another on if bitcoin is included in those investments. So leave me out of your "have fun staying poor" memes.
I'm sure the average african or south american is glad to have the opportunities to put their "savings" to work just like you

https://www.google.com/amp/s/bitcoin...oin-revolution
Theres countless articles like this, I just dont care enough anymore to link more.

BItCoIn iS nOT a SaVinGs aCcOunt!! Check wikipedia bro! Lmfao
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11-19-2021 , 04:00 PM
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11-19-2021 , 04:45 PM
If i invest 50k in bitcoin is that bright? If it's just something that will maintain value, i'd rather go with Tim Horton's. LOL. Depends on price, i guess. Jaime staples did it... but i'm not sure why. Should i buy 50k worth of bitcoin stuff? I got this stock stuff mastered after this appointment with my bank. LOL. And i got a business course in a month. So, i don't know what to do...
Bitcoins - digital currency Quote
11-19-2021 , 04:52 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Shot_taker
If i invest 50k in bitcoin is that bright? If it's just something that will maintain value, i'd rather go with Tim Horton's. LOL. Depends on price, i guess. Jaime staples did it... but i'm not sure why. Should i buy 50k worth of bitcoin stuff? I got this stock stuff mastered after this appointment with my bank. LOL. And i got a business course in a month. So, i don't know what to do...
Idk bro it sounds like you'd sell on the next 80% drawdown so I would say no
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11-19-2021 , 06:27 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by kekeeke
I'm sure the average african or south american is glad to have the opportunities to put their "savings" to work just like you
What, if anything, does that have to do with the question at hand?
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11-19-2021 , 08:30 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Shot_taker
If i invest 50k in bitcoin is that bright? If it's just something that will maintain value, i'd rather go with Tim Horton's. LOL. Depends on price, i guess. Jaime staples did it... but i'm not sure why. Should i buy 50k worth of bitcoin stuff? I got this stock stuff mastered after this appointment with my bank. LOL. And i got a business course in a month. So, i don't know what to do...
Wait until the 80% drawdown then buy
Bitcoins - digital currency Quote
11-19-2021 , 10:13 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Shot_taker
If i invest 50k in bitcoin is that bright? If it's just something that will maintain value, i'd rather go with Tim Horton's. LOL. Depends on price, i guess. Jaime staples did it... but i'm not sure why. Should i buy 50k worth of bitcoin stuff? I got this stock stuff mastered after this appointment with my bank. LOL. And i got a business course in a month. So, i don't know what to do...
Take a shot
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11-20-2021 , 02:10 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by kekeeke
Idk bro it sounds like you'd sell on the next 80% drawdown so I would say no
I really hope there isn't another 80% drawdown. I've been in the space for a long time now and understand they were common place over the past decade but at some point you'd hope for some sort of stability. 10 to 20% drawdowns for various reasons seem rational, especially in crypto, but at some point don't people expect the 50%+ drawdowns to go away? Especially at this price or higher. Just so much money would get wiped out in an 80% drawdown that I'd have to imagine anyone sane would start to contemplate it being a ponzi at that point. This is all disregarding a possible black swan event.
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11-20-2021 , 03:37 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by cneuy3
I really hope there isn't another 80% drawdown. I've been in the space for a long time now and understand they were common place over the past decade but at some point you'd hope for some sort of stability. 10 to 20% drawdowns for various reasons seem rational, especially in crypto, but at some point don't people expect the 50%+ drawdowns to go away? Especially at this price or higher. Just so much money would get wiped out in an 80% drawdown that I'd have to imagine anyone sane would start to contemplate it being a ponzi at that point. This is all disregarding a possible black swan event.
You might not like it but get used to it. Global equities lost over 50% of their value from >$60 trillion to <$30 trillion in between 2007-2009, and global real estate markets lost trillions more.

Crypto is a <$2.5 trillion asset class. It could go to $0 tomorrow and have no effect on the rest of the world. The majority of the crypto market cap is fugazi / paper gains with no exit liquidity. The realized cap or the amount of capital that's actually been injected into the asset class is probably around $1 trillion.

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11-20-2021 , 06:07 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by johnnyBuz
Crypto is a <$2.5 trillion asset class. It could go to $0 tomorrow and have no effect on the rest of the world. The majority of the crypto market cap is fugazi / paper gains with no exit liquidity. The realized cap or the amount of capital that's actually been injected into the asset class is probably around $1 trillion.
That much? My guess would have been a lot less.
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11-20-2021 , 01:49 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by cneuy3
I really hope there isn't another 80% drawdown. I've been in the space for a long time now and understand they were common place over the past decade but at some point you'd hope for some sort of stability. 10 to 20% drawdowns for various reasons seem rational, especially in crypto, but at some point don't people expect the 50%+ drawdowns to go away? Especially at this price or higher. Just so much money would get wiped out in an 80% drawdown that I'd have to imagine anyone sane would start to contemplate it being a ponzi at that point. This is all disregarding a possible black swan event.
Bitcoin is still a baby, MC is low, and regular FUD is common place- and impactful in the short-term. I think that over time as it matures and the MC grows as adoption becomes common place, FUD will lessen, and volatility as a percentage of price will significantly lessen.
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11-20-2021 , 02:52 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Mat Cauthon
That much? My guess would have been a lot less.
It's certainly less. I just used BTC and ETH (both 41%) as a proxy for the rest of the market. Those two alone get you to a realized cap of 25% of the total market cap.

My guess is the ADA/AVAX/DOT/LUNA/SOL and DOGE/SHIBA's of the world are significantly lower like 10-20%. If you throw a generous 20% realized cap on the rest of market that gets you a blended realized cap of 33% ($850 bn). LTC surprisingly has a 70% realized cap which seems bullish to me from a lindy/fair distribution perspective.

That is why I think the "supercycle" meme is overblown and those caught buying into it will be the exit liquidity for the influencers pushing the narrative. Once whales and inefficient miners start unloading their BTC en masse and the marginal buyers dry up it will kickstart the beginning of the next bear market. There are so many VC coins (*cough* SOL *cough*) sitting on non-existent cost bases that will pull whatever liquidity they can from the market and I expect another brutal alt bear market.

Interestingly, when BTC peaked in Dec. 2017 and ETH in Jan. 2018 they had a 22% and 19% realized cap to market cap respectively, meaning we're nowhere near the top in my opinion. LTC was 26% when peaking in Dec. 2017 and it's current realized cap is 2x as big as then while price is still -40% below ATH.
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11-21-2021 , 03:56 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by MeleaB
@cryptowhale [who is quoted in the article] is an idiot of course. Here's a video from InvestAnswers on the situation which is worth a look.

Wow this guy's videos are great, ton of detail for how frequently he posts them. Got any other recs for content like this?
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11-21-2021 , 06:41 AM
Wish I would have seen that before I bought more at 65K last week. I also watch that guy a fair bit. I'm not a diehard crypto investor and mostly just hold btc but the two crypto channels I frequent the most for information are his channel and the "coin bureau" channel.
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11-21-2021 , 09:57 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by imjosh
Wow this guy's videos are great, ton of detail for how frequently he posts them. Got any other recs for content like this?
Digital Asset News is good too.

Pro Tip : Play all videos at 1.25x or 1.5x. (Every morning I put on my headphones and box while listening to InvestAnswers, DAN, and Coin Bureau. Increasing the speed enables me to get through more content (obviously!))
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11-21-2021 , 11:56 AM
Coin Bureau feels like someone has that guy's family tied up somewhere forcing him to pump different tokens.
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11-21-2021 , 12:43 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by johnnyBuz
It's certainly less. I just used BTC and ETH (both 41%) as a proxy for the rest of the market. Those two alone get you to a realized cap of 25% of the total market cap.

My guess is the ADA/AVAX/DOT/LUNA/SOL and DOGE/SHIBA's of the world are significantly lower like 10-20%. If you throw a generous 20% realized cap on the rest of market that gets you a blended realized cap of 33% ($850 bn). LTC surprisingly has a 70% realized cap which seems bullish to me from a lindy/fair distribution perspective.

That is why I think the "supercycle" meme is overblown and those caught buying into it will be the exit liquidity for the influencers pushing the narrative. Once whales and inefficient miners start unloading their BTC en masse and the marginal buyers dry up it will kickstart the beginning of the next bear market. There are so many VC coins (*cough* SOL *cough*) sitting on non-existent cost bases that will pull whatever liquidity they can from the market and I expect another brutal alt bear market.

Interestingly, when BTC peaked in Dec. 2017 and ETH in Jan. 2018 they had a 22% and 19% realized cap to market cap respectively, meaning we're nowhere near the top in my opinion. LTC was 26% when peaking in Dec. 2017 and it's current realized cap is 2x as big as then while price is still -40% below ATH.
Good post. Thanks for the numbers, and I agree with your analysis.
Bitcoins - digital currency Quote
11-21-2021 , 03:03 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by lonely_but_rich
Coin Bureau feels like someone has that guy's family tied up somewhere forcing him to pump different tokens.
funny take on him. He definitely introduces alot of new tokens into the mix but I feel like he gives good analysis on the possible pros and cons of each token that he makes in the video. I know all the top guys do the disclaimer prior to talking about their financial topic which is wise but I really don't get the feeling that he is purposely shilling something to his audience.

I just feel like he is consumed in the space and trying to spread information. He has made many great informative videos on other crypto topics that don't even deal with specific tokens. If you are beginner in the crypto space I think he covers alot of great information on which exchanges to deal with first, software wallets, hardware wallets, defi, etc.
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11-21-2021 , 06:29 PM
Coin Bureau seems like way too much alt coin stuff to me which I'm not interested in. The thing I like about InvestAnswers is the heavy focus on BTC and ETH
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11-21-2021 , 08:50 PM
InvestAnswer is very logical & honest which is refreshing when crypto is close to 99% scams.

Not to brag too much but he just had an interview with greg foss who preaches bitcoin as a savings account.

Too ez peanut brain mickey
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11-21-2021 , 10:04 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by The Apex
Newest uncommon core is mandatory listen.
Really is

Su Zhu going off on twitter lately btw
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