just accept you are not going to catch the top, and follow risk-management instead.

empirically a very small % of the dollars in the market can sell within x% of the top. If you're not an expert, your edge in trying to pick the top is surely negative.

stock to flow is complete hogwash

You can pick something reasonably close to the top by starting from first principles:

1) The *only* thing that can ever be done with BTC,, is sell for USD
2) The fundamentals (network, security, emission) are effectively stable
3) The price cycles around a sustainable level supported by the total energy in the system (traders, exchanges, use, mindshare)

This leaves an iterative front running game based on the amount of paper profit being held in the system. By definition (from principle #1), every coin is for sale at all times. When paper profits are high, traders will start to take. A lot of posters I generally disagree with I have to commend for dumping here at around 50-60k and de-risking

Everyone has been long since the TSLA tweet, yet there is no new money in the system. Spot volume is in complete decline. If you cash out now, that money is safe and waiting

Why go all in at these levels when the real edge comes from having dry powder (either to rebuy btc lower, or to find the next uncrowded trade)

case3's IQ over/under 80, what do you guys think?

Even -- especially -- experts know how foolhardy it is to try to pick the top. You take profit in levels.

The rule of thumb is keep at least 25% of your BR in stables. Many go up to 50%.

For most retail investors -- upper-middle class who don't know what they are doing -- someone like Benjamin Cowen is really your best bet. Super conservative, mathematical, and does the work for you ftmp with dynamic risk levels.

Trying to become a trader will fail spectacularly *most* of the time. Because you have to have the psychology for it. Most don't. If you had a successful poker career, you likely do.

Because, one, the more decisions you are making, the more likely one of those decisions will be poor.

And since, two, the easiest slam-dunk decision is to buy bitcoin and never sell it...

You end up overcomplicating things and unwittingly competing with professionals/manipulative institutions. This is very difficult and dangerous.

Or you can simply buy and hodl.

Three, the tax implications.

Four, the opportunity cost in attention. While you're spending all this time trying to excel at that, you are losing the opportunity to research projects, to research the macro--R&D. To help people.

This is why DCA'ing a % of every money into BTC you put into crypto is a no-brainer. It is an extremely difficult strategy to top. And to top it, you have to put in an inordinate amount of work.

If you want to speculate, no problem: allocate a % of your BR no larger than 5% to do so.

The most effective things are boring. Yes, this is boring. It's also extraordinarily effective. If you want to chase the dopamine high, go for it. Good luck. Hope you can beat people like me and people way, way better than me.

1) is false. 2) is false. What does 3) even mean? But I'm going with false here as well, can't think of any way that it's not. I understand why you are wrong so often, when you base your analysis on faulty assumptions.

Every coin is not for sale. Dry powder is good, but incurring tax by selling, just so you can buy in cheaper, is generally a bad idea. Taking some off, diversifying and putting some into other asset classes can be a good idea for many, depending on risk tolerance and personal circumstances.

Posts something with ideas, numbers, arguments:

> youre sub 80 iq
> is false
> *edit* moon coming 100%, so you are wrong

I'm here to have my ideas torn apart, as soon as I ask questions (tether, leverage, usd flows, exchange mechanics, etc) the tough guys vanish (

I addressed every single one of your points.

Smoking is bad for your health, yo.

Have you observed 2p2 long? This is one of the troll-iest message boards out there.

You keep stating things as facts, that clearly are not or have been proven wrong over and over. You would get more discussion if you were actually discussing, instead of debating or lecturing.

another one vanishes, sad

Could tear apart my assertions, but will not deign to as they do not meet a standard for 'discussion' vs 'debating'. This is a new one.

YTD volume has averaged $67 billion per day and that will increase significantly towards the end of the year. The totality of 2p2 BTC holdings could probably sell the top many times over without having any effect on the market. The addition of late stage capital should allow most people to trim their positions or get out entirely within 20% of the top which is the equivalent of $16k in 2017. If you exited most/all of your position in 2017 at >16k you should be patting yourself on the back.

Why do you say that? Do you think it's just coincidence the S2F value has acted as support or resistance at various points throughout Bitcoin's history and price has been reliably tracking since the 4Q breakout?

ITT we learn almost anyone can sell at the top, the bid is just right there waiting for anyone to hit it. 1T in bagholders daily on standby as we speak.



S2F is absurd for a very simple reason:

> Is the price pushed by new USD attempting to speculate on a higher sale price?
> Or is it pulled by some abstract supply balance equation?

If there was no Coinbase, and millions of new retail could not have piled in, how would S2F have pulled the price up?

Is it more absurd than these awful takes of yours? If you don't mind doing your best Jackson Pollock impression and blindly draw some squigglies on a linear price chart for the rest of 2021 the thread is dying to see your EOY target.

MAR 11, 2020: BTC $7800
MAR 22, 2020: BTC $5800

Fair enough, maybe that was a bit harsh. Let's go through it.

1), you can obviously already use it to buy lots of things; drugs, houses, VPNs, etc. It can be used for stable coins, side chains, identity, timestamping. A lot of price is based on speculation on future use cases, they are not all revolving around selling it for FIAT.

2), the network grows exponentially in almost every regard. The hashrate/security grows exponentially. Emission is stable in the short and medium term, but goes down in the long term.

3), I'm unclear about what you mean, but it sounds like technical trading trying to predict the price movement. It also sounds like it assumes a static "total energy in the system", where my guess would be that it grows over time.

I don't think that's how models work.

stock-to-flow is hogwash because it predicts that bitcoin's price will go to infinity when there are no new coins to mine. the fundamental problem with it is it fails to account for the fact that as the price goes up, coins people were holding become available for sale; the new coins mined are not the only coins being sold. People also sell for lots of other reasons, etc. BTCs supply before and after halvings is exactly the same: 21MM.

This is trivial to understand -- if you have some allocation (let's call it 20%) to BTC, and the price skyrockets such that your 20% allocation becomes a 95% allocation, you should be selling.

case3 is a midwit for sure. Thinks you can trivially identify near the top, but also called 10k the permanent top. DoesNotCompute.gif

1) You are not following me. BTC is an asset that offers NO:

> Dividend
> Shareholder rights or powers
> Intrinsic value (beauty, inspiration, etc)
> Consumption ability
> Productive capacity or potential


So all you can do is sell it. That's it. Don't get caught up that some people take it without an interim conversion step (while always valuing it at the USD sell price), that makes no difference

Even if you use it to farm defi, or whatever else, you are ultimately exchanging (selling) BTC for some other claim

2) You are simply agreeing with me and re-stating my point

3) This is nothing to do with TA. Also why would it assume static total energy, the whole point is the price is ultimately a reflection of the number of traders, the amount of exchanges, adoption, etc. This energy changes over time.

Traders push the price above this level in hype cycles, and below this level in capitulation cycles

He's gone on record (pre-2020 halving) stating he thinks the model will only be viable for "one or two halving cycles" before breaking for the infinity reasons mentioned. If he's still posting publicly 2-3 years from now (which I suspect he won't be) then I imagine he would update or create a new model. He fully expects a bear market to follow in 2022 with a sizable correction and adds the disclaimer to every podcast he's on that "all models are wrong, but some are useful."

If my S2F criticism is wrong, then tear me apart. Answer the Coinbase question for me, it should be so simple

Keep posting those charts, I called for hyper bullish (this was during despair) return to 10k as likely. Then when 12k fell to only 10k and ran into a new wave of solid support in the fall I flipped bullish again. I would love it if you could explain where I am wrong, but you never put anything up.

2shae:

"I fully understand tether and can model any complex interactions, just think about Asia desks bro"

> Hmm, how does the accounting actually work?

"Keep 50m on FTX margin its safe because Alameda is like a big trading company"

> How does the 'best' liquidation engine work?

I just don't think you understand the paradigm. In general, bitcoiners don't care about debating with non-bitcoiners. We just let you think what you want and we keep accumulating and HODLing.

I know S2F has major beef with Cowen's model of lengthening cycles, and vice versa. So if you don't like S2F, you'll probably like Cowen's.

First, this is why I said "% of $" not "% of people". Clearly you "can" sell your full stack; the idea is you will be able to accurately identify the top. You may think it's 80k and we get there, you pull the trigger and sell your full stack, and then we rally to above 100k and you've failed.

Second, daily volume doesn't matter so much so long as it's roughly balanced between buys and sells. The problem is when it is unbalanced towards selling. If someone previously inactive (or a number of people combined) needed to sell 2% of all BTC (420k BTC), that could easily make the top. Tops in BTC have historically been made when large blocks of previously dormant coins wake up and get sold. We haven't seen low vol/choppy tops; they've been quite swift. If it takes only 2% of supply to make the top, it follows logically that a low % of the $ in the market can exit within x% of the top. We've already had several 20-30% dips this cycle. Lots of people thought they'd be the top, but so far we've rallied again to new highs every time.

Also really don't understand why you think you can get out within 20% of the top. You don't know what the top is. I don't know what the top is. The top could already be in. Maybe it's not even close. We also don't know if we will see 70+% drawdowns like in previous cycles. Maybe it will be shallower this time, or maybe it will be the same, idk.

To get out within 20% of the top, you'd have to be able to identify the top within 20%. Really unclear to me how or why you think you can do that. If the top is already in, you'd have to sell everything now (or have already sold it this past weekend).

Personally I sold 0 BTC and 0 ETH within 20% of the 2017-18 top. Highest BTC sells were ~15k and ETH ~1120. It's really f hard lol

BTC pulling back is the bullish thing that could happen. Pullbacks set us up to go higher in bull markets. Money printing isn't going to stop. California had a many-billion-dollar stimulus. I wonder if other states will. You know Biden and the central banks will continue to print and print.

This is chop to **** with retail and those who have poor bankroll management (retail). I'm just chilling and scaling in buys, sniping sales.

I don't necessarily disagree with you, but if I go the PR route I'm going to need to sell and re-buy once I move there to qualify for the tax treatment, so why not take a stab at top timing anyway and be a nice case study for the thread. FWIW - I don't think we are anywhere close, but hey I could be wrong.

Was this on the way up or on the way down?

Stop making things up. I have not recommended anybody does anything on FTX. In fact, my opinion is quite the opposite. All I'm stating re:Alameda is they are not going to just stop making markets, especially not on their own $10B exchange which is dependent on them making markets.

However, it's clear FTX liquidation engine is more favorable than binance/bybit/etc. From a high level idea of how it is designed, and looking at %s of open interest liquidated during certain periods by exchange.

I personally do not margin trade on CEXs, do not hold coins on CEXs, and do not hold Tether. Take that how you will.

It was on the way down for BTC, and on the way up for ETH.

I was pretty fortunate despite barely selling any near the top just due to good entries/conviction. I didn't sell any of my BTC until >100x from my entry and didn't sell any ETH until >250x. Accumulated a lot during the subsequent bear that I'm still holding, though I've made various sells at ~30k and ETH from 350 to 2400.

I try to always keep ~30% allocation to stablecoins because of farming and as a tax buffer in case prices nuke, I don't want to owe my entire portfolio to the IRS. So that translates to selling during violent rallies-- though often just selling my farm yields is enough and I don't have to sell any of my ETH stack. If you just hold/accumulate, you don't have to think about this nearly as much, but my strategy is very active bc of yield farming, which unfortunately generates tons of taxable events.

May also be headed for PR in the near future; my only regret is not going earlier :/

of course nobody knows where the top is, but last couple of tops have been around December, BTC dominance has been about 30% and s2f has worked well so far.

Does it mean thing will continue this way? no, but we can just speculate ...

Also it amazes me nobody seems to take in consideration that is very differently to move an asset 3-10X when it's a 100B cap than when it's 1 trillion. Not talking about people in here but in general