I have a buddy who loves Nexus Mutual. I soured on it when the dude got hacked.

Look into DIP or DSLA or CVR if you're into insurance. I was in DIP for a while but sold near the top. Haven't really looked into it since, but some smart people I know like it. Meh, I'm gonna grab bigger bags of EWT first.

My policy on insurance in general is that it is a negative ev investment, sold to people that struggle with variance. I yield farm in multiple pools on multiple platforms to spread the risks.

Two Shae,

I think a good line for BTC 5yrs from today is 75% per year. What you think?

So you are saying BTC at $900,000 in five years? That wouldn't shock me.

This is as good a place to start as any.

Oh no that’s def not what I was saying lol. Way too high (though not impossible at all). I think a price in low to mid 200k’s in 5 years to the day is a good and prob conservative line.

I can’t see it taking 5 years for bitcoin to hit 200k.

Why do you think growth will slow?

Insurance is an important financial primitive, but generally not one I'm interested in using. It will need to be significantly more developed with larger availability for others to get involved. There are some other insurance protocols like the one from Yam as well.

Like my good friend nutsinho would say: "Insurance is for fish who can't handle the variance". As someone who has been bankroll managing / high stakes gambling for a long-time, I diversify and size my bets so a bug resulting in loss of funds would sting but not ruin me.

yeah 56,000*1.75^5 = 919k. If you think mid 200k's, then your answer is approx 35%/year for 5 years. I would definitely take the under on 75%/year for 5 years. No comment otherwise.

Avoiding Crypto Taxes

I mean, I was talking about the o/u 5 years from today. Not when it first hits 250kish, which is a different discussion/prediction.

Other than that, 2 reasons. First being a bit of mental cope. I have very large position (for me, coming from background of passive index funds with stocks, and solely supporting a family on poker) so I like to purposely keep expectations low out loud to keep myself in check a bit. And second, I’ve gotten vibe from Two Shae he is anything but a btc mega bull. So was secretly hoping he would give a concrete o/u if given a non-standard/reasonable btc bull o/u line. I’d take the over on 225k though .


Bold take on the under 900k+ line . Appreciate the discussion/comments though, thanks.

Very reasonable response. Thanks.

900K in 5 years is a fair line. Difficult to say. It's a really fair line. I expect the U.S. to be balls deep in total collapse by then. -shrugs-

Rip bitcoin

I suspect your issues go deeper (pun intended).

If the US goes "balls deep in total collapse" in 5 years good luck surviving for much long afterwards.

Why people think it's going to work out well for them if there's a complete and utter collapse is beyond me.

speculation/gambling justifications are funny that way

It's fairly obvious that the US is undergoing some big form of inflation. It's also hilarious that the US continues to report the same amount of [under reported] inflation presently that it has in the past. The US loves to claim 2% while actually doing 5-6% under normal circumstances. But all common sense points to a true present coronavirus rate of around 11-12%.

Meanwhile the stock market has been absolutely booming with no underlying basis as for why this should be (other than inflation). This is siphoning all the little extra money away from the poors and into the hands of asset holders. Stimmy checks are truly a massive con on many different levels.

As for what that all means for Bitcoin long term? Presumably something quite good. But it's hard to say. There's just too many weird variables at play with such a massive economy. It would be rather easy to construct scenarios where this doesn't play out as expected.

As far as an o/u line for 5 years from now since that seems to be a hot topic presently... I think I gotta roll with bout 350k. But really, I see more run outs where we get not a lot of movement for a while or a ton of movement that could push things to that "900k" mark quoted earlier meaning that the error bars on any o/u will be quite large. It all depends if there's a corporate cascade fomo event, legitimate hyperinflation, sovereign investment, interesting new technology or whatever else.

I think there's a massive bull case for ETH as well, potentially even bigger than BTC presently, but that's a different thread.

Perhaps you could expand on this "obvious" take of yours.

Its a gross semantic error you make. I can help.

If you define inflation as x, you don't then argue that inflation is not x but y.

How does the cb define inflation?

(it gets less hilarious when you use words properly)

Aww, wittol railbird wants my attention!

Enjoy the last remnants of your American Exceptionalism while you can!

10 days now all 5 transactions still showing 0/3 confirmations on blockchain.com. Anyone hear or have this happen to them are my btc's just stuck forever at 0/3 confirmations? They sent a basic email saying there's nothing to worry about but, obviously i am it's a lot of money.

Isn't blockchain.com centralized?

Let me guess .
The fed wants inflation
The government wants inflation
They have the printing press
They do QE to lower interest rates
They control inflation stats .

It's probably more like "I think inflation should be defined in a different way than what is normal."

Why ?
Inflation is simply the weakening of a currency value by different factors .
The amount of factors influencing the US dollar going down is by far the prevalent tendency.