Nice math, thanks, I guess I underestimate the potential upside short term.

I've always been too conservative

By that Maths my kids should all reach 12 feet tall.

Benjamin Cowen also puts a lot of effort into analyzing and comparing data from previous bitcoin market cycles. The basic idea is that the length is increasing and seeing diminishing returns for each subsequent cycle. Worth checking out for those interested.

Will be interesting to see how this cycle plays out. I know a lot of us have been waiting a long time to see what happens. Its been a fun ride so far

On the one hand it's interesting and definitely fun to see and predict how this cycle will play out.

On the other hand it also doesn't matter. Bitcoin is a 100x improvement compared to fiat and gold. Time is on Bitcoin's side and economic reality will push Bitcoin's price in fiat terms higher.

I didn’t do the math. For starters, you don’t mention an interest rate. But that is not the point. My reaction was just to the general tone and sentiment of the statement.

Of course, if we make assumptions we can crunch numbers and post a value. But your predicted outcome is basically one of an infinite number of futures. I am not trying to be negative, but do you actually feel that you have predicted the future 30 years out? Maybe your prediction lies in some probabilistic sweet spot. But you will have to forgive my sentiment.

We are talking about a terribly complex system, and the thought that you can effectively predict it 30 years out is ridiculous IMO. Let alone that you can do it from a single parameter.

Tell me, what probability did you assign (and neglect to mention) for the governments of the world effectively killing DeFi? What about nuclear war that ships 80%+ of miners back to the Stone Age? Etc.

Diminishing returns % wise or $ wise? If it's the former, if the last cycle was 1200% and this one only goes up 800% I'm fine with that.

I dunno. When I see these guys talking about logarathmic curves and fibonacci breakouts, all I see is guys looking for patterns that don't exist. (eg, I watched one of his videos from Oct 2020 where he predicted an eventual fair market value for BTC of 40K and seemed to think it would be around 10-12K in 2021.).

I'm a much bigger believer in the on chain analytics that tend to indicate supply/demand changes.

He thinks diminishing returns % wise AND lengthening cycles such that this one won't peak until deep into 2022. The fist part is reasonable due to the law of large numbers but not quite sure about the second.

Most all technical analysis is like this.

The lengthening of the cycle also makes sense, as technical improvements and services take longer to develop and to be adopted by the same share of users, and a larger part of the investors that buy into this improved ecosystem consist of slower moving entities.

Cowen's entire thesis from 2019 and 2020 was that btc was going to take until late 2021 to reach 20k. Literally his entire schtick was based on lengthening cycles and no ATH breakout until right about now actually, he was only off by a year. Only used log regression bands and other math stuff, no attention paid on chain, macro events, news etc. He was somewhat interesting back then but when you base your entire market thesis on something and its wildly off, don't see why people paying attention to him.

The real question should be if your TA portfolio is beating the just buy&hold portfolio cause in a bull market everything works. Most traders won't be able to outperform the last one.

horoscope for the girls, TA for the boys.... I need my opium

No probability of collapse assigned, housenuts said 20% risk free, nobody even stopped for a second to question that statement. Only after I showed the numbers, everyone was like wtf that is not sustainable. At least we learned something - laser eyes and being good at math is mutually exclusive.

I posted in the Ethereum thread because it's related to defi, not Bitcoin. There's stablecoin pools on yearn, curve, convex in that range.
The risks are smart contract bugs or one of the pooled stablecoins losing peg.

And you genuinely believe DeFi business model (collateralize your shitcoins to buy more shitcoins) is legit and sustainable in the long run?


Smart contract bugs puts the whole code is law in perspective. More like code is lol hehe

You sound salty; it is early, we don't know exactly what internet money and banking will look like but borrowing/lending without an extraordinary expensive bureaucratic level of institutions as intermediary is a valid businessmodel for the future.

I can't explain stuff better than the pro's but if you are genuinely interested in the question you can watch Gary Gensler his coursework for free here :

https://ocw.mit.edu/courses/sloan-sc...ideo-lectures/


If you don't click links you can go to MITopencourseware blockchain and money and search for Gary

wagmi

No, it was early in December 2017 when I first got in EthLend, future of finance. 3.5 years later nobody is using it for anything other than betting their shitcoin B is going to outperform their collateralized shitcoin A so they can pay back in time and keep the gainzzzz. It sounds a lot like gambling because it is.

We don't know what it will look like, but overcollateralized loans with outrageously expensive gas fees prone to rugpulls, hacks and bugs is definitely not the way.

Why would I be salty?

.

Tax related question.

My fantasy football league wants to have the $50 buy in be in the form of bitcoin. Do I have a tax liability if I hold the bitcoin and then distribute to the winners wallets (which most still have to setup)?

Thanks! I’ll hang up and listen.

Lol, great idea!

Not a tax advisor but there should be no tax implication until the bitcoin is sold so everyone will need to know the coat basis when the bitcoin was acquired.

Not sure what your tax implication would be for aggregating the funds, making a single BTC purchase, and then disbursing BTC to the winner, second place, etc. I imagine nothing since you’d never be cashing it out to fiat, but this is where a de minimas exception would come in handy.

Bitcoin has the potential to be a real game changer

It already has been a changer. I woulda could a shoulda bough bitcoin a long time ago.and would have been a multi millionaire by.now. I did not.which causes great resentment.

That said, I still firmly believe it will eventually crash down.....it will fluctuate and it may go to to.incredible heights(as if $50( is not incredible) but it will eventually crash simply because all it is is an equation with nothing to.support it except what folks are willing to.pay for it.

It kind of reminds of the South Park episode where they 'stole' space money....

By eventually if you mean in the next 10 or 20 years you are wrong. If you mean eventually as in the next 100 to 1000 years then yeah maybe. All fiat currencies end at zero. USD and BTC both. I'd bet USD hits zero before BTC though honestly.